Welcome back. This week you are either battling in the finals or fighting in the semis for a chance to move on. Luckily, there are a number of prudent moves you can make to give you the best chance to win this week. Here to help you bring it all home this year are 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 24 Unsustainable Players.
If you are looking for further add/drop guidance, make sure to check out Kyle's stock watch or Michael's weekly planner from earlier this week.
From here on out, my approach to Unsustainable Players will be slightly different. At this point in the season, you don't have time to wait for a slumping player to turn it around. There will be a heavier focus on players who have favorable matchups as the classic unsustainable statistics are running out of time to regress to the mean!
Just because a player is unsustainably high does not mean they must be avoided. Often, a streaking player with favorable matchups for the week is exactly who you want to be streaming at this time of year. And as always, if you have any players that you want me to cover in future weeks, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter - @jchengWPG.
Without further ado, let's jump into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 24 Unsustainable Players!
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 24 Unsustainable Players
Unsustainably High
Matt Boldy, LW/RW, Minnesota Wild (81% rostered)
Matt Boldy has been lighting it up over the past two weeks, scoring nine goals and adding three assists through his past seven games. Over that stretch, he has two hattricks while averaging 19:37 per game.
These numbers are not sustainable. Inevitably, the goal-scoring will slow down. He is currently shooting at 34.6% over the past two weeks, nearly three times higher than the 11.8% he has averaged over the whole 2022-23 campaign. additionally, he has a whopping 5.4 goals-scored-above-expected (GSAx). This puts him on pace for nearly 62 GSAx over 82 games. Even the league's best snipers rarely exceed 10 GSAx over the course of a season.
March is Matt Boldy's month.@mnwild | #mnwild pic.twitter.com/dB1jhSv4Ic
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) March 28, 2023
Additionally, Minnesota does not have a very good schedule through the rest of this week. Minnesota plays the Avalanche on Wednesday and the Golden Knights on Saturday. With Saturday being such a heavy night around the league, Boldy might not even be cracking your lineup again this week. Even a below-average player from a team with three games left this week will help you more than Boldy.
Unsustainably Low
Lucas Raymond, RW, Detroit Red Wings (34% rostered)
One player that has suffered from the class "sophomore slump" has been Lucas Raymond. After a 57-point rookie campaign, the former fourth-overall pick has put up just 39 points in 64 games. He is also a -19 this season. His struggles have continued over the past two weeks. Raymond has not scored and has just three assists in his last seven games.
Lucas Raymond, mercifully, scores in the shootout and wins it for Detroit! 🚨 #LGRW pic.twitter.com/S4ezaeOwyl
— Ryan Hana (@RyanHanaWWP) March 22, 2023
Despite the struggles, Raymond is a very intriguing Fantasy option this week. For starters, Raymond's underlying statistics suggest he will turn it around soon. He currently has -1.8 GSAx, indicating that he is generating more chances than he is getting credit for. Additionally, his IPP of 60.0% and oiSH% of 7.1% both have some room for positive regression.
On top of this, Detroit has one of the best schedules remaining this week. They play three more games and do not play Saturday. This means you are very likely to get three starts out of Raymond, compared to one or two starts from other potential pickups you could make. The extra couple of games is really appealing, especially if you need that last-minute push.
Sustainably High
Owen Tippett, LW/RW, Philadelphia Flyers (25% rostered)
From one young star to another, Owen Tippett has been finding his groove as a member of the Philadelphia Flyers. On the season, Tippett has 21 goals and 19 assists through 67 games - just shy of a 50-point pace. Over the last two weeks, he is point-per-game, scoring three goals and adding three assists across six games.
OWEN TIPPET SNIPE! 2 points for Sanheim already! pic.twitter.com/AGLCgLnv3E
— Nasty Knuckles (@NastyKnuckles) November 20, 2022
The big thing that sticks out for me about Tippett's production is his shot volume. He has 19 shots over this hot streak. This puts him on pace for 260 shots on the season, putting him in elite company in terms of shot volume. This appears to be a broader pattern with Tippett as well. He has registered 46 shots through 11 games over the past month, which puts him on an even higher shot pace of 343. Inevitably, these shots will result in goals which will benefit your Fantasy team.
Owen Tippet throws a questionable hit on a Devils player. Suspension worthy? pic.twitter.com/nVUGXjCheO
— LIGHTS OUT HOCKEY (@Lightsouthky) October 14, 2022
On top of the high shot volume, Tippett and the Flyers are slated to play Thursday against the Senators, Saturday against the Sabres, and Sunday against the Penguins. All three teams have been particularly porous this year, which could translate to scoring success for Tippett. If you are looking to make an addition on Thursday, Tippett may just be your guy.
Jake DeBrusk, LW/RW, Boston Bruins (74% rostered)
On the season, DeBrusk has been impressive. After reportedly rescinding his trade request from the Bruins this summer, he has gone on to score 24 goals for a career-high 46 points through just 55 games this year. Over the past two weeks, he has been even more impressive, scoring four goals and adding three assists through seven games.
Sheeeesh, Jake DeBrusk 🔥 pic.twitter.com/3kVu3WDC5y
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 21, 2023
Several factors make DeBrusk a great addition to your roster this week. First, he has been stapled to a line with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand all season long. While both of those franchise cornerstones are getting older, Father Time has not seemed to affect their production yet this season. Further, in Taylor Hall's absence, DeBrusk has been seeing time on the top powerplay unit. It is going to happen that when you play on the same powerplay as Marchand and David Pastrnak, you will put up points.
Jake DeBrusk’s winner in the shootout: pic.twitter.com/LCUV9X89mB
— Evan Marinofsky (@EvanMarinofsky) March 27, 2023
Finally, Boston has a very favourable schedule throughout the rest of the week. They play the Blue Jackets, Penguins, and Blues. Two of those teams are actively tanking for a chance to draft Connor Bedard. Pittsburgh has been struggling to keep the puck out of their net. Overall, DeBrusk may end up being one of the best additions you can make this week.
Sustainably Low
Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens (65% rostered)
Now is the time in the Fantasy Hockey season when you have to cut ties with players that under normal circumstances, it would unthinkable to drop. Depending on your league, one of these players is Nick Suzuki. With 23 goals and 38 assists through 74 games, Suzuki is flirting with crossing the 70-point mark for the first time in his career. He will need to turn things around from his recent production to get there. He has no points over his last two games and is a -3 over that stretch.
Connor Murphy lays a hit on Nick Suzuki, and Josh Anderson gets slapped with a 2-minute instigator, 10-minute misconduct and 5 for fighting. #Blackhawks pic.twitter.com/sCfmPSm8w5
— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) February 15, 2023
While I think it would be a great story for the young star to make it to the coveted 70-point plateau, I am not banking my Fantasy season on it. Suzuki has seen his ice time gradually decrease as the season has gone on and the Canadiens focus on playing some of their young prospects. He is averaging 21:17 over the whole season. This drops to 20:43 over the past month, 19:51 over the past two weeks, and 18:59 over the past week. If this trend continues, I would not be afraid to drop Suzuki for a player with a higher ceiling.
Further, Montreal plays just two more games this week. They play Thursday against the Panthers and Saturday against the Hurricanes. Bobrovsky has been solid in Florida, trying to drag a struggling Panthers team into the playoffs. And Carolina is, once again, one of the best defensive teams in the NHL. If you were hoping for Suzuki to put on an offensive clinic, this week is not the week it is going to happen.
Closing
And with that, we wrap up our coverage of the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 24 Unsustainable Players.
Every Tuesday throughout this season we will be looking at the hottest and coldest players in the league. If you have any players that you want me to cover, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter @jchengWPG.
Advanced stats and analytics are taken from Natural Stat Trick.
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