Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-17-22 update.
I think this is going to be the last week that I have the pleasure of presenting this article to you. I am leaving you with a serious hot take at the end. Jason will be back next week.
I do hope that you have enjoyed hearing things from a different perspective. Maybe it is a new line of thinking that you can use going forward. Or, maybe you just think I am an idiot?
Either way I have a real doozy lined up for you this week! Let's get into this week's Buy or Sell.
2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-17-22
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Austin Meadows, OF, Detroit Tigers
Last week I suggested selling the closer on the team with the 2nd best bullpen in all of Baseball. Now I am advocating for buying a player with 0 home runs and 0 stolen bases. He is also on one of the worst offenses in MLB history. Granted that closer was just Gregory Soto. And, of course, keeping in mind that I am a Detroit Tigers fan.
Meadows has some variances in the most important expected stats. They absolutely scream to the roof tops that he is about to start looking more like his old self. Let me drop these statistical nuggets and you can decide what you want to do with the information:
He currently has a batting average of .248 with an xBA (expected batting average) of .317 for the 4th highest variance in the league of .069 (NICE!!!)
— Dave Eddy (@CorporalEddy) June 16, 2022
Meadows currently has a slugging percent of .328 with an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .503 for the third-highest variance in the league of .175.
He currently has a wOBA (weighted on-base average) of .309 with an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .394 for the 4th highest variance in the league of .085.
He has disappointed in the power and speed departments this year. Keep in mind he did miss 19 games with vertigo. Not your typical injury. And, not one that should present any long-term concerns like a leg or shoulder type injury.
I would highly suggest reaching out to whoever owns Austin Meadows in your league. See if you can buy him while his cost might come much lower than it should. You can thank me later.
Logan Gilbert, SP, Seattle Mariners
OK, I am going to need you to sit down and take a deep breath. This is a highly regarded pitching prospect that is having an All-Star caliber season at just 25 years of age. This is the kind of player most owners are absolutely drooling over. Let me drop some knowledge on you that will allow you to take advantage of those owners before it is too late.
Stop me if you have heard this before but let me show you some expected stats that will illustrate why I am strongly advocating selling Logan Gilbert:
- He currently has a batting average against of .209 with an xBA of .267 which is the highest variance in the league of pitchers with 200 or more BIP. (balls in play)
- Gilbert currently has a slugging percentage against of .309 with an xSLG of .436 which is the 4th highest variance in the league of pitchers with 200 or more BIP.
- He currently has a wOBA against of .262 and an xwOBA of .329 which is the 2nd highest variance in the league of pitchers with 200 or more BIP.
- He currently has an ERA of 2.22 and an xERA (expected ERA) of 3.99 which is the highest variance in the league of pitchers with 200 or more BIP.
Sadly, those expected stats point very strongly towards a regression coming Gilbert's way. If you still aren't convinced let me give you a little bit more.
Especially if you have read my last few articles, then you are familiar with seeing the information above from Baseball Savant. If you remember, average exit velocity is one of the first things I look at when digging into the metrics of a player. In this case, it shows Gilbert in the bottom 8th percentile in this important metric.
To take them even a step further, his 91.3 MPH average exit velocity (league average is 88.4 MPH) is the worst in the league amongst qualified pitchers.
You can pair this with his 48.3% hard-hit rate against (league average is 35.6%). Which surprise surprise, is the worst in the league amongst qualified pitchers. I know Jason will appreciate this last one because this is an advanced stat that I know he loves. Gilbert has a 25.7 CSW% (called strikes + whiff rate) which is the 50th best in the league out of the 62 qualified pitchers.
None of this is to say that Logan Gilbert can't and won't be a decent, or even better, pitcher at the Big League level. This is however to very clearly say that his value is likely at the highest point in his career. In nearly each of these metrics he is below league average, often well below.
You could do well by selling him at this point. It will create the maximum return for your team to set yourself up for as much sustained success as possible. You will have no shortage of interested owners who do not possess all of the knowledge that you now do.
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