2022 College Football Week 10 Picks

by Aaron Ogdahl
2022 College Football Picks

We're getting down to it. It seems like yesterday we were watching opening week, and now we're in the heart of conference play, MACtion season, and CFP rankings/arguments.

Tennessee is the new #1 team in the nation and honestly, their resume proves it. Yet, they go in as 9 points dogs to Georgia Between the Hedges in what should be an all-time classic game this weekend. 8-0 TCU sits behind one loss Alabama, and Clemson sits in front of Michigan. There will be jostling among the top 10 teams as the final weeks of the season win, and we will be here to watch it all unravel. Some marquee matchups to watch this Saturday:

  • #1 Tennessee (8-0) @ #3 Georgia (8-0)
  • #6 Alabama (7-1) @ #10 LSU (6-2)
  • #24 Texas (5-3) @ #13 Kansas St (6-2)
  • #4 Clemson (8-0) @ Notre Dame (5-3)
  • #21 Wake Forest (6-2) @ #22 NC State (6-2)

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2022 College Football Week 10 Picks

Central Michigan Chippewas @ Northern Illinois Huskies

This is a game I was on EARLY and if you follow my model you can see I grabbed the number early at -4 for a couple of reasons

  1. I had this modeled at 6.17 to the Huskies, largely without Rocky Lombardi (QB) factored into the model
  2. I thought Rocky Lombardi was going to play - and he is?
  3. I can't quit Northern Illinois

Let's first look at the Chips of Central Michigan. They lost 2 starting tackles to the NFL last year and this has largely stymied their impressive running attack. This is largely to blame for their 2-6 record. Lew Nichols III is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry (5.4 in 2021). The loss of these outstanding linemen has proven to be devastating not only to the run game, but to the pass game as well.

Daniel Richardson is a good QB. Last year he had a QB Rating of 151.7 and this year it has regressed to 120.7. Now here's the tricky spot. Jase Bauer actually replaced Richardson in the last game against Bowling Green and he could be an X-factor. He is extremely talented running the ball as had over 100 yards and then added 186 through the air last week against Bowling Green. Yes, one run of 60 yards helped the campaign, but Bauer should get at least 1/2 the snaps in this matchup, if not the outright start.

Northern Illinois will need to attack the Chips through the air and if Lombardi plays, they can absolutely do that. I'm more in the camp he does play coming off a BYE week. The previous game week against Ohio, he was expected to start and then inexplicably was out. We don't know the injury, but I think with the extra time and the expectation to start 17 days ago, when playing the previous week, Lombardi will be in. He's magic.

With him in, I have Northern Illinois with a huge advantage having a gunslinger at QB. I would put this number closer to -9 or -10 if he starts, so for me, grabbing the number at -4 was crucial.

The Play: Northern Illinois -4

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