Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-10-22 update.
Guess who is back!
I am bringing another special treat along with me this week too. Last time I brought you two hitters. This week, I give some attention to the pitchers.
Just so there is no confusion pic.twitter.com/IRmHVydZCj
— Dave Eddy (@CorporalEddy) June 9, 2022
Listen, while that might be true it doesn't mean I can't still show some love.
I have a sneaky pitcher that I think you would do well to try and acquire. Of course, there are many pitchers I would be happy to part ways with. I kept it close to home to suggest one this week.
So, let's get into this week's Buy or Sell.
2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-10-22
Make sure you have my Dynasty Baseball Rankings bookmarked!
Alex Cobb, SP, San Francisco Giants
I know, I know this isn't a very sexy name. I know, I know I am suggesting a guy that has pitched to a terrible 5.73 ERA and horrible 1.49WHIP. But hear me out on this one.
As you probably know by now, I am not the type of analyst that relies on traditional stats. In fact, they are not even stats I typically pay a lot of attention to. I would argue to say that approach has served me well over the years. My Alex Cobb suggestion is very similar to his teammate which I suggested as a buy last week, Joc Pederson.
Let's take a look at why I am looking to buy Alex Cobb:
When I see this statcast data, I see a pitcher I am drooling to get my hands on. I am not even sure where I want to start because the top 3 rows are absolutely elite. They definitely do not look like a guy with the ERA and WHIP that Alex Cobb holds through 37.2 innings pitched this year.
If those red circles don't do it for you then let me leave you with this beautiful little nugget. Alex Cobb has an xERA of just 2.05 which has a variance of 3.69 from his actual ERA. That is hands down the biggest difference between xERA and ERA in the league. To top it all off, with pitchers that have at least 100 BIP (ball in play), Cobb has the lowest xERA in the entire league. Yes, you read that correctly!
If that doesn't tickle your fancy then I am not sure what more you could ask for.
For more on Cobb, check out Yeon's breakdown!
Gregory Soto, RP, Detroit Tigers
This one hurts a little bit as a life-long Tigers fan. However, business is business folks. So long as you aren't desperate for saves, Gregory Soto is a guy I would be actively seeking to part ways with.
On the surface, most people are going to see his traditional stats and think that Soto is pitching really well this year. He has a 1.71 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 18 K's in 21.0 IP and 12 SV on a Tigers team with not many more wins than that. Hell, if the metrics weren't so poor this could very well be a buy-low scenario, assuming the Tigers will start to play better and you could end up getting even more saves from Soto. Sadly, I do not think this is the case.
First of all, the Tigers have the second-best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. One could easily argue that they have had the best bullpen in all of Baseball this year. This is weird for a team near the bottom of the Leagues standings but that is for another article.
Because their bullpen has been so good, this means to me that there are plenty of options to take his spot, if or when he falters. Looking at these metrics below I don't think him regressing heavily is far-fetched.
To be fair the xBA is very encouraging. It is one of the most important metrics that I focus on. But, pretty much everything else is a major cause for concern. For me, the biggest red flag here is the average exit velocity. I have long said that this is the most important metric to me. It is always the very first thing I take a look at.
Soto pretty much couldn't be fairing any worse in this metric. He has been extremely lucky to be getting hit so hard while maintaining such a good xBA. This is a recipe for disaster and a clear sign of significant regression coming his way.
Outside of catchers, I would say that closers are the least valuable asset on a Dynasty roster. They are so volatile from year to year that I will almost always advocate for moving them anytime you can get good value.
I realize that a lot of leagues are still traditional saves leagues and in these cases Soto would indeed hold more value. Especially if you are in a saves/holds league then you will want to make Soto available immediately.
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