2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 25 Stock Watch

The Final Countdown

by Kyle Vaughan
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 25 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 25 Stock Watch. This will be the last Stock Watch article of the season. Good luck in the last few days of your campaign.

Below I'll take a look at some players who are doing various things. And I'll tell you why I think those things have made said players more or less valuable.

Don’t forget to check out the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

All statistics from DobberHockey unless otherwise stated. Wednesday's games are not included as part of the analysis below.

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 25 Stock Watch

Stock Up

Alexis Lafreniere, LW, New York Rangers (24% rostered)

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It's insane to me that Alexis Lafreniere is only 21 years old. I feel like he was labeled a bust five years ago, but he's only been in the league since the 2020-21 season. Since the 2020 draft, when he was selected first overall, his career has had some ups and downs, but mostly downs. Any short-term increase in production would lead to speculation that he was finally going to reach his potential, only to have the offense dry up a few weeks later.

And, wouldn't you know it, Lafreniere is on one of those heaters at the moment. But I don't care what he'll do in the playoffs, next season, or the rest of his career. All I care about is the next two weeks.

Now, you'll probably wander over to Daily Faceoff, peruse the NHL line combinations section, and spit out your orange mocha frappuccino when you see that he is playing on the third line and second unit powerplay. But don't close this window just yet.

The third line of Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil, and Kappo Kakko is doing that good hockey this season. Head on over to Natural Stat Trick's line tool and you'll see that this line has a goals-for percentage of 62.5 in over 477 minutes of ice time together. That's a huge sample size with strong production.

For context, when Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl played together this season (465 minutes), their goals-for percentage is 57.14.

I know picking one number is never a good practice. McDrai has an expected goals-for of 58.6 percent, whereas Lafreniere and company sit at 52.8 percent. But you shouldn't care about regression right now. You should care about hotness.

And Lafreniere is as hot as a two-dollar pistol. He has six points over his last five games. His ice time has increased steadily over his last six games to 17:30 against the Capitals on Sunday. That's over two minutes more than his season average.

Oh, and Lafreniere's 'third' line has played the most at five on five of any Rangers' line over the last three games. By more than 12 minutes. Gerrard Gallant like's what these boys are bringing to the table, and you should, too.

Morgan Frost, C, Philadelphia Flyers (13% rostered)

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Travis Konecny is back on the ice for the Flyers just in time for the playoffs and he's tearing it up. But I suspect he is already owned in your league. Now is a good time to turn to someone who is Konecny adjacent.

You won't find a better candidate than Morgan Frost. He is centering Konecny on Philadelphia's top line, and the first unit powerplay.

Konecny has been back for three games and in that time Frost has four points and seven shots. But the good news is he doesn't rely on Konecny for his production. He had eight points and fourteen shots in the five games prior to Konecny's return.

Take a peek to see if Frost is on your waiver wire. He's an ideal addition for the last few days of your season.

Alex Lyon, G, Florida Panthers (12% rostered)

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Sergei Bobrovsky has missed Florida's last four games with an illness. With Spencer Knight in the NHL's player assistance program, the Panthers' turned to Alex Lyon in the net. And now things are confusing.

Lyon was stellar in those four games. He posted a shutout in one and didn't allow more than two goals in the other three. Due to Lyon's strong play and his 6.72 goals saved above average, the Panthers won all four games and improved their wildcard odds in the East.

Florida lost the last three games Bobrosvsky started prior to his illness. He is considered day-to-day and could return very soon. But if you were the Panthers, what would you do? Play the 30-year-old on a hot streak who has only started 35 NHL games? Or your inconsistent $10 million starter?

I think at this juncture of the season, in the midst of a dogfight for the last wildcard spot, you need to play the guy who gives you the best chance to win. Right now I think that's Lyon. He only has to start one or two of Florida's last four games to be fantasy relevant.

If you are in need of a solid goalie streamer, take a look at Lyon.

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Stock Down

John Gibson, G, Anaheim Ducks (42% rostered)

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For some reason, John Gibson is owned in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues. If he is on your roster, I strongly suggest you drop him in favor of some better options on the waiver wire.

Gibson hasn't won a hockey game since March 10. He hasn't posted a quality start since March 19. He has allowed five or more goals in five of his last six starts. This season he has posted a career-worst .899 save percentage and an -8.99 goals saved above average.

The Ducks have four games left this season and Gibson will be hard to trust in any of those matchups. The only game I'd consider starting him is this Saturday night's tilt with the Arizona Coyotes. But Gibson's status may be up in the air as he missed Wednesday night's game against the Oilers with an illness.

Gibson doesn't bring enough to the table to warrant a roster spot in the last week of your season. Cut bait immediately.

Noah Dobson, D, New York Islanders (86% rostered)

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After scoring zero goals in their last 11 powerplays, it appears The New York Islanders are shaking things up. At practice earlier this week, it was Ryan Pulock and Samuel Bolduc getting the defensive minutes on the top unit. Noah Dobson was bumped to the second unit.

Dobson has had a pretty good season thus far, scoring 43 points in 74 games. But he's hit a cold patch recently and hasn't registered a point in his last five games. The Islanders are in a tough battle with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers for a wildcard spot and can't afford to lose any of their remaining four games.

But the demotion significantly impacts Dobson's fantasy value. Most of his minutes at even strength come as a third-pairing defenseman, so he relies heavily on the man advantage to maintain a rosterable level of production.

Now that he has lost his powerplay time, I suggest you look for better players on the waiver wire. A good option would be Minnesota defenseman John Klingberg, who is currently quarterbacking the top powerplay for the Wild.

 


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