2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 4 Stock Watch

by Kyle Vaughan
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 4 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 4 Stock Watch.

Below I'll take a look at some players who are doing various things. And I'll tell you why I think those things have made said players more or less valuable.

Don’t forget to check out the other great Fantasy Hockey content at Fantasy Six Pack.

All statistics from DobberHockey unless otherwise stated. Wednesday's games are not included as part of the analysis below.

2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 4 Stock Watch

Stock Up

Hampus Lindholm, D, Boston Bruins (76% rostered)

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How about Hampus Lindholm? He has 11 points in ten games to start the year and is quarterbacking the red-hot Bruins' top powerplay unit. His average time on ice is a robust 24:26 with 3:40 of that coming on the powerplay.

Lindholm had four points in a comeback win over Pittsburgh on Tuesday, including the game-winning goal in overtime. What's not to like? Well a lot, actually.

I usually focus on players with ownership below 50 percent. I will make exceptions from time to time if there is a good enough reason to do so. With Lindholm, the reason is you need to sell him. Immediately.

The Bruins' have a medical staff who work in the realm of black magic. They voodoo'd Brad Marchand back nearly a month early from a double hip replacement. It sounds like they might have a fresh cauldron brewing in the bowels of TD Gardens with eye of newt and fox tail with Charlie McAvoy's name on it.

McAvoy had off-season shoulder surgery. His timeline for return was initially estimated to be sometime in December. However, McAvoy was spotted at Bruins practice this week, leading some speculators to speculate he could be back as early as next week. I am not a doctor and have no idea.

What I do know, is that McAvoy's return almost certainly spells the end of Lindholm's time on the top unit. I also know that Matt Grzelcyk (the best last name in the NHL) has been eating into Lindholm's powerplay time already.

Lindholm has an elevated shooting percentage of 16.7 percent, which is way above his three-year average of four percent. His PDO is the highest it's ever been in his career.

What I'm saying is trade this man while he is hot. Either Lindholm is the best offensive defenseman in the NHL, or his numbers are elevated due to unsustainable deployment and production. Use him to pry another player off to a slow start away from some other manager if you can. His stock is up, but not for long. And that can help you.

Jaden Schwartz, LW, Seattle Kraken (27% rostered)

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Jaden Schwartz has four twenty-goal seasons to his name, and he has shown before that he can tickle the point-per-game mark. But few NHLers have been nipped by the injury bug like Schwartz. Over the course of his career, which spans 11 years, Schwartz has never played an entire season.

When he is healthy, though, he's a solid NHL forward with some fine offensive skills. He also shoots, hits, and blocks shots at serviceable rates for fantasy managers.

This year things look promising for the 2010 14th overall pick. He finds himself on a line with Matty Beniers and fellow NHL veteran (and former first-round pick) Jordan Eberle. The 19-year-old Beniers is off to a torrid start, and Schwartz is currently benefiting from the youngster's offensive acumen.

Schwartz has ten points through 11 games. Four of those points have come on the man-advantage, as Schwartz is getting steady play on Seattle's top unit. The Kraken are off to a fine start this year, with wins over Los Angeles, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Calgary. Their powerplay is clicking, thanks in part to the play of Schwartz. His stock is on the rise.

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators (27% rostered)

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Josh Norris suffered a potentially season-ending shoulder injury last week, opening up a spot in Ottawa's top six. In a head-scratching move, Derick Brassard was given the first crack at filling that hole. But as of the Senators' last game on November 1, it's Shane Pinto picking up the top-six slack.

Pinto centered Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat and registered 16:30 of ice time in a 4-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Just over two minutes of that time came on the Senators' second powerplay unit.

The 2019 second-round pick was off to a hot start before his promotion, racking up seven points through the team's first nine games. Let's temper our expectations here - Pinto has six goals with a 40 percent shooting percentage. But that was before he found himself in the top six. That 40 percent mark will come down, but his playing time should increase, and his production should remain rosterable given his improved linemates.

If the University of North Dakota product can hang in the top six, he might become a free agent add that finds a permanent home on your team.

Stock Down

Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings (96% rostered)

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Last year Moritz Seider put the league on notice as a 20-year-old rookie when he played 82 games, registered 50 points, and won the Calder trophy for the league's top rookie of the year. In that campaign, he played 23:02 a night, with nearly three minutes of that coming on the powerplay. Seider racked up 21 powerplay points and was a staple on Detroit's first unit.

If you looked hard enough, you could find a few small cracks in Seider's armor, such as nearly half his points being secondary assists. But he was so impressive, that he would be a star in the NHL for years to come seemed to be a foregone conclusion. The kid dominated.

His play last season catapulted him into the earlier rounds of fantasy drafts this year. Some managers took him with their fifth or sixth picks ahead of guys like Kris Letang, Rasmus Dahlin, and Shea Theodore.

The results have not been great thus far. Seider has two points in nine games. His time on ice is down nearly a minute from last year. Perhaps most concerning is his reduction in powerplay time and splitting the first unit duties with Filip Hronek, who has six points in nine games. In Detroit's last three games Seider has been on the ice for only 30 percent of the Red Wings' man-advantage time, compared to Hronek's 41 percent.

His stock is down, and that might be good for you if you don't already own him. Seider has great peripheral stat coverage in the form of blocks, shots, and (to a lesser extent) penalty minutes. Meaning even if it takes a little while for the offense to come around, he can be a valuable fantasy asset.

Another sign for hope - in Detroit's last game Seider played nearly 90 percent of the powerplay to Hronek's ten percent. It only amounted to about forty seconds, but I think it illustrates the Red Wings aren't dumb. Seider will get a fair opportunity to run the powerplay over the course of the season.

Anyone who watched Seider last year knows how gifted he is. It's only a matter of time before he figures it out. It could be tomorrow, next week, or next month, but I'm banking on a turnaround sooner than later. And when it happens I want him on my team.

Elvis Merzilikins, G, Columbus Blue Jackets (46% rostered)

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This will be short and sweet...or sour, I guess?

Elvis Merzilikins is off to a rough start this year. He has registered only two wins in seven appearances. Dobber Hockey has a stat for goalies titled "really bad start". It's where a netminder posts a save percentage below .850 over the course of a game. Merzilikins has earned three "really bad starts" thus far.

He has given up 29 goals and posted a positive goals-saved-above-average in only one start this year. With Joonas Korpisalo's return to the Blue Jackets scheduled to occur in the coming days, there is little reason to roster Merzilikins.

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