Welcome everyone to the 2022 Fantasy Baseball: Overvalued Pitchers article. In this article, I will be going over the pitchers being valued too high in Fantasy Baseball drafts.
First off, I'm not saying don't draft these guys, but where they are being ranked right now, it's not worth the pick. If they fall a few picks, or even a round or two, jump on the opportunity.
I probably don't need to say this, but as always, be careful drafting pitchers early. They are the most susceptible to injuries (Jacob deGrom) and can really hurt your season if they go down.
2022 Fantasy Baseball: Overvalued Pitchers
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Don't Be Reaching For The Stars
Reaching for these guys can really cost you in your drafts.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies (P12)
What happened to Aaron Nola in 2021? He was supposed to be a star pitcher in fantasy, but he absolutely wet the bed on that one.
In 2021, Aaron Nola went 9-9 with a 4.63 ERA (highest since 2016). His H/9 (8.2; highest since 2017), and HR/9 (1.3) were career-worsts.
His HR% (3.5%) is his career-worst. However, that's not the worst of it. In Aaron Nola's career, his GB% is sitting at 48.5%. Now in 2021, it dropped all the way down to 40.8%. This could be the reason why his H/9 was so high, along with his ERA.
Luis Castillo, Cincinnatti Red (P23)
Do not get burned again by Luis Castillo. Last year, he was ranked in the top-15, then proceeded to be the worst pick for many fantasy players. Most people probably sent him to the waiver wire, to be honest.
Now it's 2021 and we are in the same boat. He is now being ranked as P23, which is incredibly too high.
Last year, Luis Castillo was 8-16 with a 3.98 ERA (led the league). He had career-worst numbers in WHIP (1.364), H/9 (8.7), and BB/9 (3.6). What's really alarming is that his K% dropped almost 7% points from 2020 and around 4% lower than his career. That was his shtick too, so if he is struggling with that then he is in trouble.
Leave him off your draft boards and let someone else deal with him.
Be Wary of One-Hit Wonders
Are they the real deal? Or no?
Robbie Ray, Seattle Mariners (P14)
Last year, Robbie Ray was the AL Cy Young award-winner last year. He was 13-7 and led the league in WAR (6.7), ERA (2.84), and K's (248).
You are probably thinking, why is he on here? Well, other than in 2021, Robbie Ray has been mediocre at best.
In 2019, Robbie Ray had an ERA of 4.48 and in 2020, he had a 6.62 ERA. His career BB/9 (3.9) is troublesome and it looks like most of his numbers in 2021 were outliers.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (P26)
Logan Webb was the darling of everyone's eye in the MLB Playoffs. He put his name on the map in 2021, but can he sustain that success? In his previous two seasons, he was nowhere near this electric. Time will tell to see if this was a one-hit-wonder or not.
Last year, Logan Webb went 11-3 with a 3.03 ERA and a very impressive BB/9 (0.5), HR/9 (0.5), and a FIP of 2.72. That's insane. He also had a career-best in WHIP (1.106) and K/9 (9.6).
In 2021, Logan Webb went over 100 innings for the first time in his career. This is something to be alarmed about, along with the fact that his previous career-low ERA was 5.22. His numbers in 2021 compared to his career numbers is something to look out for.
I'm not saying don't draft Logan Webb, but be cautious when taking him.
The Free Agents
When will they sign? As of right now, they aren't on a team and should not be drafted this high.
Carlos Rodon, Free Agent (P. 32)
Carlos Rodon, just like Clayton Kershaw below, deserves to be on a team. It's just a matter of when and where he will sign.
Last year, Carlos Rodon was lights out. He was 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA and a very impressive 12.6 K/9. Unfortunately, he was dealing with injuries at the end of the year, so he couldn't improve upon those stats.
All of this sounds good if he was on a team. Coming in at pitcher 32, there is no reason to be drafting him there just yet. Wait till he signs with a team, then you can take him there.
Until then, let him slip a few rounds.
Clayton Kershaw, Free Agent (P. 49)
It's a little jarring to see Clayton Kershaw, not on the dodgers. One of the greatest pitchers of this generation is currently a free agent (age 33) and that doesn't sit right with me.
Let's hope he finds a team soon. Until then, leave him off your draft boards. He is not worth this high of a pick without being on a team.
Last year, Clayton Kershaw went 10-8 with a 3.55 ERA.
That should do it for the 2022 Fantasy Baseball: Overvalued Pitchers article.
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