2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-29-22

by Jason Beckner
2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-29-22

“With the first pick in the 2022 NFL Draft …” that’s right, we are in the middle of the NFL draft. One of my personal favorite NFL events of the year is the draft. I’m not exactly sure what the draw is with the NFL draft. There is just something about seeing what the future of the NFL may look like and seeing where certain players fall.

One reason I like the draft is to see what my favorite team (Bears) is going to do. Unfortunately this year the Bears do not have a first-round pick. But that still didn’t stop me from watching every pick from the first round last night. I also had the Fantasy Six Pack Draft Show on my second screen so I could get insights and breakdowns of all the picks.

Another reason I watch and let’s be honest is to watch where the skill players get drafted. So I can start prepping for all my Dynasty Football rookie drafts. I have several drafts that are set to take place just a couple of days after the NFL is completed.

I also really like the trading aspect of the NFL draft. The MLB could benefit from implementing draft pick trades. It not only makes the MLB draft a little more intriguing but I think it would also make the trade deadline more interesting.

Last night’s round one was super interesting and I can’t wait for tonight when I finally get to see what the Chicago Bears do with their three picks tonight in rounds two and three. For now, let’s get into this week’s Buy or Sell.

Be sure to check out Nick’s Dynasty Player of the Week.

2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-29-22

Looking for a Fantasy advantage? Get the ultimate in-season edge with customized Fantasy Baseball advice for your team using My Playbook from FantasyPros.

Buy

Caleb Kilian, RHP, Chicago Cubs

The Cubs fourth-ranked prospect came over from the Giants in the Kris Bryant trade deadline deal last season. At the time of the deal, many people were not familiar with Kilian. Which left many wondering if the return for the former MVP was enough. However Kilian is proving that he was more than just a throw piece in the deal.

Kilian was drafted by the Giants in the 8th round after a solid stint for Texas Tech in which he finished with a 23-6 record across three seasons.  Kilian started his minor league career where he left his college career, dominating the competition. Including not giving up an earned run in his first seven games in 2019. Kilian did not let the fact that there was no minor league season in 2020 affect him, as he continued to pitch well in 2021. He finished the season with a 2.42 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 112 K in 100IP.

He finished off his 2021 with a cherry on top when he started the 2021 Arizona Fall League Championship game and proceeded to pitch six perfect innings and threw 48 of his 68 pitches for strikes. Kilian ultimately was named the player of the game.

So far this season Kilian is still rolling along. The 24-year-old has appeared in three games at Triple-A and has a 13:4 K:BB ratio. He has also only allowed two earned runs but has not surrendered any long balls. While it is still a small sample he currently holds a 65% ground ball rate which ranks as the sixth-best in Triple-A East.

Kilian features a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup.  He throws both a four-seamer and two-seam fastball and throws both for strikes and they sit in the mid-90s while the two-seamer has late sinking action. His slider is a better breaking option and his changeup is still a work in progress that sits in the low 80s.

Kilian has the opportunity to have another solid season and if that is the case, then I can almost count on a trip to the friendly confines sometime this summer. He has the experience and success to make an immediate impact on the Cubs. He still projects as more of an SP2 at his peak and has a floor of an SP3. I would be looking to buy Kilian now while the price tag is relatively low.

Sell

Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves

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One of the Brave’s top pitching prospects the past several seasons is off an unfamiliar start. He currently leads the Braves pitching staff in ERA and wins. Wright was the fifth overall pick in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft. Being a top-five pick brings instant hype around a player. Especially for a player that was as dominant as Wright was in his time at Vanderbilt.

So far this season Wright has appeared in three games for a total of 17IP. He currently has a 1.06 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 26 K. All while holding hitters to a messily .177 batting average. Kyle is doing something “Wright”, sorry for the bad pun. What he is doing is working. He is limiting hard contact. His hard-hit rate of 34% is below league average.

He is also attacking hitters and making them look foolish. He currently has a 49% strikeout rate which ranks in the 95th percentile. Both his whiff rate and chase rate are in the top 80th percentile. A lot of his success can be traced back to his increased usage of his changeup and the huge increase (19%) of his curveball from 2021.

All of this statistical data look great, but we have to remember this is from a very small sample size of three starts. We are talking about a pitcher that has never had an ERA sub 3.00 since his 2017 season. That also includes never having an ERA sub 4.50 at the major league level.

Most recently his 2021 season was one to forget. He made two spot starts for the Braves and never made it past the fifth inning of either start. Even when we look at his minor league career as a whole, he had mixed results. He holds a minor league career ERA of 3.47 and a 1.21 WHIP. He also was a victim of long ball as he gave up 30 HR including a 13 during his time at Triple-A in 2019.

Wright has struggled with his loose command over his professional career, so I would think the walk rate will eventually increase over time. The chase rate should eventually digress and move towards the mean. There are other statistical outliers when we look at Wright’s hot start. All of which is due for a significant regression to the mean.


Therefore we should be looking to capitalize on Wright’s hot start and sell while the iron is hot. You should be able to get a significant return for Wright and I would be selling even in deeper dynasty leagues.


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