2022 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Corner Infielders

by Dap Scout
2022 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Corner Infielders

The 2022 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Corner Infielders guide is the best way to avoid overpaying for a player when you can get the discounted version a few rounds later.

An overvalued player really will depend on a few things:

  • Your roster make up
  • Did you read my Undervalued Corner Infielders article
  • How much your league values a certain position (if there are ten 3rd baseman picked in the 2nd round, then it is time maybe jump on a 3rd baseman regardless of the round grade)

Let me help you spotlight some corner infielders who I feel are overvalued.

2022 Fantasy Baseball Overvalued Corner Infielders

Get prepared for the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season by using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

As a reminder, this is based on a 12 team redraft league with 26-28 player rosters. All positions and ADP are from NFC (2-15-22).

Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves (Current ADP 53)

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Austin Riley is a player that I have in A LOT of dynasty leagues. However, this is about ADP vs. value. I love Riley (did I mention I really really like him) but there is not much value in his current ADP of 53.

ZiPS Projections for 2022 for Austin Riley are - .271/.337/.495/.832 with 31 HRs, 82 Runs, and 96 RBIs.

"So Dap Scout, what is the problem, that line looks great!" You are right that is a great line. However, this is a discussion about value. Currently, the next five 3rd Baseman going after Austin Riley are:

Adalberto Mondesi - ADP 59 - ZiPS Projections can be found in his write up below

Nolan Arenado - ADP 71 - ZiPS Projections - .263/.324/.477 with 29 HRs, 78 Rs, 96 RBIs

Alex Bregman - ADP 90 - ZiPS Projections - .274/.380/.495 with 23 HRs, 82 Rs, 84 RBIs

Kris Bryant - ADP 92 - ZiPS Projections - .261/.351.463 with 23 HRs, 82 Rs, 70 RBIs

The player I would like to bring your attention to is further down the list at ADP 157 - Justin Turner. Let's compare Austin Riley's 2021 and Justin Turner's 2021

Austin Riley.303.367.531.8983391107
Justin Turner.278.361.471.832278787

Austin Riley's Slugging Percentage advantage shows up in the six additional Home Runs and 20 more RBIs. Beyond that, the numbers are very similar. Now let's compare their ZiPs Projections for 2022:

Austin Riley.271.337.495.832318296
Justin Turner.264.343.427.770197073

ZiPS projects a pretty steep dropoff for the 37-year-old Dodgers' 3rd Baseman. I don't always agree with ZiPS, and in this case, I feel they are being too aggressive with Justin Turner's regression.

Again, I LOVE Austin Riley (have I mentioned that yet?), but I would rather take Kris Bryant or Justin Turner 4 to 5 rounds later. This way I can focus on addressing shallower positions early in the draft.

Adalberto Mondesi, 3B, Kansas City Royals (Current ADP 59)

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EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. Adalberto Mondesi is one of the most polarizing players. I can already read the headlines:

"Don't Draft Adalberto Mondesi"

"Draft Mondesi he is too good when he is healthy"

"You can't draft scared so draft Mondesi"

Every season I get burned by Aldaberto Mondesi not because I own him, but because I always go up against him in my head-to-head leagues when he is on one of his hot streaks.

When Mondesi is on a hot streak he is an ELITE offensive player with one of the highest ceilings. However, let's look at some important numbers:

25, 75, 102, 59, 35

Those are the number of games Adalberto Mondesi has played in each season from 2017-2021. In a redraft format, I cannot afford to have a player that is going to likely miss more than half the season.

I hope I am wrong. I hope Mondesi plays 130+ games. However I doubt he will. Again this is all about value and with an ADP this high we should look elsewhere.

ZiPS Projections - .248/.285/.434, with 12 HRs/49 Rs/45 RBIs/36 SBs in 94 Games. I really want to see what Mondesi could do in 90+ games (just like in 2019). However, there is no way I am taking a gamble on Mondesi at ADP 59.

Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles - Current ADP 109

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Again, this one hurts because I have Ryan Mountcastle on a lot of my dynasty rosters.

To review, last year, in his first full season, Mountcastle hit .255/.309/.487/.796 with 33 HRs/77 Rs/89 RBIs and a 27.5 K%. He even broke Cal Ripken Jr's Baltimore Orioles rookie home run record. Overall it was a pretty great rookie year.

During the offseason, Oriole Park is changing its dimensions and pushing back the outfield walls. Over at Pitcher List, Chad Young (@chadyoung) did an excellent deep dive on how the new shape of the stadium could affect home run totals. The article "Oriole Park Changes Shape" concludes that Mountcastle would lose between 3-4 home runs from the previous year. 3-4 Home Runs doesn't initially sound like a lot but lets dive a little deeper into those Home Runs.

Mountcastle had 36% "No Doubters" Home Runs (found here),  putting him right next to Joey Votto (Votto is going around pick 148). Also, he outperformed his xHR in 2021 which was 28.9. So suddenly we have a possible, .255 AVG mid-20's HR First Baseman being taken before Jared Walsh, Josh Bell, CJ Cron, and Rhys Hoskins?

ZiPS Projections - .268/.313/.484/.797, 29 Home Runs, 74 Runs, 93 RBI for 2022. Even with a decrease of 3-4 Home Runs from this number, Ryan Mountcastle is still looking at a good 2022. However, the price tag of ADP 109 is too expensive for these stats.

I would much rather grab Ty France who is available at around pick 139. As I mentioned in my Undervalued Corner Infielders article I expect 25+ HRs from Ty France along with 90+ Rs and 90+ RBIs in a great injury bounce-back campaign in 2022.

Luis Urias, 2B/3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers (Current ADP 156)

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Luis Urias went from 0 Home Runs in 2020 (41 Games) to 23 Home Runs in 150 Games in 2021. Urias' overall stat line looked great with .249/.345/.445 23 HRs, 77 Rs, 75 RBIs.

With the big leap in production comes a huge leap in ADP. Urias was hovering around ADP 225 in 2021 and is already at 156. I expect to see the hype increase and drive him into the 130s or higher depending on how the delayed offseason shakes out.

Jack Stern (@baseball7310) did some great analysis on Luis Urias' power numbers in "Luis Urias is finding his power stroke". The article goes over many aspects of Urias' season after his wrist injury in 2020 including this great quote:

Urias also possesses one of the highest spikes in the league in average launch angle from 2020 to 2021—2.3 degrees to 14.6 degrees. His pull rate has jumped from 41.6% to 49.1%. An emphasis on pulling the ball in the air doesn’t work for everyone, but it works for a significant percentage of hitters.

Again I'm not saying that Luis Urias is not a good/great player, what I am trying to point out is his ADP is too high.

ZiPS Projections - .252/.346/.431 20 HRs/76 Rs/75 RBIs - These numbers absolutely worry me with such a low Home Run total. Baseball Savant has his xHRs from 2021 at 21. This puts his ZiPS projection for Home Run regression for 2022 in better context. I would rather draft Alec Bohm (who I wrote about here) at ADP 284.

Be sure to keep an eye on the 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit!

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