2022 Fantasy Baseball: Camden Yards Analysis

by Charles Vakassian
2021 Dynasty Player of the Week: Cedric Mullins

Welcome to a special edition of the 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Primer! Today, we will be looking at a rather unique situation. Camden Yards will be increasing the height of its left-field wall from seven feet up to 12 feet. In addition, certain sections of the fence in left field will be pushed back, up to 30 feet. This is going to have an impact on several different teams and players.

Our goal is to analyze the main victims and how that could play out in Fantasy Baseball moving forward.

2o22 Fantasy Baseball: Camden Yards Analysis

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Home Cooking no more?

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Orioles hitters are going to be the most affected by this change because they play half of their games at Camden Yards. The right-handed hitters will be especially affected. Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays, power bats good for 20 plus homers, will see their totals affected. At their current ADP's, both players are more of a fade at 111 and 225, respectively.

The only other hitter who could potentially be impacted is Adley Rutschman. The stud prospect is a switch hitter and could see his power numbers suppressed. That being said, I don't see that affecting his fantasy numbers that much. His ADP of 172 is a good value because he will likely start the year in the bigs.

Best of the Rest

New York Yankees

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The Yankees have a lineup that is chock full of right-handed hitters, and would wreak havoc at Camden Yards. Sluggers Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez have been abusing the left-field fence since they arrived in the Bronx. Gleyber Torres hit 13 home runs in 16 games against the Orioles in 2019, abusing the left-field stands.

In 10 games at Camden Yards in 2021, the Yankees mashed 20 home runs, an average of two per game. With the Yankees seeking more left-handed hitters in their lineup for 2022. With the fences being pushed back, expect the home run total to drop.

As a result, players like Judge and Stanton will lose a few home runs each. However, it is not enough to change any feelings I have to draft them at their current ADP.

Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays were especially brutal to the Orioles in 2021 and crushed 21 home runs in only nine games at Baltimore. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the main culprit, bashing nine dingers at Camden Yards. He averaged a home run per game in that ballpark, a ridiculous statistic.

He wasn't alone in being the only righty hitter to enjoy the friendly confines of Camden Yards. Lourdes Gurriel cranked five homers himself in the nine games played in Baltimore. As a result of the new dimensions, expect to see a reduction in the homer totals for most of the Blue Jays righty bats.

That being said, be comfortable drafting most of them at their current ADP, as Vlad is a superstar and Bo Bichette is a top 10 fantasy shortstop.

Tampa Bay Rays

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The Rays saw Camden Yards as a home away from home, as they hit a whopping 25 home runs in the nine games played in Baltimore. However, these home runs were very evenly spread out among the players, with no player having more than four home runs.

The only right-hand hitters with real pop on the fantasy radar are Mike Zunino and Randy Arozarena. However, they didn't really abuse the Camden Yards fences. The Rays are fine where they are for fantasy and, therefore, no changes should be made to your draft strategy.

Boston Red Sox

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Since the Orioles are the punching bag of the AL East, it only makes sense that the Red Sox joined in the beating. Boston crushed 19 homers at Baltimore in 2021. These home runs came mostly from Hunter Renfroe, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers.

However, Renfroe is no longer in Boston and Devers used the right-field wall as a pull hitter from the left side. Martinez may see a small reduction in pop from the right side, as the fence in left is pushed back. Therefore, no change in draft strategy is recommended for Boston players.

Concluding Thoughts

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If you are playing in a points league, these changes being made will not affect you as much. For category leagues, just take heed of your AL East players, as there is a good chance they see a reduction in home runs.

However, there could be an increase in extra-base hits, as there is more room in the outfield for line drives and fly balls to drop in. Take all of this information and bear it in mind when you draft.

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