Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-22-22.
Well, here we are on July 22nd and we are just now starting up the second half of the baseball season. If you haven’t noticed by now, the All-Star break was pushed back a week. Due to the start of the season being delayed by a week from the lockout.
Before we start talking about the second half of the season, let’s look back at some of the highlights from the All-Star break.
First off was the Future Game on Saturday night. The Futures Game is an all-star game for all the top prospects. The game is in the same format as the MLB all-star game. The best prospects in both leagues match up.
Then on Sunday was the MLB Amateur Draft. The big news this year was for the first time in the history of the draft the first two rounds were aired on ESPN.
Live 2022 #MLBDraft coverage is underway!
— MLB Draft (@MLBDraft) July 17, 2022
On Monday was my favorite event as we got to see the league’s big boppers face off against each other in the Home Run Derby. This year we had no lack of storylines as Pete Alonso was going for the three-peat. We also saw Albert Pujols continue his farewell tour and participate in the Derby. Eventually, Juan Soto would go on to defeat the newcomer Julio Rodriguez in the finals to win his first Home Run Derby.
Tuesday was the grand finale as the MLB All-Star game took place. In the end, it was the American league continuing their dominance against the National League as they won the game 3-2.
Now that the All-Star break is over it's time to start looking forward to the second half of the season and trying to win those Fantasy Baseball championships. Let’s get into this week's Buy or Sell.
Be sure to check out Dave's Dynasty Rankings.
2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-22-22
Dustin Harris, 1B/3B Texas Rangers
On the buying side of this week's article, I want to discuss the Rangers top hitting prospect. Dustin Harris is a former 11th-round pick that is starting to showcase a speed and power profile that you look for in fantasy prospects.
Dustin broke out in a big way in 2021 when he achieved his first career 20-20 season. He hit 20 HR and stole 25 bags across two levels. He also hit for a high average as he slashed 327/401/542. So far in 2022, he is on pace to contribute another 20-20 season as he already has 14 HR and 17 SB in 72 games.
MLB Pipeline has both his speed, and power grades rated above average. Which fits in line with his production early on in his career.
Our guys showed out in LA yesterday for the Futures Game!
— Frisco RoughRiders (@RidersBaseball) July 17, 2022
Harris also boasts a good eye at the dish, displayed by his strikeout rates. Harris has never had a strike-out rate greater than 20% and has never had a walk rate lower than 10%.
Dustin has also never had a wRC+ lower than 100 and he even had a wRC+ of almost 200 or two times the league average when he put up a wRC+ of 181 in 37 games to finish the 2021 season.
After a strong 2022 Futures game, Dustin's dynasty value took another positive turn. However, I would be looking to buy even despite the recent value gains.
Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
If I told you before the season started that the National League leader in pitcher wins was Tony Gonsolin, you would have thought I was taking crazy pills. But here we are on July 22nd, and not only does Tony have double-digit wins, he also leads the National League in pitcher wins.
One of the biggest reasons that have helped Tony has been the fact that he pitches for the 60-win, NL West leading Los Angeles Dodgers. They have given him one of the best-run support advantages in the league. The Dodgers are currently at a +169 run differential which is second to only the league-leading New York Yankees.
It is not just the wins that Gonsolin has been providing fantasy value in this season. He also has an ERA a tick above 2. This ranks as the fourth best in all of baseball and second best in the National League.
You can see there are many things to like about Gonsolin so far this year. However, when we look deeper there is some statistical data that has me concerned. First of all, he is currently at a career-high in innings pitched with 93 innings. His 93 innings are almost double the amount of his previous career-high. Remember: we are only a bit over halfway through the season.
Secondly, there are a couple of advanced stats that give me concerns. His expected stats are the biggest concern. His xERA is almost a whole run higher as it sits at 2.96 compared to his 2.02 ERA.
Next are his FIP and xFIP, which are both good indicators of how well a pitcher is performing. Both his FIP (3.39) and xFIP (3.71) are almost two whole runs worse than his ERA.
Gonsolin's +1.37 variance between ERA and FIP is the second largest variance among all qualified pitchers and behind only Marco Gonzales' +1.50.
His career-best BABIP of 197 inflates his expected stats.. Not only is 197 BABIP a career-best, but it also ranks as the best in the leagues among all qualified pitchers.
Therefore I would be looking to cash in on Tony's hot start to his 28-year-old season. You should be looking to sell him while the iron is hot and his value is the highest it has ever been.
Get direct access to our award-winning analysts via Discord, cheat sheets and more by signing up for a F6P Membership!