Happy U.S. Thanksgiving to my American readers! As you are getting ready to digest that extra piece of pumpkin pie this weekend, sit back and buckle up because we are diving headfirst into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Unsustainable Players.
If you are looking for further add/drop guidance, make sure to check out Kyle's stock watch or Michael's Weekly Planner from earlier this week.
And as always, if you have any players that you want me to cover in future weeks, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter - @jchengWPG.
Without further ado, let's jump into the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Unsustainable Players!
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Unsustainable Players
Unsustainably High
Jamie Benn, C/LW, Dallas Stars (73% rostered)
While he may not be the player he once was, Jamie Benn has been electric as of late. Benn has been teaming up with Tyler Seguin on the Stars' (expensive) second line, and they have been helping to propel the Stars to first in the Central Division.
Over the past two weeks, Benn has put up four goals and five assists through seven games. This puts him on a 105-point pace, which would be a career-best, exceeding his Art Ross-winning 2015 season by over 15 points.
However, an exceptionally high individual points percentage (IPP) and on-ice shooting percentage (oiSH%) have been propelling this recent resurgence.
BENN JUST WENT DOWN pic.twitter.com/YKJFOOxhDZ
— Spittin' Chiclets (@spittinchiclets) November 22, 2022
Benn's four goals have come on just 10 shots translating to a 40% shooting percentage. Benn also has a league-worst 3.33 goals-above-expected, indicating that most, if not all of these goals have come as a result of fluky bounces or bad goaltending.
Additionally, Benn is currently sporting a 19.6% oiSH% and an 81.9% IPP. This oiSH% is over double the 9.5% he and his linemates have averaged over the past three seasons. Further, his IPP is nearly a third higher than the 65.2% that we have come to expect from the power forward. When the luck starts to run dry, I would expect Benn to only score at about half of his current pace. In most leagues, 50-55 point players are a dime a dozen on the waiver wire.
Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (89% rostered)
While perennial Norris Trophy candidate Victor Hedman has struggled, Mikhail Sergachev has picked up the slack. If you were a Montreal fan who did not like the trade that sent Sergachev to the Lightning in exchange for Jonathan Drouin before, you are certainly hating that trade now.
Over the past two weeks, Sergachev has been a menace on the ice. He has potted a pair of goals and added six assists over seven games.
There are two concerns I have that suggest that Sergachev's production may be a flash in the pan.
It was an absolute gem from Mikhail Sergachev last night against the Caps. He put up 2 goals and 2 assists for his first ever 4-point game! Not only that, he was all over the game sheet with 2 PPP, the game- winner and 3 hits. This is first ever FPOTN! #FantasyHockey #GoBolts pic.twitter.com/rsLTDxvs6t
— The Fantasy Hockey Bros (@FntsyHockeyBros) November 14, 2022
For starters, Sergachev has an IPP of 80.0% - nearly double the 46% he put up last year. This has been pretty consistent as he also has an average IPP of 46% over the past three seasons. Even during his historic offensive season last year, Roman Josi's IPP finished at 63%. We will eventually see some regression in this department, and I would not be surprised to see this finish right around last year's mark of 46%.
Additionally, while Sergachev is seeing some increase in ice time, a big chunk of that time is being spent in the defensive zone. This year, just 43.5% of his shifts have started at the offensive end of the ice, compared to 54.1% over the past three seasons. And believe it or not, it is harder to put the puck in the back of the net when you start 200 feet from the opposing goal.
Unsustainably Low
Tanner Jeannot, RW, Nashville Predators (45% rostered)
After a breakout rookie campaign that saw Tanner Jeannot finish seventh in Calder voting, this season has been disappointing. Call it a sophomore slump if you want but put simply, Jeannot has not been good enough.
Through 19 games, Jeannot has just four points. Over the past two weeks, he has not registered a single point in seven games. This is simply not someone worthy of a roster spot in all but the deepest leagues.
But now may be the time to look at adding the young power forward.
Despite not scoring, Jeannot has been shooting. He has 13 shots, giving him 7.3 shots/60 over the past two weeks. This is over 25% higher than the 5.8 shots/60 that Jeannot registered last season. Eventually, these shots will turn into goals.
An absolute Donnybrook between Reavo and Tanner Jeannot ?pic.twitter.com/dGKMC3jvAc
— Missin Curfew (@MissinCurfew) November 13, 2022
Additionally, Jeannot is still churning out the peripherals. Despite not scoring, he does have 24 hits, 6 blocks, and a fight over the past two weeks.
Going forward, I would expect Jeannot to start to find the scoresheet with some regularity. While he will never be a 70-point player, 35-40 points in addition to the additional category coverage he provides should make him a valuable depth piece on your team.
Bryan Rust, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (73% rostered)
This season has been an up-and-down year for the Pittsburgh Penguins and Bryan Rust. Fresh off of a six-year contract extension, Rust started the year hot with five points in his first three games.
However, since then, it has taken him 16 games to log his next five points. This dry spell included a seven-game pointless streak.
Over the past two weeks, Rust has just one goal and one assist - both of which came in the same game. He has also added just eight shots over those seven games. I do believe Rust has what it takes to turn things around.
For starters, Rust is still playing alongside elite players. Even though he is getting older, Evgeni Malkin has shown that he still has what it takes to be an elite center in the NHL. He rode into his 1,000th game this week on a seven-game point streak. Playing alongside Malkin at even strength should eventually translate into points.
Sidney Crosby steals the puck from Hellebuyck and sets up Bryan Rust for the easy empty net tally!#LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/g6Vu5fXNzA
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights (@HockeyDaily365) November 20, 2022
Additionally, Rust has his place on the first powerplay unit locked up. Give me someone playing alongside Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, and Malkin on the man advantage all day long.
I would expect Rust to start racking up the points soon. His 25% IPP (63.8% last year) will not be able to stay this low forever.
Sustainably High
Viktor Arvidsson, LW/RW, Los Angeles Kings (24% rostered)
When Los Angeles acquired Viktor Arvidsson before the start of the 2021-22 season, they were hoping to revitalize the winger's career.
Arvidsson was coming off of back-to-back disappointing seasons with Nashville after being a perennial 60-point player in the three years prior. What L.A. got instead was another injury-riddled season that saw Arvidsson put up just 49 points.
This year, however, Arvidsson looks healthy and has been a force on the ice. Playing alongside Phillip Danault on the Kings' second line, he has amassed 14 points in 19 games - once again on pace for 60 points. Over the past two weeks, Arvidsson has taken his game to another level, racking up six assists in seven games.
Viktor Arvidsson couldn’t even believe he made this save ?
? @LAKings pic.twitter.com/pcTHtF715U
— The Athletic NHL (@TheAthleticNHL) November 17, 2022
The thing with Arvidsson is that all of his underlying statistics suggest this 60-70 point player is the real deal. Arvidsson's IPP is missing at 70% on the season - slightly down from the 72% he finished with last year. Additionally, his oiSH% is sitting at a respectable 10.8%. While this is slightly higher than the 8.6% he registered last season, I would not be surprised to see him finish around where he is now.
Additionally, on the season Arvidsson has a negative goals-above-expected at -1.84. This indicates that he is generating more scoring chances than he is finishing on. This bodes well for Fantasy GMs who may be looking for an additional goal or two from a depth piece in their lineup.
Sustainably Low
Evan Bouchard, D, Edmonton Oilers (65% rostered)
Evan Bouchard was supposed to be the D-man of the future for the Edmonton Oilers. Going into this season, he was being drafted in the eighth round, ahead of perennial minute-munchers like Seth Jones, Charlie McAvoy, and Thomas Chabot.
Much of this optimism was driven by the hope that Bouchard would cement his place on the Oilers' first powerplay alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. However, it has become evident that the role of powerplay quarterback remains on the shoulders of Tyson Barrie for now.
Through 19 games this year, Bouchard has averaged 19:11 time on ice. This is less than the 19:48 that he averaged last season.
Evan Bouchard, the shinpad assassin…. Little patience here and he has a really clean look past a sliding defender. pic.twitter.com/p0IA6R6sNj
— World Hockey Report (@worldhockeyrpt) November 22, 2022
Additionally, he is playing just 37% of Edmonton's powerplay time. This is a far cry from the 50+% powerplay share that Fantasy GMs were hoping for at the start of the season.
If you currently are holding Bouchard hoping for a turnaround, it may be best to cut your ties. There are plenty of other defensemen on the waiver wire who will provide you with more upside than what Bouchard can offer.
Closing
And with that, we wrap up our coverage of the 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Week 7 Unsustainable Players.
Every Tuesday throughout this season we will be looking at the hottest and coldest players in the league. If you have any players that you want me to cover, be sure to leave a comment down below or reach out to me via Twitter @jchengWPG.
Advanced stats and analytics are taken from Natural Stat Trick.
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