2022 College Football Week 11 Picks

by Aaron Ogdahl
2022 College Football Picks

Week 11 is upon us. The CFP is approaching quickly and we are likely without the usual suspects this year. Perennial juggernauts Alabama and Clemson both suffered devastating losses to their CFP campaign and this leaves the door wide open for some new blood.

My playoff prediction for the 4 teams at the end of the year.

  1. Georgia
  2. Ohio St
  3. Tennessee
  4. Oregon

Will Michigan be right there as well? Absolutely. But how could the committee put in 4 teams from 2 conferences. One thing is for sure; drama will ensue for the remaining weeks of the football season.

This Saturday doesn't have a ton of top 25 matchups, but there are good games to be seen, like every Saturday including the likes of

  • TCU @ Texas in Austin
  • Alabama @ Ole Miss in the Grove.
  • Georgia @ Mississippi State
  • North Carolina @ Wake Forest in what could feature 1000 points.

Let's dive into the action and see if we can make some money in places, starting with MACtion tonight

Follow me on Twitter @OgdahlAnalytics or through the action network (Ogdahl_Analytics) to see when I bet each game to maximize your closing line value. Additionally, visit my website for betting previews and model projections in a variety of sports, including FCS Football!

2022 College Football Week 11 Picks

Georgia Bulldogs @ Mississippi St Bulldogs

Let's give credit to where credit is due. Stetson Bennett looked calm, cool, and collected and Georgia systematically put the Volunteers in place. It got scary there for a second when Tennessee almost snuck a backdoor cover, but this game really wasn't that close, even with a final score of 27-13. Everybody on Tennessee last week (myself included), should've read that line movement and bet percentages. The play was Georgia based on the market. Kudos to those of you who bought those Georgia tickets at such a big number.

Embed from Getty Images

But, even with Georgia being as good as they are, this may be the time to go against them. Mississippi State comes in after squeaking out an OT victory against Auburn. Nothing impressive. Georgia is at the top of every poll in everyone's minds and you'll have to pay the tax if you want to bet on them again.

It's time to sell high.

The line opened at 18.5 and sharper money has brought that below 17. I think this is a classic overreaction from the books, knowing full well people will be putting their money on Georgia just shy of a key number in 17. The play here is either Mississippi St or nothing.

I'll be on the Bulldogs as I have this game at 13.8. It's tough to bet against the Bulldogs in watching how good they were on Saturday, but I'm going to trust my market read and system here. Stark-Vegas is not an easy place to play...

The Play: Mississippi State +16.5

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