2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-11-22

by Jason Beckner
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-11-22.

We are on day 71 of the MLB lockout and not much progress has been made. However, there was some positive news coming out of negotiations. The two sides have agreed to a universal designated hitter in both the American League and National League. This is great news for some big-name hitters that can now get regular at-bats. Such names include Mike Moustakas, Jesse Winker, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, and many others.

There is still a lot of issues that are causing the lockout to continue into the middle of February. We are now only a few days away from the original date for pitchers and catchers to report.

Rob Manfred continues to say that the regular season is not in jeopardy of starting late. I remain optimistic and want to believe the commissioner. However, until an agreement is reached, with every passing day I become less and less optimistic.

Until then let us get into some Fantasy Baseball talk with this week's Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Be sure to check out Bailey's First-Year Player Draft (FYPD) rankings.

2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-11-22

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Buy

Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

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There was a breakout outfielder for St. Louis in 2021 and I'm not talking about Tyler O'Neil. One of the Cardinal's top prospects the past few years is starting to show signs of a top-tier fantasy outfielder. The former first-round pick had a breakout season in 2021. He finished third in Rookie of the Year voting, behind only Jonathan India and Trevor Rogers.

During his first full season in 2021, he accumulated 619 plate appearances and finished with a slash line of .266/.343/.437. In addition, he also hit 18 home runs, scored 79 runs, and drove in 65 runs. While the stolen bases weren't there in 2021 he does have 50-grade speed and stole 20 plus bags just two seasons ago in the minors.

He has shown some signs of some plate discipline as well. His 24% chase rate was below league average and he also cut his strikeout rate down from 2020 to a respectable 24% in 2021.

If we look into his advanced stats there was something that jumped off the page and that was his sweet spot rate. The sweet spot is defined as a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. Carlson had a 41% sweet spot rate in 2021 which was above league average. A greater sweet spot rate theoretically will lead to more home runs.  Just take a look at his 50BBE rolling average of sweet spot rate. It has big gaps above league average.

He also increased his launch angle from eight in 2020 to 15 in 2021. His 15-degree launch angle was above league average. Furthermore, Carlson did hit 31 doubles last year and some of those doubles could eventually become home runs. He would need to increase his hard-hit rate, but I could see Carlson hitting 25-35 home runs in a season.

Carlson is still only 23 years old, so he has room to develop and add more muscle to his form. I would only expect the power numbers to increase as he matures. His price tag started to increase after a solid rookie debut, but I would try to buy now. I could see Carlson being a top 50 outfielder in the near future.

Sell

David Fletcher, 2B, Los Angeles Angels

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Fletcher was a staple for many fantasy teams after a very solid 2019 season. However, things have gone downhill since then. Let's take a look at why you should be selling Fletcher while he still has value.

In 2019 Fletcher slashed .290/.350/.384 and scored 83 runs. The 83 runs scored was the 64th most among all qualified hitters and ranked as the ninth most among all second baseman.

Since then he has only scored 105 runs across two seasons and 206 games, which ranks as the 65th most in that time.

One thing he does well is his elite approach at the plate. He hardly ever strikes out, displayed by his career 9% strikeout rate. His 2021 strikeout rate ranks in the 100th percentile of the league. In fact, he has never had a strikeout rate worse than 11%.

However, while he doesn't strike out, he also does not walk. He only had a 4% walk rate in 2021 which was in the bottom four percent of the league. He takes a huge dip in value in leagues that use OBP. Fletcher had an OBP below .300 and ranked as the 10th worst amongst all qualified hitters.

The power numbers are also a concern, power is just not a part of his game. He only has 12 career home runs in 440 games, and that includes the two last year. His career-high in home runs is only six. In 2021 he only had 32 extra-base hits. His .324 slugging percent ranked as the third-worst in 2021 behind only Kevin Newman and Elvis Andrus.

Obviously, the ratios, runs scored, and the stolen bases do have value. However, I would be looking to sell Fletcher as he does not bring any value in the other facets of fantasy stats.

Check out last week's Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.


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3 comments

John Stapleton February 11, 2022 - 11:33 am

I understand the need to make money through advertisement, it’s just a shame that many of the fantasy blogs are turning to political advertising to support themselves. Kind of takes the fun out it. There just isn’t any escape from the BS in this world.

Reply
Joe Bond February 12, 2022 - 1:58 am

John. I’m right there with you on the political ads. Unfortunately we don’t get to choose the ads on the player you saw the political ad on. I will try to reach out to the vendor who provides those ads and ask that we no longer get political ads.

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2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-11-22 – Fantasy Six Pack – Slats on Sports (and other things) February 11, 2022 - 3:36 pm

[…] 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 2-11-22  Fantasy Six Pack […]

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