2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers and Fallers

by Mike Sollicito
Starting Pitcher Innings and Wins Falling Sharply

The season officially starts in a little over one week! As teams prepare for the season, they have been taking part in Spring Training. With Spring Training comes many mixed performances which can sometimes change where a player is drafted. As a result, this leads to there being 2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers and Fallers.

For the sake of this piece, I am comparing ADPs from the first two weeks of March to the last two weeks of March. With free agency opening back up at this time, I felt as though March will present some interesting ADP Risers and Fallers based on where players landed, trades, and much more.

Here at Fantasy Six Pack, we have our own set of rankings that can help you out when drafting. For redraft leagues, we have our 2022 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. We also have 2022 Dynasty Baseball Rankings for any Dynasty Baseball manager.

For this piece, the rankings I am using to base these players' ADP on are the 2022 NFBC ADP Rankings. I like this tool because it allows you to look at ADPs based on specific timeframes.

Now, as always if you have any comments, questions, or concerns feel free to message or tweet me @MikeSollicito1 on Twitter! Without further ado, let's hop right into the 2022 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers and Fallers.

2o22 Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers and Fallers

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ADP Risers

Trevor Story, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox

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Earlier in March, Story was being drafted as a top 50 player in redraft leagues. However, now that he has signed with the Boston Red Sox, his draft stock has increased. Story is now being drafted as a borderline top 30 player, and I feel that best fits him.

Story will take over as the primary second baseman as he joins an already solid Red Sox lineup. He should provide some speed and power, although the average could be lacking. On the bright side, his pull-heavy ways as a right-handed hitter should play well in Fenway. He should be able to garner a good amount of doubles off the Green Monster.

Not only that, he should hit somewhere in the middle of the lineup. This lineup will include the likes of JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec, among others. He should have no problem producing runs and RBIs this year.

One concern I do have for Story is his average away from Coors. He batted a not-so-great .203 on the road. His power and speed should be enough to offset the uncertainty in the batting average. Plus, his new eligibility at second base should make him an even more attractive target.

Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros

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Much like Story, Verlander has seen his ADP rise as of late. Originally going a little after pick 100, Verlander is now going comfortable around the top 80. This puts him around other starters like Lance Lynn and Kevin Gausman. I would take Verlander over both of them despite the question marks he may face in terms of innings this year.

Verlander is a stud when healthy despite him being 39-years old. He has shown that so far this spring, looking like his old self and hitting as high as 94-95 mph on his fastball. Through two spring starts so far, he has thrown 4.2 scoreless innings.

While drafting a 39-year old coming off of Tommy John Surgery may bring red flags, I do think Verlander is the type of player who knows his body well and is constantly looking to get better. There may be some rust for his first few starts of the regular season, but I expect him to get back into a groove quickly.

I think Verlander's rising ADP is warranted, but keep an eye on it if it gets too high. He remains a solid target as of right now, but if he keeps pitching well in spring training it could inflate a bit too high.

ADP Fallers

Fernando Tatis Jr. SS, San Diego Padres

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Tatis was an obvious ADP faller this offseason after news came out that he fractured his left wrist and would undergo surgery. He is expected to be out for at least three months. With this news, he has gone from an early first-rounder to now being drafted outside the top 60.

Tatis is immensely talented at baseball and his upside is unparalleled. The wrist surgery throws a wrench into his 2022 plans, but I think that he could be a solid value depending on how far he falls. Top 60 is still a stretch for me in redraft, but I can see making the case to draft him here.

I would want to wait and see how far he drops before making a move for him. One of my main concerns is that he is going to be a bit behind, so while it may only be three months until he is healthy again, that doesn't mean the rust is gone. He will have to get baseball ready after missing spring training.

Tatis is most likely worth the risk, but I think he may continue to fall in drafts and you could get him at even more of a discount. The talent of this player is undeniable as evident by his first-round fantasy pedigree, but the injury has me concerned with how long it may be until we truly see him on the field doing his thing again.

For me, it depends on where your team is at and if you can afford to waste an early-ish pick on him. If your team is stacked early or you have confidence in hitting on your later picks, go for it. The price may be a bit too rich for me at this moment with the news we have.

Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

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A second player who has seen their ADP fall in recent weeks has been Kevin Gausman. While Gausman's stock has not fallen too much, it is one I expect to continue to fall.

Last season, Gausman looked amazing. He finished sixth in NL Cy Young voting which helped him get paid this offseason. Now with the Blue Jays, Gausman has the support of an elite offense behind him which should help boost his win total. One thing I am concerned about is that he will be facing the AL East. The AL East is arguably one of the best divisions in baseball.

All of the teams (except for the Orioles and their new extensions to left field) have decent hitter's parks. Not only that, but the offenses in this division are scary. Facing them multiple times this year is not ideal. I believe that Gausman is due for some regression this year. While he should be a contributor in the strikeouts and wins, the uncertainty in his ERA/WHIP has me concerned.

All in all, I am probably fading Gausman this year. It would not surprise me to see his ADP continue to fall as the season approaches.

With the fantasy baseball season just a week and a half away, be sure to keep up with all of Fantasy Six Pack's content! The best place to find everything you need for your draft is in our 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. Keep up with all the awesome content provided here throughout the rest of the off-season.

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