2022 College Football Week 13 Picks

by Aaron Ogdahl
2022 College Football Picks

What a wild year it's been.

Now, Rivalry Week is here; Conference Championships follows; and then of course, bowl games and the CFP Playoff. Here are my projections for the CFP

There are the top 4:

1. Georgia
2. Ohio St
3. USC
4. Michigan

I think Caleb Williams and Lincoln Riley find their way into the CFP. They will need to handle their business against a pesky Notre Dame team and then win the Pac-12 Championship. I think they accomplish this. It would then require a fall from grace from TCU's miracle season. However, I'm going to go ahead and say that TCU loses the Big 12 championship game. This of course sparks debate among Michigan, USC, and TCU. Would TCU be deserving of the CFP? Absolutely. But let's be real, the money points the compass in college football and USC and Michigan would be selected over TCU.

AKA: now is the time to buy futures on the Trojans and Caleb Williams to win the Heisman

Follow me on Twitter @OgdahlAnalytics or through the action network (Ogdahl_Analytics) to see when I bet each game to maximize your closing line value. Additionally, visit my website for betting previews and model projections in a variety of sports, including FCS Football!

2022 College Football Week 13 Picks

The Pick: Toledo Rockets -7.5

The Market: Money coming in on Western Michigan. Line opened at 7.5. Line continues to be at 7.5

The Model: My model has Toledo winning by 10.16

The Rationale: Yes, Toledo just lost to Bowling Green last week. Yes, Toledo is 0-4 ATS over their last 4 games. Yes, Toledo really has nothing to play for in this game. Who would try to catch this falling knife? I'm here for it. The money is coming in against the Rockets, naturally, and I can't blame them. But Western Michigan can't score. Toledo can. This spread is too low and I'll be riding the Rockets and my model to cover the 7.5.

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