2022 College Football Championship Week Picks

by Aaron Ogdahl
2022 College Football Picks

Welcome to my 2022 College Football Championship Week Picks!

Championship Week is here! Two spots will remain occupied in the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome. Win or lose, Michigan and Georgia will claim two spots, most likely 1 & 2.

Last week, I thought USC would get into the CFP and now was the time to buy Heisman tickets on Caleb Williams. I hope you grabbed them. Let's quickly look at a rundown of what can happen with the remaining two spots in the CFP.

  • If USC wins, they're in.
  • If TCU beats Kansas St, they're in.
  • If USC or TCU loses, welcome in Ohio State again.
  • If USC and TCU BOTH lose, welcome in Ohio State and dare I say it, Alabama...I think the committee would select Bama with their starting QB over Tennessee without Hendon Hooker.

I don't know what's going to happen in the CFP, but I'll definitely be watching... Here are 4 games and 5 picks to make some money while watching the excitement of championship week.

Follow me on Twitter @OgdahlAnalytics or through the action network (Ogdahl_Analytics) to see when I bet each game to maximize your closing line value. Additionally, visit my website for betting previews and model projections in a variety of sports, including FCS Football!

2022 College Football Championship Week Picks

Conference USA: North Texas @ UTSA

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The Market: Line opened at -9.5 to the Roadrunners and has since ticked down to -8.5.  Bet % and Money % both coming in on North Texas and their 29-year-old QB Austin Aune

The Model: My model likes Frank Harris and the Roadrunners by 12.31.

The Rationale: The market says bet North Texas and the model says to bet the Roadrunners. This is truly a conundrum for yours truly. Both quarterbacks are good and both defenses leave a lot of room for these talented QB's to make things happen. These two teams played to a 31-27 game in October. UTSA racked up 500 yards of offense to North Texas' 350, basically all through the air. I think the model is right on this one and we have to take UTSA, even with the familiarity. However, I'm adding the over as well. They had 9 points in the first half and still got to 58 last game.

The Pick: UTSA -8.5 and Over 68

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