Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-3-22 update.
You are in for a treat. For at least this week and possibly the next few I, Dave Eddy, am taking the reigns on this article.
The reason you keep coming back each week is that Jason does such a great job. There are some big shoes to fill but I am up for the challenge. I look forward to giving you this article from a different point of view.
I am not new around here so I know that you did not come here this week expecting me. And I sure as heck know you didn't come here to listen to me ramble. So... let's get into this week's Buy or Sell.
2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-3-22
Make sure you have my Dynasty Baseball Rankings bookmarked!
Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants
Someone ask Joe Girardi why he pitched to Joc Pederson in this spot 🤷🏽♂️ pic.twitter.com/c4mwBa3E7x
— IB THE GAMBLER 🔌 (@incarceratedbob) June 1, 2022
It is kind of ironic that after all the attention Joc Pederson got for his Fantasy Football spat with Tommy Pham that he is featured in this article. For as hilarious and entertaining as that was, it is not the reason we are here.
In fact, the reason that we are here is because of the crazy discrepancy between his statcast data and his actual numbers. As you can see from the chart below it could easily be looked at and argued that Joc Pederson is one of the best hitters in baseball so far in 2022.
Then you take a look at his actual stats, and if you are like me, you go WTF ?!?!?!?!?!
This is a curious case of the statcast data and actual results not lining up. If we compare him to the league leaders in these categories we get this:
However, it is precisely the reason why I am trying to acquire Joc Pederson in all formats. Of course, we would much prefer if the actual numbers mirrored the statcast data more closely. This does present us with an opportunity to trust the numbers and buy him for a lower cost than I think he is actually worth.
Joc Pederson has always been a bit of a streaky hitter. He has also typically been considered a player that is known for having a really good bat. It can't possibly hurt to inquire with the Manager that rosters Pederson and see what it could cost to acquire him. With the underlying data I think it is very possible that you could still get him before we see the best of what he will do.
Paul Blackburn, SP, Oakland Athletics
Paul Blackburn reshaped his curve to pair better with his sinker. It's led to more effectiveness so far this year, but is it sustainable? pic.twitter.com/i8SRmTRBRn
— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) April 20, 2022
If you are an owner that picked Paul Blackburn up off waivers then let me start off by congratulating you. I know you sure as heck didn't draft him. He is a player that we need to look to sell high because he doesn't have the makings of someone I think has magically figured things out. I would advise you to move him now, while you can still get good value.
I know the common thought process is to hold on to such a gem, that came so cheaply because it makes us feel like a genius. The fact of the matter is the likelihood of him continuing anything around this pace is incredibly unlikely. Let me run you through a short breakdown of why I would jump ship.
His 2.15 ERA is currently 9th best in the league through his 54.1 IP this year. While that is obviously amazing, I do not think it will last. His xERA (expected ERA) if 3.33. While that number is still pretty decent it is a whopping 1.18 difference between his actual current ERA. Of guys with at least 150 BIP (balls in play) that is the 9th highest variance in the league. It is pretty safe to say we are going to see a fairly significant regression here.
Next, let's take a look at another important variance. His current batting average against is .208 which is good for 9th best among pitchers with 150 BIP. His xBA (expected batting average against) is .261. That is another huge variance, in this case 0.53. That variance is the 3rd highest in the league amongst pitchers with 150 BIP. Another sign of a fairly significant regression on the way.
I realize those two points could be viewed as cherry-picking. I will counter that by saying when looking at the stability of a pitcher and trying to forecast their performance those are two of the biggest things I look for. It is not very often you find such drastic differences.
I would completely understand if you feel that his change in pitch selection and usage has altered the player he is to the point of making him a significantly better pitcher. I would be remiss if I didn't warn you that seeing such great variances in stats versus expected stats is almost always something that comes backwards. Clearly, it is no guarantee but the smart money is on selling Blackburn now while his value is still high.
Check out more Fantasy Baseball content!