2022 College Football Week 5 Picks

by Aaron Ogdahl
2022 College Football Picks

Last week's preview went 3-1 bringing the last two weeks' record to 9-1-1. On the season, the NCAA football betting record improves to 103-69-5

Follow me on Twitter @OgdahlAnalytics or through the action network (Ogdahl_Analytics) to see when I bet each game to maximize your closing line value. Additionally, visit my website for betting previews in a variety of sports, including FCS Football!

We've now reached Week 5 and this is usually the last week where I include any statistics from last year into this year's model projections. The data for teams is starting to amount to statistically relevant levels and more importantly, we are starting to decipher who are the pretenders and who are the contenders.

Some of the usual suspects are well on their way to a 10+ win regular season: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St., etc. And well, this is nice and all, but some early season surprise stories may be stealing the show in Syracuse, Kansas, and Minnesota to name a few (I will say, I did have Minnesota on my preseason preview to win the Big 10 West).

College football is a game I've always loved and I've got more winners for you in Week 5. Let's see what's in store for this fun slate scheduled for Saturday.

2022 College Football Week 5 Picks

Cincinnati Bearcats  @ Tulsa Golden Hurricanes

Cincinnati is a team that I've actually been betting on in recent weeks. They were even my favorite pick of the week in Week 3 and I once again returned to the Bearcat well last week in hopes of them exposing fraudulent Indiana. They did and now they need to make a trip to Tulsa, Oklahoma to take on the Golden Hurricanes.

Before you make your decision in finding an edge in this game, it needs to be addressed that we don't know if starting QB Davis Brin will play Saturday at the time of writing this. However, there are some clues in the Vegas line that make me hopeful.

The line opened with the Hurricanes as +11.5 favorites and it has since moved to +9.5. If Brin was out, I don't think we would have seen the line move in favor of the Hurricanes. The opening number was off, regardless of if Brin plays or not in my opinion because their backup is quite formidable. Tulsa may have to go with freshman QB Braylon Braxton, but he handled himself incredibly well in the second half in the intimidating Grove of Ole Miss. The Golden Hurricanes came back from a 35-17 halftime deficit to lose 35-27.

Had it not been for Brin's injury (which occurred when Tulsa was up 14-7), we may be talking about a 3-1 Golden Hurricanes team and not a 2-2 team.  This makes me even more of a fan of this angle though. Generally, in the sports betting world, it can be profitable to buy on bad news and sell on good news.

With Brin in the game, I have the Bearcats as a six-point favorite. For me, this was more than enough to jump immediately on the Golden Hurricanes as a big dog at home. The Bearcats are not quite the team from last year, however, I still think QB Ben Bryant and HC Luke Fickell will win this game, just not by 11.5 in a tough Tulsa environment

The Play: Tulsa +11.5

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