2022 Dynasty Football Week 17 Stock Watch

by Ryan Kirksey
2022 Dynasty Football Week 18 Stock Watch

Welcome to the 2022 Dynasty Football Week 17 Stock Watch article.

One single week in the NFL is often the definition of overreaction theater, much less the week-to-week game of Fantasy. Each player has data from which we draw conclusions. We are forced to use that information to make decisions moving forward.

We tend to evaluate each week's Fantasy performances thinking about the short term. What does the data tell us about what to expect for a defined period of time, or for the rest of the season? But we can also draw conclusions from a longer-term Dynasty perspective.

Who saw their stock rise based on usage or opportunity in Week 16? Who saw it fall due to their own performance, lack of usage, or because of a change in role? Let’s dive in and find out.

2022 Dynasty Football Week 17 Stock Watch

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Stock Up

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos

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Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has been in the league for almost three full years now and he is still four months away from turning 24 years old. That's one light at the end of this dumpster fire of a disaster for the Broncos. The last three weeks have shown that Jeudy is not ready to give up his Fantasy relevance with Russell Wilson just yet.

With Courtland Sutton injured or limited, Jeudy has been on a rampage, even in a low-powered Broncos offense. Over the past three weeks, Jeudy is third among all wide receivers in PPR Fantasy points (65.6). In that span, he averages nine targets, seven catches, 89 yards, and one touchdown per game. With the firing of Nathaniel Hackett this week, will we finally see that there could have been some life to this offense all along and that Russell Wilson didn't suddenly forget how to throw at age 33?

Wilson still can get the ball down the field and Jeudy remains one of the best in deep targets. His 21 deep targets are 13th in the NFL and he is now top-20 in yards after the catch this season. And this is with Wilson throwing him targets at a 79% catchable rate (just 36th in the league).

How the Broncos reshape their offense in the offseason will be one of the more fascinating storylines of 2023. They are fully pot-committed with Wilson, so they must work around those strengths and limitations. Javonte Williams will be back, Greg Dulcich is emerging, and Sutton will be 28 years old and in the first year of a ballooning extension that pays him at least $13 million for three straight years. However, the Broncos can get out of that contract after 2023 with only a $7.6 million cap hit, which is something they might need to do considering what they will be paying Wilson.

Meanwhile, Jeudy will make just $2 million dollars next year and then the Broncos can decide to pick up his fifth-year option in 2024 before having to commit long-term. All those ancillary signs point to this being Jeudy's WR1 gig to lose in the years to come.

Isaiah Hodgins, WR, New York Giants

No one will blame you if you hadn't heard of Isaiah Hodgins before about three weeks ago. But with injuries to Sterling ShepardKenny GolladayWan'Dale Robinson, and the trade of Kadarious Toney, the New York Giants have been forced to scrape the bottom of the wide receiver barrel for bodies to play on the field. In the process, they have given guys like Richie James and Darius Slayton major run, but they may have uncovered a real asset in Isaiah Hodgins.

Hodgins was a late sixth-round pick by Buffalo out of Oregon State in 2020 with terrible combine scores. He did not play in 2020 and got into part of just one game in 2021, spending much of the year on the practice squad. He was languishing there again this year (after being released by Buffalo) until be got a chance on October 9th. Just eight games later, he has evolved into a player Daniel Jones can truly rely on.

The Giants aren't really thought of as a passing team, ranking 25th in the league with a 52% pass-play rate this year. But with Daniel Bellinger healthy and Hodgins producing, that number has increased to almost 61% in the last three weeks as the Giants have maintained their playoff positioning.

Saquon Barkley has been a roller coaster of production again, the wide receiver corps is decimated, so Hodgins should get a real shot in the next two weeks and is still available in many redraft and Dynasty leagues. Where he latches on next year is a guess right now, but he is earning a spot with his play and he just turned 24 years old.

Stock Down

Malik Willis, QB, Tennessee Titans

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I've made a point to read and listen to as much analysis on Malik Willis as I could over the past few days. His team lost to the then one-win Houston Texans and Willis completed 14 of 23 passes for only 99 yards, no scores, and two touchdowns. He did rush for one score, but his 34.5 quarterback rating was his worst of the year, which is saying something. The phrase that keeps appearing the most in Willis analysis is "not NFL ready." Sure, his rushing ability is there, but as Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts have shown us, this league requires you to have a competent passing game, and Willis is just not that guy yet.

The consistent theme that was emerging was that Willis was making it way too easy on the defense to read his throws and react.

This is, of course, a chicken or egg problem. Willis' top receivers are an old Robert Woods, a fresh-off-concussion Treylon Burks, and middling tight end Austin Hooper. He has emerging Chig Okonkwo at tight end as well, but Willis mysteriously only targeted him twice on Christmas Eve. Would Willis perform better with a better receiving corps? What if he had A.J. Brown still at his disposal?

Now, this is not an "add/drop" column so I don't recommend just letting Willis go in dynasty leagues. But his stock is falling and it's not just from Fantasy analysts. The Titans simply must make some additions to the receiving room this offseason. They have maybe one or two good years of Derrick Henry left and will need a new identity centered around a concept similar to what the Eagles have done with Hurts. He has elite receiving weapons which stretches the field and allows Hurts' legs to be a potent weapon.

That's the recipe for success with Willis going forward, but right now what he is cooking up is a disaster.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Tyler Boyd is what you would call a very consistent, but not spectacular, wide receiver. His 711 yards and five touchdowns this year are excellent WR4 or Flex and he has a stable, reliable floor. In 13 of his 15 games this season, he has at least four targets and he has at least 40 yards in seven of those games. But dynasty managers looking ahead at this offense should know that his time in one of the best pass environments in the league may soon be coming to a close.

In 2023, Boyd will be in his age 29 season and in the last year of a four-year, $43 million dollar deal with the Bengals. He should remain similarly productive through that season, but the emergence of Trent Irwin complicates this somewhat. In his eight games this year, the former Bengals practice squad player has 14 receptions for 219 yards and four touchdowns. He has shown a knack for making tough endzone catches and his playing time is starting to reflect that.

In the first game, all four primary Bengals receivers were active and healthy, Irwin and Boyd essentially split snaps. Boyd played 51% of the snaps while Irwin checked in at 45%. That was up from 24% in Week 15 and was the closest Boyd and Irwin have been in a game all season when all Bengals skill players were healthy.

Despite ranking 108th among all wide receivers in routes run, Irwin ranks 30th in total touchdowns. With the league's sixth-highest passing percentage, the Bengals can distribute to a lot of players, but as 2023 comes we might start to see a changing of the guard at their WR3 slot.


Check out our Fantasy Football Week 17 Rankings!

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