2022 Dynasty Football Week 10 Stock Watch

by Ryan Kirksey
2022 Dynasty Football Week 18 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Football Week 10 Stock Watch article.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of fantasy. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward. 

We tend to evaluate each week's fantasy performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 9? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of trades? Let’s dive in and find out.

2022 Dynasty Football Week 10 Stock Watch

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Stock Up

Terrace Marshall, Jr., WR, Carolina Panthers

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Second-year wide receiver Terrace Marshall had plenty of fantasy juice coming out of the 2021 NFL draft. He was drafted in the second round by a thought-to-be improving Carolina Panthers team. He was coming off a year at LSU where he posted 731 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in just seven games. And he was a very young prospect, just barely 21 when he was selected.

Then, the 2021 season happened.

Marshall didn't even get on the field for four of the Panthers' 17 games last year, and totaled 17 receptions for 138 yards in the other 13. He did not score, only had 4.6 yards per target, and looked completely lost at times. But fast forward one year, and the very young sophomore is finally starting to put it together.

He has played in more than 83% of the snaps in each of the last three games, including 92%+ the past two weeks. In those two games, he has 15 targets, 140 receiving yards, and his first NFL touchdown, quickly becoming a favorite target of rookie P.J. Walker. I am sure the new Panthers' coaching staff wanted to get someone with Marshall's speed and ability out in the shallow flat so Walker could complete some easy passes to kick off his NFL career.

And that's exactly where Marshall excels. Give Marshall the ball in space and let him use his 86th percentile speed score to make plays with the ball. With Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey gone, that is more than 30% of the targets up for grabs, and Marshall is a perfect candidate to help a quarterback like Walker be successful.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Chicago Bears

Last week, we looked at the sharply improving dynasty stock of Justin Fields, who is now the best fantasy quarterback from the last five weeks of games. But it's clear if you are a Bears pass-catcher (even a new Bears pass-catcher), Fields can easily be the offensive tide that lifts all skill position boats.

We saw this on Sunday when Fields hooked up Cole Kmet with a career day including two touchdowns. And now Darnell Mooney is getting back into the act after an abysmal first four games of the season. Through Week 4 of 2022, Mooney had just eight catches for 121 yards including one game with negative receiving yards. But in the last four weeks, Mooney averages almost eight targets, six receptions, and 60 yards per game. Plus, he finally, FINALLY, caught his first touchdown on Sunday.

Mooney is only in his third NFL season and just turned 25 less than two weeks ago. Even though the catch rate was awful last year, Mooney did have 140 targets and over 1,000 yards in 2021. With Fields improving as a passer week-by-week, Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet could form the Chicago version of the Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph trio in their same division from two years ago.

Stock Down

Michael Pittman, Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts

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"Help us Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. You're our only hope." The decision to start Sam Ehlinger over an aging Matt Ryan has left a Death Star-sized crater in Michael Pittman's dynasty prospects. For now. It's clear Ehlinger is more polished, comfortable, and capable as a runner, and his passing acumen is off-the-charts bad. In this last game against New England, Pittman had six targets. OK, that's fine. But the 50% catch rate and 3.67 yards per target on those throws were both clearly his worst this year and both were bottom-five in his career.

The Colts starting the year with a 3-5-1 record and currently not holding the tie-breaker against the Houston Texans (whom they tied), puts them in a no-man's-land position in terms of the draft. They currently hold the 14th pick in the draft, which puts them way out on any of the top three prospects. Perhaps they tank the rest of the way, but passing teams like the Texans and the Lions on the way to the bottom will be tough to do.

Pittman, of course, is an elite talent. He has a 95th percentile catch radius, is 10th in the position in juke rate, and has multiple games over 120 receiving yards just this season. But with his quarterback situation uncertain and no clear path to a top prospect, we have to ding him bit until some of those questions are answered.

Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers

A player's performance certainly can impact their dynasty stock, in fact it might be the biggest indicator of their dynasty value. But sometimes, it's the external factors outside their control that determines where their value lies in the future.

Such is the case for Robert Tonyan who is seeing his stock plummet due to a number of factors. First, it's clear that Aaron Rodgers is just straight washed. Rodgers just finished scoring nine points against the hapless Lions where he threw three red-zone interceptions in a dome. Second, the backup (should the Packers turn there) is Jordan Love. He has shown no signs of being a competent NFL quarterback. And you have to think the Packers would feature their running backs if they go that direction. Let's assume for a moment that the Packers throw in the towel on Love. Can they draft a quarterback at Rodgers' level? Unlikely.

The third thing working against Tonyan is newly-utilized tight end Joseph Deguara. Aaron Rodgers has been begging the Packers to give players a chance who deserve it, and Deguara's number was called on Sunday. He earned five targets (more than Tonyan) and that equaled his total from the entire rest of the year. Deguara is a massive tight end out of Cincinnati who is in his third year in the league and totaled 12 scores in his last two years in college.

Could we be seeing a small changing of the guard? Even if Tonyan hangs onto the job, it's not clear that this Green Bay offense will ever get back to the glory years of prime Aaron Rodgers.

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