2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-8-22

by Jason Beckner
2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-8-22!

It is finally here! One of the best days of the calendar year. It is Christmas in April. After several months of lockout and a month of spring training. Baseball's opening day is here. I'm sure like me, most of you woke up yesterday at 6 A.M. with tons of enthusiasm. Every MLB team and every Fantasy team is glowing with optimism as the new season starts. I spent the first couple hours of yesterday morning double-and-triple-checking my Fantasy lineups.

Unfortunately, there were a couple of rainouts yesterday, including the Red Sox and Yankees game. Therefore there were not as many games as originally scheduled for opening day. However, there were still a lot of good games yesterday. We also got to see Shohei Ohtani make his 2022 debut. Which also saw the new "Ohtani" rule be put in place.

Not only was it baseball opening day yesterday, but it was also the first day of the 2022 Masters Tournament. The Masters is the first major tournament and a universal sign that not only spring is here but so is the PGA season. There were no lack of storylines at the Masters either, including Tiger Woods back in action at his first major since his horrific car crash last February.

Needless to say, there's plenty of good sports television this weekend. So hopefully, you have your spot on the couch reserved, your local pizza delivery spot on speed-dial and your fridge is fully stocked. Enjoy this great sports weekend.

2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-8-22

Check out Dave's Dynasty Baseball Rankings

Buy

Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers

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If you haven't heard by now Josh Jung has been ruled out for the majority of the 2022 season with a shoulder injury that required surgery. In other words, the time to buy Jung is now. Josh Jung is the Ranger's number two prospect and was the eighth overall pick in the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft.

Since being drafted out of Texas Tech, Jung has quickly moved through the Rangers system. Including an outstanding 2021 in which he hit 19 HR, 61 RBI, 54 R, and slashed 326/398/592 in 342 plate appearances across Double and Triple-A.

Jung was making a strong case to make the Rangers opening day roster for 2022, which of course was before he suffered the shoulder injury. With the 2022 season being in question, you might be able to get a discount on the 29th overall prospect.

So why should you buy an injured 24-year-old prospect? Well, Jung has proven that he can perform. Even dating back to his time at Texas Tech when he had more walks than strikeouts. Even in the minors, he has never had a strikeout rate higher than 23%. Jung has never had a wRC+ below league average.

The power was never a huge part of his game, but in 2021 Jung increased his pull tendencies. Which saw his power increase, as he hit 19 HR, the most at any level in his career. He should continue to see his in-game power continue to develop as he matures.

Jung is someone that has an advanced eye at the dish and has the above-average, bat-to-ball skills, displayed by his career 348 batting average at Texas Tech and his 322 batting average in the minors. While the power is not top-notch he should have no problem providing 25+ HR a season while also driving in 75+ runs a season.

Even with a lost 2022 season, the price tag could remain high. However, Jung is worth the price tag and you should be looking to buy in all your Dynasty leagues.

Sell

Nick Senzel, OF, Cincinnati Reds

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From one top prospect to another. This time we are jumping over to the National League as we discuss the Red's former top prospect, Nick Senzel. Like Josh Jung, Nick was also a former top-ten pick in the MLB Amateur Draft. Senzel was drafted second overall in the 2016 draft as a top college bat.

Senzel moved quickly through the minors, as he established himself and showed that he was able to handle pitching in the upper minors. He went on to debut for the Reds in 2019 and had mixed results. He finished the season with 12 HR, 14 SB, and 55 runs scored.

However, since his rookie season, Senzel has had his fair share of struggles and has me concerned about his future outlook. First off is his batted ball profile. His barrel rate and sweet spot rate are less than desirable. When you look at his hard-hit rate of 37%, it has seen a steady decrease over the past two seasons. Below is a rolling chart to help display this.

Click to Enlarge

Some plate discipline metrics can also cause concern. First off is his chase rate. His chase rate increased almost 6% in 2021 and is back to his 2019 numbers of 28% which ranks in the bottom 50 of all qualified hitters.

Senzel has also never had a wRC+ above league average. His best was in his rookie season when he compiled an 87 wRC+. Combine that with his subpar wOBA, and his career 704 OPS there are many reasons to be pessimistic about Senzel. Even when fully healthy.

After an injury shorted 2021, Senzel had a strong spring, so the value on Senzel has rebounded and you should be able to sell off for a decent return.


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