Last week's preview went 6-0-1. What an awesome way to bring in Week 4. On the season, my record improves to 69-48-5
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Week 4 usually demarcates a time when teams generally are done with their warm-up games (Don't ask Texas A&M about that). Enter conference play and some marquee matchups including Texas and Texas Tech. Minnesota and Michigan St. Tennessee and Florida and...Kansas and Duke?!
I've got more winners for you in Week 4. Let's get to the action.
2022 College Football Week 4 Picks
James Madison Dukes @ Appalachian State Mountaineers
Now, if it seems like I play a lot of the "non-marquee" matchups, there's a reason for that. As a bettor, we want to attack softer markets. Money spends the same regardless if it's Tennessee and Florida or James Madison and App State.
App State is riding high and coming off an unthinkable win over Troy after having College Gameday come to town.
APP STATE WON ON A HAIL MARY ON THE FINAL PLAY‼️ pic.twitter.com/yDlzYYtU19
— ESPN (@espn) September 17, 2022
If there is one team that is due for a hangover (both literally and figuratively in this case), it's the Mountaineers. The public just watched App State beat Texas A&M and then Troy in dramatic fashion and thus, has the nation's attention and perception of being good. Now, I'm not saying Chase Brice and Camerun Peoples aren't good, because they are. But, this is where we can attack the underbelly of the market. People see App State as good and James Madison as a brand new FBS school after coming from the FCS.
For those of you who are not followers of the FCS (I make picks and love betting the FCS every week; you can see all my action early Saturday morning here at Ogdahl_Analytics), James Madison is an outstanding team with outstanding talent. Todd Centeio, a relatively decent QB at Colorado St, transferred in to play QB for the Dukes and will be ready for his Fun Belt conference play debut in Boone, NC.
JMU absolutely trounced MTSU and Centeio amassed, who is actually better than people initially thought. And this makes sense. MTSU gets blown out by a brand new FBS school? They must be bad! But that may not be the case. The case may be that MTSU isn't really bad, JMU is actually really good. They have a stout defense and can move the ball effectively on offense.
The market opened with App st as-7.5 point favorites, it moved to 8 and then sharps have brought this back down to -7. I grabbed JMU at +8 and suggest grabbing them before it drops below the key number of 7. My model has JMU as slight favorites over the boys in Boone and I plan on sprinkling the moneyline as well.
The Play: Dukes +8
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Check out our Week 3 Fantasy Football Rankings!