2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-8-22

by Dave Eddy
2023 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-8-22 update here at F6P!

That's right; guess who's back again this week? If you follow along with these each week then you will know how I do this.

But, if you are just a part-time or first-time viewer, grab a seat, sit back and enjoy.

However, enough nonsense, let's get into this week's Buy or Sell!

2022 Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-8-22

Make sure you have my Dynasty Baseball Rankings bookmarked!

Buy

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

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As with my previous cameos, I have a player here that is seriously underperforming his expected stats. Corey Seager is a prime example of a guy I would be looking to try and buy low. Granted this is a pretty big name so depending on who owns him, you may not be able to get a discount.

Let's take a look at why I am advocating for Seager:

  • First, he currently has a batting average of .233 with an xBA (expected batting average) of .296 which is the second-highest variance in the league of hitters with 200 or more BIP. (balls in play)
  • Second, Seager currently has a slugging percentage of .421 with an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .572 which is the highest variance in the league of hitters with 200 or more BIP.
  • Lastly, he currently has a wOBA of .313 and an xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) of .391 which is the highest variance in the league of hitters with 200 or more BIP.

Seager is seeing his counting stats (runs, home runs, RBI, etc) right about in line with his career averages. However, he is seeing his ratios (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, etc) well below his career averages. This gives me extreme confidence that Seager will get back on track. I think his second half will be above average and he gets his numbers up to where we expect them.

If you are in need of a SS, MI or can afford an upgrade it would be worth checking in on Seager. You might well find that he could be had. Even if he isn't available what is the harm? Heck, the inquiry might even spur on other trade talks.

Either way, give it a shot.

Sell

Zach Plesac, SP, Cleveland Indians

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This hurts me a little bit. Normally I am an analyst who advocates for trusting certain positions on certain teams to exceed expectations. The Guardians and their pitchers are one of those combinations.

So to have to sit here and type out why you need to be selling Plesac is a bit unusual.

Stop me if you have heard this before. Let me show you some expected stats that will illustrate why I am strongly advocating selling Zach Plesac:

  • First, he currently has a batting average against of .250 with an xBA of .304 which is the 6th highest variance in the league of pitchers with 150 or more BIP. (balls in play)
  • Second, Plesac currently has a slugging percentage against of .398 with an xSLG of .556 which is the highest variance in the league of pitchers with 150 or more BIP.
  • Third, he currently has a wOBA against of .309 and an xwOBA of .384 which is the highest variance in the league of pitchers with 150 or more BIP.
  • Lastly, he currently has an ERA of 3.80 and an xERA (expected ERA) of 5.75 which is the highest variance in the league of pitchers with 150 or more BIP.

Let me brighten up the mood really quick with an epic video of his Uncle, Dan Plesac, that will make you laugh.

With that out of the way, let's get back to business.

Sadly, the expected stats I covered before point very strongly towards a regression coming Plesac's way. You may well be able to find an owner that sees his 3.90 ERA this year and career 3.80 ERA that wants to add the young 27-year-old. He has never been a big strike out guy. However, he has historically kept guys off the basepaths with a 1.23 WHIP this year and a career 1.16 WHIP.

In conclusion, I could make a case for holding on to Plesac. But, especially in redraft, you will get more bang for your buck by selling him for a better piece. If you hold on to him you are basically saying that you don't trust the expected stats and that he is a player that will outperform them. Granted, it is possible but that is not something I want to count on.


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