2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football: 5 Overvalued Players

by Connor Hierlihy
2022 Dynasty Football: 5 Overrated Players

Hey y'all! I got a lot of love on my first article last week. I really appreciate everybody who read it and provided their feedback! We went over 5 players currently being underrated in 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football last week. In this post, I thought we would go to the other end of the spectrum and look at 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football: 5 Overvalued Players

I said this in my article last week, but I'll say it again since these two articles are related.

Dynasty is a whole different beast than redraft. There is so much information to consider when playing Dynasty, whether it's age, contract situation, team changes and much more. That's why it can be so hard to rank players.

Some people value youth and future prospects with 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football, while others just want players who they think will be great this season. Regardless of your personal 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football strategy, I believe these five players can be useful on anyone's roster.

If you want more NFL content or updates follow me at @chillyNFL on Twitter! Also, make sure you check out our Dynasty Rankings before your drafts this season. Let's get started.

2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football: 5 Overvalued Players

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A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

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We’re starting off hot. A.J. Brown is a supremely talented receiver. He can beat you deep, he can beat you short and he can make some incredible contested catches. My problem with Brown in Dynasty Fantasy Football has nothing to do with his talent, and everything to do with his situation.

To start, we should acknowledge that Brown did not have the ideal situation on his former team: The Tennessee Titans. They were and are a largely run-heavy team. In fact, they actually finished second-to-last in the league in passing play percentage. But guess who was last… the Philadelphia Eagles, Brown's new team.

Now, given that they acquired Brown, it’s likely that they plan on going more pass-heavy this season. Besides, Brown has always been successful on low volume so why can't he do it again? That is because volume is not the only thing holding Brown back.

I don’t think it will be controversial to say that Ryan Tannehill is a better passer than Hurts. Hurts had a 61% completion percentage last year compared to Tannehill's 67%. Hurts also averaged fewer passing yards per game and threw fewer touchdowns.

These numbers could go up with Brown, but I think it’s clear that Hurts is a downgrade for him. This means that his already low volume will be less efficient, which is never good for a receiver.

More Competition

Brown also has more competition for targets than he had before. DeVonta Smith is a promising second-year player who should command a good target share. And we can't forget about Dallas Goedert, who should take a chunk too.

Brown has had great camp reports, and beat writers say that he is being peppered with targets. However, DeVonta Smith has missed most of camp with an injury, so it is still to be seen what the target allocation will be.

Brown will be the clear WR1 don’t get me wrong, but he likely will see a decrease in his 27% target share. He also won’t get to benefit from defenses focusing their attention on Derrick Henry anymore. Henry being there made teams sell out to stop him, leaving Brown open. Miles Sanders is a good RB, but he is not Henry.

A.J. Brown has a very murky future. Many think that the Eagles will move on from Hurts after this year, but that isn’t a sure thing. Even if they do move on, there is no guarantee that the new Quarterback is better. Bad QB play may affect him for a long time. He is still only 25 years old he definitely has plenty of time left, but the price is just too steep.

For the record, this isn’t a post saying I would never draft Brown. He is still a top 10 receiver for dynasty purposes in my opinion. His current ECR of WR5 makes him overvalued.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

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Terry McLaurin's NFL career has been impressive so far, yet in some ways disappointing. For a third-round WR, he has had an amazing career, netting two 1000-yard seasons in his first three years. Despite these numbers, he has never finished higher than the WR20 in any season. It can be argued that this is mostly not his fault, as his situation has never been ideal. While I do think this is true, it hasn't gotten much better this year for Dynasty Fantasy Football.

A big part of his struggle has been QB play. While McLaurin tends to get a lot of targets, a good portion of them are not catchable. For example, only 94 of his 131 targets were deemed catchable last year. On top of that, given the horrible QB play, it becomes much harder to get into the red zone. This leads to low touchdown numbers. He had seven his first year, but only four and five in each of the last two years.

He has done the most with what he can, but there is only so high your ceiling can get with bad QB play. So the question we have to ask is, will the acquisition of Carson Wentz lead to a better outcome for Terry? I don’t think so.

No QB Upgrade?

Carson Wentz is not a good Quarterback. Yes, there was a time when he was, but that time is certainly not now. Is he better than Taylor Heinicke? Maybe, but last year's numbers don’t show it. Wentz averaged fewer Passing Yards per game and had a lower completion percentage. He also had a worse accuracy rating. To be fair, he did throw more touchdowns. To be even fairer, the fact that his numbers are comparable and arguably worse than Taylor Heinicke says a lot about him as a QB.

There are reports that he is struggling in camp, and throwing even less accurately than he did last season which is never a good sign. Maybe something is missing that could bring Wentz back to his old self, but I would not bet on the Washington Commanders to be the one that finds it. You could say Wentz is a slight upgrade maybe, but even if that is the case other things are holding McLaurin back.

More Competition

Another barrier that might limit McLaurin's success is the addition of Jahan Dotson and the return of Curtis Samuel. Dotson was a first-round selection, and if he becomes what the Commanders hope he does then that is not good news for McLaurin. Beat reporters have stated that Dotson has been the star of camp so far, so it would not be at all surprising if he has a significant role.

As for Samuel, it is hard to tell what could happen. He only played in five games for the Commanders last year and put up horrible numbers. This could be due to lingering injury. Regardless, he could have a decent role.

It starts to show that McLaurin could have been propped up by lack of competition when you look at who the second leading receiver for the Commanders was over the last few years. In 2019 it was Chris Thompson, a Running Back. In 2020 it was Logan Thomas, a Tight End. Last year, it was J.D. Mckissic, a Running Back. The highest yardage total of a Wide Receiver other than McLaurin was 477 yards. That was Cam Sims in 2020. My point is, that if Dotson or Samuel poses any threat, it will not be good for McLaurin. Losing targets from an already ineffective QB could be a death sentence.

"Potential"

Terry McLaurin's ADP has been too high for the last two years. This is mostly due to his “potential” and hopes for better QB play. With the lack of a true upgrade at QB and the addition of Dotson, I have no clue how he is ranked at WR17 in Fantasypros Dyntasy ECR. Even without these factors, McLaurin isn’t as young as you may think. McLaurin came into the league relatively late and will be 27 at the start of this season. That makes him two years older than JuJu Smith-Schuster. So age should not play a factor in his ADP.

While McLaurin is a great player, I, unfortunately, don’t see a way he ever lives up to his name value. It’s sad, but it is what it is.

Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants

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Saquon Barkley’s career can be described as a loud bang followed by a slow fizzle. He exploded onto the scene in his rookie year, netting 1300 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards on a ridiculous 121 targets. That’s insane for a Running Back. He followed that up with a solid sophomore season, but since then has battled injuries and bad play. So can he turn it around?

The short answer is, probably. But will it be enough to live up to his RB10 ECR for Dynasty Fantasy Football? It’s very unlikely. In his first two years, he averaged 5.0 and 4.6 Yards, Per Carry. This last year we saw him average just 3.7.

In fact, he was outplayed by his own teammate Devontae Booker who averaged 4.1 yards per carry on a similar number of attempts. To be fair, this is likely a result of coming off a multitude of injuries. But can we really be sure that the building up of injuries hasn’t killed his burst? Not for sure. For someone like Saquon who relies on his crazy athleticism, that notion isn’t promising.

Less Meaningful Work

A big part of Barkley’s appeal in his first two seasons was his receiving work, especially in PPR. Well, a lot of that appeal is gone now. In his first season, he averaged 7.56 targets per game. Last year, he only averaged 4.38 targets a game.

Different QB styles are a big reason for this. That first year the QB was Eli Manning, who mostly checked down when the pocket collapsed. This is in stark contrast to Daniel Jones, who prefers to scramble.

It also doesn’t help that the Giants drafted Wan’Dale Robinson, a slot receiver who specializes in short-yardage situations. Barkley will certainly still get a fair amount of receptions, but not as many as he used to. All in all, the receiving work is not there like it was before

Giants Failures

Saquon Barkley plays for a Giants team that is not expected to be particularly good. This means he is unlikely to get in the Red Zone very often. His rushing touchdown numbers from recent years show this. In his rookie year he had 11, but since then has only mustered eight in 25 games.

His current over/under for TDs is at 7.5, and I would take the under. Daniel Jones himself is a threat to rush the ball even in the cases where the team does get in the red zone, which is another negative for Saquon. He does get a small amount of receiving touchdowns generally which is a plus, but I don't think that's something you can count on.

As far as Dynasty goes, Saquon is only 25 years old still, so he should have a good two to three years before he starts to decline. However, it is likely that his decline starts sooner given his vast injury history and style of play. So Barkley is a RB who is losing targets and on a bad offense with low-scoring opportunities. So what are we betting on? I am out on Saquon Barkley at his ADP.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons

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This one might be controversial. A big part of why I think Drake London is overvalued in 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football is my dislike for him as a prospect. While I will talk about my reasoning for this, I also want to focus on why he is overvalued just based on his status as a rookie.

London is currently at WR19 in ECR. This is ahead of guys like Elijah Moore and Courtland Sutton. This is far too high. A lot of London's value is based on his status as the first WR picked in the 2022 NFL Draft. One problem with this is that first-round WR don’t hit as often as you might think.

Teams took 16 WR in the first round in drafts from 2016-2020. Of those receivers, only five have achieved a top 20 WR season in PPR, with only two having achieved a top 10 season. That means 11 of them have never been in the top 20 in any season. As for WR who were the first picked in their draft, only 1-of-5 has been a top 20 WR. The fact that Drake London is already being valued as a top 20 asset means he is overvalued regardless of his talent.

Let’s talk about London as a prospect. Most people had London being the third or fourth receiver off the board, with many expecting Garret Wilson and Jameson Williams to go before him. I think this was for good reason. London is 6’5" and made quite a name for himself off of contested catches. This skill set is notorious for not always translating to the NFL. To be fair to London, he also isn’t a terrible route runner and has solid body control, but again his main asset is his height. He has a lot of work to do if he wants to beat NFL corners.

Does Situation Matter?

People often bring up London's situation. “There are no other good receivers there so he has to be good!” Looking to the past will tell you that’s not the case. The two players I mentioned earlier who ended up having top 10 seasons are Justin Jefferson and Calvin Ridley. Both of these players had significant competition in Adam Theilen and Julio Jones. If we look at some of the more notorious busts we see the opposite.

Neither Jalen Reagor nor N'keal Harry had much competition at all. My point is, that it’s not about the situation it’s about talent. If you’re good you will demand targets regardless of the situation and if you are bad you won’t, even in a good situation. We don’t know which London will be yet, but I am not going to value the situation very highly.

Of course, I am not saying that Drake London will be a bust. What I am saying however is we are drafting a player who is completely unknown in the top 20 receivers, a receiver who has a large potential to not live up to the hype. Pass on London at his ADP.

Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders

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Antonio Gibson is not a particularly polarizing player this off-season. It seems like most people are down on him this year. As someone who has Gibson on a lot of teams, I wish I could disagree with them, but I just don’t see much of a future for him.

Less Work In All Aspects

Gibson has been a pretty solid fantasy asset over his first two years. In terms of points per game, he has finished as the RB18 and RB17, averaging 14.4 and 14.3 points. Touchdowns are a big part of Gibson's success. In year one he had 11 and in year two he had 10. Unfortunately, it seems likely that those numbers come down.

The addition of Brian Robinson in the third round of the NFL draft could be horrible for Gibson. Robinson has incredible ball security whereas Gibson has a pretty bad fumbling problem (already fumbling in the first preseason game too). He fumbled a total of six times last year.

The coaches aren’t making things sound better either. Ron Rivera was quoted as having said that Robinson is better in short yardage situations. One could assume that includes goal line touches. If he does lose those precious touches, his value would plummet.

Another cap to Gibson's value is J.D. McKissic. McKissic has been limiting Gibson's upside his entire stay in Washington by taking every third down. That won't change. People may look at Gibson's receiving numbers and think that they’re not too bad. However, when we look closer we see that in games without McKissic he averaged 4.4 Targets, whereas in games with Mckissic he averaged just 2.73 targets. Barring an injury, he has very limited receiving upside.

So what do we get when we have a player who won’t get red zone work or many receptions? We get a less efficient version of last year's Miles Sanders. That’s what I believe is in store for Gibson. Yes, he’s only 24. The problem is not age, it’s that he’s just a middle-of-the-road player who is certainly replaceable.

He will not be a good option for 2022 Dynasty Fantasy Football. For all we know the Commanders draft an RB again next year that takes more of his work. I am completely out on Gibson with his ECR of RB18.


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