The best way to describe my published props last week is "close but no cigar". I am really hoping my 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge prop bets picks are better.
Despite not making a profit last week, I did still manage to get more half than of my money back with the Justin Thomas victory.
Winning another major is going to mean far more for Thomas than it is for us. But it certainly helped our ledger, which now looks like this:
- Balance Coming Into Last Week: +17.95 Units
- Units Wagered on PGA Championship: 3 Units
- Units Won (gross winnings): 2 Units
- Net Profit YTD: +16.95 Units
The 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge takes us back to Texas to Colonial Country Club to see if Jason Kokrak can defend his victory here last year. I like Kokrak this week, but I prefer someone with deeper Texas roots this week.
It will likely come as little surprise but read below to see who it is.
2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Prop Bets Picks
Top Continental European Player: Viktor Hovland (-165 on DK; -130 on FD) - Half Unit
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But first, we are going to start with a very conservative bet. For our half unit, we are only going to win .8 unit total on DK if this hits. And on FD, it's closer to .9 units). But I am pretty confident it hits. This one is pretty simple. Viktor Hovland is currently 7th in the OWGR. Stephen Jaeger, Rory Sabbatini, Mattias Schwab, and Paul Barjon are not even in the top 100. End of story.
One of the safest bets on the board.
All Top 20 Finish (+4900 FanDuel) - Quarter Unit
We go from very conservative to very aggressive as the odds on this alone tell you how aggressive it is. But at almost 50-1, it feels like we are getting a little bit of value on something that is very possible to hit. How do I know it is very possible? Because that's exactly what happened here last year! All four of these golfers finished in the top 20 last year.
Now, take pause, as it is worth noting that there was an 11-way tie for 20th place last year. But all four of these golfers are having decent years again. Ancer and Finau are 19th and 21st in the OWGR, so it doesn't take a lot of imagination to see them finishing in the top 20 again this week.
Gooch is currently 11th on the FedEx Rankings. Not counting the partner match play of the Zurich Classic (where he finished T-21st), Gooch has finished in the top 20 in four of the last four tournaments he alone has made the cut. He has two missed cuts within those, but again, if he makes the cut, I like him to finish in the top 20 again.
In addition to needing Gooch to make the cut so he can finish in the top 20, the Berger piece is a little risky as well. Granted, Berger is 28th in the OWGR, so a top 20 finish isn't so wild. But Berger has been all over the place this season, including a missed cut last week. He hasn't had a top 20 since March, but March saw him add a T-13 at the Players Championship to a string of five other top 20s in his previous six tournaments. But I suspect Berger's top 15 in both driving accuracy and SG: Tee to Green will be enough to carry him within our necessary mark. At 49-1, it's easily worth the quarter unit risk.
But enough of this mid-range stuff. Let's jump to the top.
Jordan Spieth Top Five Finish (+300 on DK; +340 on FD) - One Unit
Jordan Spieth To Win (+1200 both FD/DK) - Quarter Unit
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Yep, love me some Spieth this week! First off, Spieth brings with him the advantage of being the local boy with thorough knowledge of this course. And that includes a second-place finish here last year.
Spieth has been playing pretty well lately and currently sits ninth in the OWGR and tenth in the FedEx. I feel like he finally might put it all together and we see a little Spieth magic this weekend. Then again, when you're currently top 40 in five Shots Gained categories (Off the Tee (26th), Approach the Green (13th), Around the Green (39th), Tee to Green (8th), and Total (33) ), do really need any magic?
There is no Triple Crown race this weekend, but Jordan Spieth is the horse I'm betting on this week.
So, just two units wagered this week for my 2022 Charles Schwab Challenge Prop Bets Picks. As always, follow me on Twitter, as I will likely post additional bets later in the week. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!
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