2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

by Mike Schneider

Welcome to the September 30th edition of the 2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings.

This is the final prospect rankings of the regular season.  I plan to do a mini update after the Arizona Fall League.

This google sheets link shows all the 2022 updates for a historical perspective.

2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

The minor league seemed to fly by but so much changed over the course of the season. After the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season and the late start to the MiLB year in 2021, this year seemed mostly back to normal.

In this year in review edition of the prospect rankings, I will be grouping prospects into lists of between five and 15 prospects. There are three broad categories (general minor league prospects, MLB rookies and recent MLB drafts).

The 2022 Year in Review for Baseball Prospects

Prospect of the Year

There were five prospects that spent the majority of the year in the minors in 2022 and stood out based on their productivity and the potential to be elite major league players with huge fantasy upside.

Entering this year Corbin Carroll's in game pro experience was limited to 42 games at rookie levels in 2019 and seven games in 2021 at High A before missing the remainder of the season with a shoulder injury.  He made the most of those seven games last year and this year showed tremendous power and speed potential.

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Elly De La Cruz emerged last June after 11 dominant games in the Arizona Complex League and continued to impress at Single A Daytona.  In 2022 De La Cruz split the season between High A and AA.  there is some swing and miss in his games but no prospect has a higher ceiling,

In 2021 Gunnar Henderson put up solid numbers despite being young for his age between Single A and High A. However, in 2022 Henderson showed significant improvement with his command of the strike zone going from good to elite and he has continued into impress as the youngest player in the majors in September.

There were several top high school shortstop in the 2021 draft and Jordan Lawlar clearly was the best of these in their first full pro season.  Lawlar has a very well rounded game.  He reached AA at the end of the year and could be in the majors by the end of  2023.

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Jackson Chourio was the 2022 version of Elly De La Cruz last season  He went from unknown to the most talked about prospect in baseball seemingly overnight.  Despite his age, the Brewers were aggressive with Chourio who ended the season in AA.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Corbin CarrollARICFMLB22
Elly De La CruzCINSSAA20
Gunnar HendersonBALSS/3BMLB21
Jordan LawlarARISSAA20
Jackson ChourioMILCFAA18

Pop Up Hitting Prospects

These prospects were not on my prospect radar at the beginning of the year.

Versatile Ceddanne Rafaela started fast earning a promotion to AA Portland where he had double figure homers and stolen based in 71 games.

Kerry Carpenter was a 18th round draft pick in 2019 out of Virginia Tech who had a .752 OPS as a corner outfielder in 2021 at AA Erie but crushed all year and was playing semi-regularly in the majors at the end of the year.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Ceddanne RafaelaBOSCFAA22
Christian Encarnacion-StrandCIN3BAA22
Edwin ArroyoCINSSAA19
Jackson ChourioMILCFAA18
Kerry CarpenterDETLFMLB25
Vaun BrownSFLFAA24
Yiddi CappeMIASSAA20

Pop Up Pitching Prospects

There are several pitchers in this grouping that have top of the rotation upside.

One who likely does not have the command to be a starter, Joe Boyle is particularly interesting to me.  Boyle had a .107 batting average against at High A Dayton before getting promoted to AA.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Andrew AbbottCINLHPAA23
Gordon GraceffoSTLRHPAA22
Jarlin SusanaWSHRHPA18
Joe BoyleCINRHPAA23
Marco RayaMINRHPA20
Ricky TiedemannTORLHPAA20
Robert GasserMILLHPAAA23
Tink HenceSTLRHPA20

Leap Forward Hitting

These prospects were on the radar coming into the year but they showed improvement and move up the rankings in 2022.  Except for James Wood all of these prospects could be in the majors next year.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Addison BargerTORSSAA22
Alec BurlesonSTLRFMLB23
Elly De La CruzCIN3B,SSAA20
Endy RodriguezPITCAAA22
Esteury RuizMILCFMLB23
Ezequiel TovarCOLSSMLB21
James WoodWSHCFAAA20
Lenyn SosaCWSSSMLB22
Michael MasseyKC2BMLB24
Oscar ColasCHWCFAAA24
Sal FrelickMILCFAAA22

Leap Forward Pitching

Andrew Painter, Dax Fulton and Quinn Priester from this group in particular have ace potential.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Andrew PainterPHIRHPAAA19
Brandon PfaadtARIRHPAAA23
Brayan BelloBOSRHPMLB23
Dax FultonMIALHPAAA20
Gavin StoneLADRHPAAA23
Hunter BrownHOURHPMLB24
Quinn PriesterPITRHPAAA22

Downgraded

As prospects emerge and move up the rankings, there are going to be other prospects that move down.  These prospects saw their prospect status decline in 2022.

The issue with many of these hitting prospects is related to contact and the issue with many of the pitching prospects is command.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Asa LacyKCLHPAA23
Austin HendrickCINRFHigh A21
Austin MartinMINSSAAA23
Brennen DavisCHCCFAAA22
Cole WinnTEXRHPAAA22
Erick PeñaKCCFA19
Euribiel AngelesOAK2BHigh A20
Garrett MitchellMILCFMLB24
Greg JonesTBSSAA24
Heliot RamosSFCFMLB23
Hunter BishopSFCFHigh A24
Jordan BalazovicMINRHPAAA24
Jordyn AdamsLAACFAA22
Josh MearsSDCFAA21
Kahlil WatsonMIASSA19
Luis MedinaOAKRHPAA23

Rebounded

The prospects in this group rebounded nicely from a poor year in 2021.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Bo NaylorCLECAAA22
Jerar EncarnacionMIARFMLB24
Jeremy De La RosaWSHCFHigh A20
Kyle MullerATLLHPMLB24
Wenceel PerezDET2BAAA22

Injuries Impacted 2023

These prospects missed a lot of time in 2023 due to an injury.  However, they should be fine going forward.  Morris, Rodriguez and Jung would likely have graduated as prospects if not for their injury.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Brady HouseWASSSAAA19
Cody MorrisCLERHPMLB25
Daniel EspinoCLERHPAA21
Grayson RodriguezBALRHPAAA22
Heston KjerstadBALRFHigh A23
Josh JungTEX3BMLB24
Luis MatosSFCFHigh A20
Marco LucianoSFSSHigh A21
Nick GonzalesPIT2BAA23
Nick YorkeBOS2BHigh A20

More Severe Injury

These prospects have more of a potential of having suffered a career impacting injury.  As to be expected, most are pitchers.  Many would have graduated as prospects, some prior to 2022, if not for their injury.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Brailyn MarquezCHCLHPMLB23
Brendan McKayTBLHPMLB26
Brent Honeywell Jr.OAKRHPMLB27
Cole HenryWASRHPAAA23
Hans CrousePHIRHPMLB24
Luis GilNYYRHPMLB24
Max MeyerMIARHPMLB23
Royce LewisMINSSMLB23
Seth JohnsonBALRHPHigh A24
Sixto SánchezMIARHPMLB24

Prospects that Will Move Up the Rankings in 2023

Included here are four prospects under 20.  Several of these prospects emerged in 2021 and I expect will be even better next year.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Deyvison De Los SantosARI3BAA19
Dylan BeaversBALOFHigh A21
Edgar QueroLAACA19
Emmanuel RodriguezMINCFA19
Endy RodriguezPITCAAA22
Lazaro MontesSEAOFDSL17
Marco RayaMINRHPA20
Mason BlackSFRHPHigh A22
Porter HodgeCHCRHPHigh A21
Yoendrys GómezNYYRHPAA22

International Teenage Prospects

These are the most advanced prospects under the age of 20 that were international signings.  There is a mixture of pop-up prospects and prospects that have been well known for a few years, big money signings, and small signings that look like bargains.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgeBonusCountry
Axel SanchezSEASSHigh A19450kDR
Deyvison De Los SantosARI3BAA19200kDR
Edgar QueroLAACAA19200kCubA
Emmanuel RodriguezMINCFAA192.75MDR
Eury PérezMIARHPAA19200kDR
Jackson ChourioMILCFAA181.9MVenezuela
Jarlin SusanaWSH from SDPAA181.7MDR
Jasson DominguezNYYCFAA195.1MDR
Jose SalasMIASSHigh A192.8MVenezuela

In the Majors

Highly Touted and Lived Up to Expectations

This was a strong year for rookies.  These were highly ranked prospects that had a strong first year and seem to be well on their way to being impact major league players for a long time.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionAge
Adley RutschmanBALC24
Bobby Witt Jr.KCSS22
Edward CabreraMIARHP24
Joe RyanMINRHP26
Jose MirandaMIN1B24
Julio RodriguezSEACF21
Nick LodoloCINLHP24
Reid DetmersLAALHP23

Rookies That Were Better Than Expected

From 21 year old Michael Harris who spent all of 2021 in High A where he had a solid but not dominant year (114 wRC+) to 30 year old Joey Menses who has a 158 wRC+ in 47 games in the majors after a 115 wRC+ in 96 games at AAA in 2022. The players in this group are responsible for a lot of fantasy league titles.

The defending World Series Champion Braves are battling the Mets for the division and have a chance to win 100 games.  but without Harris, Spencer Strider and Vaughn Grissom it would be a lot different.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionAge
Félix BautistaBALRHP27
Jake McCarthyARIRF25
Jhoan DuránMINRHP24
Joey MenesesWAS1B/RF30
Michael HarrisATLCF21
Óscar GonzálezCLERF24
Spencer StriderATLRHP23
Steven KwanCLELF25
Vaughn GrissomATL2B21

MLB Struggles

Not every rookie found instant success.  It was a difficult year for these first year players.  Some will get another chance but others may not get another chance in the majors or it will in a different role.

ProspectOrganizationPositionAge
Alek ThomasARICF22
Cristian PacheOAKCF23
Jarren DuranBOSCF26
Josh LoweTBRF24
Kevin SmithOAK3B26
Matt BrashSEARHP24
Spencer TorkelsonDET1B23
Vidal BrujánTB2B24

Next Year MLB Impact

Of the prospects that have not debuted in the majors, these prospects have the best chance of making an impact in 2023.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Anthony VolpeNYYSSAAA21
Brayan RocchioCLESSAAA21
Brooks LeeMINSSAA21
Christian Encarnacion-StrandCIN3BAA22
Colton CowserBALCFAAA22
Daniel EspinoCLERHPAA21
Elly De La CruzCINSSAA20
Forrest WhitleyHOUSPAAA25
Francisco ÁlvarezNYMCAAA20
Gavin StoneLADSPAAA23
Grayson RodriguezBALRHPAAA22
Matt McLainCINSSAA23
Sal FrelickMILCFAAA22

2023 MLB Redraft Hitting Sleepers

This group are still prospects that could be targets of mine on a deep draft for next year.  Many of these prospects would be picks I would consider after pick 600 in a NFBC Draft Championship.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Alec BurlesonSTLLFMLB23
Brayan RocchioCLESSAAA21
Connor NorbyBAL2BAAA22
Eguy RosarioSDINFMLB23
Esteury RuizMIL2BMLB23
Estevan FlorialNYYCFMLB24
Ivan HerreraSTLCMLB21
Jonathan ArandaTBINFMLB24
Kyle StowersBALLFMLB24
Lenyn SosaCHWSSMLB22
Logan O'HoppeLAACMLB22
Miguel VargasLAD3BMLB22
Oswald PerazaNYYSSMLB22
Will BensonCLERFMLB24

2023 MLB Redraft Pitching Sleepers

There are a lot of Braves here. A few of these pitchers (Joey Wentz, Bryce Elder and Drey Jameson) may have increased their stock out of the range I would pick them with strong late season showing.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAge
Bryce ElderATLRHPMLB23
Drey JamesonARIRHPMLB25
Forrest WhitleyHOURHPAAA25
Freddy TarnokATLRHPMLB23
Joey WentzDETLHPMLB24
Kyle MullerATLLHPMLB24
Logan AllenCLELHPAAA24
Taj BradleyTBRHPAAA21

Recent MLB Drafts

This is based on age, level and how high the prospect was drafted. College prospects have a huge advantage over high school prospects when evaluating this soon.

 2022 Draft

The sample size is especially small here.  Many pitchers especially drafted in 2022 have yet to make their pro debut.

First Round Picks Off to Strong Starts

The Angels' Zech Neto who played 30 games at AA with a 132 wRC+ stands out here as someone who does not appear to need much time in the minors.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Brooks LeeMINSSAA218
Cole YoungSEASSA1921
Gavin CrossKCCFA219
Jackson HollidayBALSSA181
Spencer JonesNYYCFA2125
Zach NetoLAASSAA2113
Later Picks that Have Impressed

Instead of having a first round pick, the Dodgers had to move back ten spots to the top of the second round as a result of exceeding the competitive balance threshold.  However, the Dodgers selected catcher, Dalton Rushing out of Louisville who hit .424/.529/.778 with eight homers in 29 games at Single A Rancho Cucamonga.

Prospect OrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Dalton RushingLADCAA2140
Daniel SerrettiDETSSAA22177
Jacob MeltonHOUCFAA2264
Jud FabianBALCFHigh A2167
Tyler GuilfoilHOURHPAA22253

2021 Draft

In their first full pro season, these prospects have stood out.

First Round Picks Who Have Stood Out

For the second straight year, the Phillies used their first pick on a high school righthanded pitcher in 2021.  The Phillies 2020 first round pick, Mick Abel has had a nice start to his pro career but 2021 first rounder Andrew Painter has been even better.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Andrew PainterPHISPAA1913
Colson MontgomeryCWSSSAA2022
Gavin WilliamsCLESPAA2323
Jackson MerrillSDSSA1927
Jordan LawlarARISSAA206
Sal FrelickMILCFAAA2215
Later Pitching Prospects that Have Emerged

It is clear that there are a few organizations (Dodgers, Guardians and Rays) that have become so good at scouting and developing pitchers that their success rate at selecting mid round college pitchers that immediately are very good in the minors is quite high.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Andrew HoffmannKC from ATLRHPAA22367
Bryce MillerSEARHPAA24113
Chase SilsethLAARHPMLB22321
Dominic HamelNYMRHPHigh A2381
Emmett SheehanLADRHPAA22192
Gordon GraceffoSTLRHPAA22151
Griff McGarryPHIRHPAAA23145
Jack LeftwichCLERHPHigh A23216
Luke MurphyLAARHPAA22110
Mason MontgomeryTBLHPAA22191
Mitch BrattTEXLHPAA19134
Nick NastriniLADRHPAA22131
Nick ZwackSF from NYMLHPHigh A24502
Ricky TiedemannTORLHPAA2091
Ronan KoppLADLHPHigh A20372
Tanner BibeeCLERHPAA23156
Later Hitting Prospects that Have Emerged

Both the Padres and the Mariners were able to turn early success with high school players picked in the second round of the 2021 draft into key trade chips to acquire Juan Soto and Luis Castillo.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Aaron ZavalaTEXRFAA2238
Connor NorbyBAL2BAAA2241
Damon KeithLADRFHigh A22552
Edwin ArroyoCIN from SEASSA1948
James WoodWAS from SDCFA2062
Niko KavadasBOS1BAA23316
Quincy HamiltonHOUCFAA24148
Vaun BrownSFLFAA24296
Zack GelofOAK2BAAA2260

2020 Draft

This was the COVID draft which was only five rounds and the high school and college seasons were limited if they played at all.

 High School Standouts

No high school player from the 2020 draft has reached the majors yet but there are a number of standouts.  The Cardinals appear to have had a great draft.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Coby MayoBAL3BAA20103
Colt KeithDET3BHigh A21132
Dax FultonMIALHPAA2040
Evan CarterTEXCFAA2050
Jordan WalkerSTL3BAA2021
Kyle HarrisonSFLHPAA2185
Masyn WinnSTLSSAA2054
Mick AbelPHIRHPAA2115
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC from NYMCFHigh A2019
Tink HenceSTLRHPA2063
Tyler SoderstromOAKC/1BAAA2026
Disappointments

I tried not to include prospects that have limited due to injuries. At this point, as a whole the 2020 draft does not appear to be a great draft.

ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Aaron SabatoMin1BAA2327
Asa LacyKCLHPAA234
Austin MartinMin from TorSSAA235
Austins HendrickCINRFHigh A2112
Bryce JarvisARIRHPAA2418
Carmen MlodzinskiPITRHPAA2331
Carson TuckerCLEINFAA2023
Patrick BaileySFCHigh A2313

2019 Draft

The top prospects from the 2019 draft really started to make a impact on the major leagues this year. This appears to be a star studded draft class.

High School Standouts
The top tier high school talent from this draft really stands out.  There are not a lot of other high school talent from this draft that have emerged as prospects.

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ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Anthony VolpeNYYSSAAA2130
Bobby WittKCSSMLB2216
Corbin CarrollARICFMLB222
Daniel EspinoCLERHPAAA2124
Gunnar HendersonBALSSMLB2142
Michael Harris IIATLCFMLB2198
Quinn PriesterPITRHPAAA2218
Riley GreeneDETCFMLB215
Disappointments
There are a few first round picks from the 2019 draft that can be characterized as disappointments at this point.
ProspectOrganizationPositionHighest LevelAgePick
Cam CannonBOSINFAAA2443
Davis WendzelTEXSSAAA2541
Hunter BishopSFCFHigh A2410
Keoni CavacoMIN3BA2113
Kody HoeseLAD3BAA2525
Logan WyattSF1BHigh A2451
Nick QuintanaCIN from DET3BAA2447

Prospect Ranking Changes

There are seven new prospects added to the rankings this time.  Jackson Merrill should have been ranked all season.

RankingProspectChangeOrganizationPosition
256Jackson MerrillSDSSA
443Carlos JorgeCIN2BRookie
468Rayne DonconLADSSA
480Joshua BaezSTLRFA
490Logan WorkmanTBRHPHigh A
505Damon KeithLADRFHigh A
506Brant HurterDETLHPAA

There are three prospects that moved up the rankings by more that 100 this time with Endy Rodriguez leading the way.  Rodriguez is now in AAA for the Pirates who acquired him in January 2021 for Joey Lucchesi.

RankingProspectChangeOrganizationPositionLevel
187Endy Rodriguez136PITCAAA
268Kyle Manzardo110TB1BAA
212Jarlin Susana107WSHRHPA
140Bo Naylor75CLECAAA
303Aaron Zavala71TEXRFAA
261Yoendrys Gomez68NYYSPAA
124Oscar Colas66CWSCFAAA
188Cole Young53SEASSA
198Kyle Muller45ATLRHPMLB
194Christian Encarnacion-Strand38CIN3BAA
263Andrew Abbott35CINLHPAA
254Colson Montgomery29CWSSSAA
216Connor Norby29BAL2BAAA
94Alexander Canario28CHCCFAAA
240Reese Olson23DETRHPAA
89Dax Fulton18MIALHPAA

The prospects moving down the ranking include several pitchers that are out with injuries.

RankingProspectChangeOrganizationPositionLevel
281Erick Peña-69KCCFA
317Kameron Misner-48TBCFAA
235Nolan Jones-40CLERFAAA
112Cole Henry-32WSHRHPAAA
294Cole Sands-26MINRHPAAA
181Brailyn Marquez-20CHCLHPAA
229Hans Crouse-20PHIRHPAAA
332Brewer Hicklen-18KCRHPAAA

2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospect Rankings

*Note vs. ECR column is not how much the players rank has changed, it is the difference between my ranks and Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings

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18 comments

Jay K December 5, 2021 - 4:41 pm

Nice list. I have to choose between Marco Luciano and corbin Carroll. On base%, Slugging % and at bats are the three big offensive stats our league counts. I really want to hang on to Luciano, but those strike outs lead me to believe it will take him a lot longer to be a useful mlb/fantasy player. While Carroll seems like someone that could move quickly up the ladder and be productive.

What would you do? How worried she I be about Carroll’s recovery?

Thanks!

JK

Reply
Mike Schneider December 10, 2021 - 6:13 am

Thank you.

I am not worried about Carroll’s shoulder in 2022. He was great but it was only seven games.

I have Luciano ranked slightly higher so I would go with him However, it is close. Anyway to trade one of the them?

Reply
Comish4lif January 4, 2022 - 4:56 pm

How current is this? Your list has Shea Langeliers’ team listed as NCAA. He was drafted by the Braves in 2019, and played in the Minors for them in ’19 and ’21.

Reply
Keith Lott January 4, 2022 - 5:34 pm

Looks like the issue has been resolved – thanks for the reply!

Reply
Player, Pos, Tm – MiLB Analysis January 16, 2022 - 11:53 am

[…] ​Fantasy Six Pack: #189 on their dynasty Top 1,000+ […]

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Y.T.Mukbang February 19, 2022 - 4:28 am

Did George Kirby kick your dog ?

Reply
Mike Schneider March 1, 2022 - 6:22 am

I was actually disappointed in Kirby last year. I was expecting a close to finished product and thought he was inconsistent. He throws hard and has good control but Kirby is already 24 and has only thrown 90 pro innings and 26 in the upper minors. There are quite a few other pitching prospects I like better than Kirby.

Reply
ty w May 20, 2022 - 3:36 pm

Dropping Michael Busch 100 spots after he destroyed AA and has started off well in AAA has to be a joke…

Reply
Keith Lott May 20, 2022 - 3:40 pm

we noted that column above the table

*Note vs. ECR column is not how much the players rank has changed, it is the difference between my ranks and Fantasy Pros Expert Consensus Rankings

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César Prieto, 2B, BAL – MiLB Analysis June 5, 2022 - 11:34 am

[…] ​Fantasy Six Pack: #366 on their Fantasy Baseball Prospect Top 413 […]

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Max June 16, 2022 - 1:11 pm

How is Esteury Ruiz not in your top 100?

Reply
Mike Schneider June 17, 2022 - 8:39 am

He is going to get another big bump up next time. I may be a bit low on Esteury Ruiz due to his speed potential. He has moved up from 288 preseason to 141. There was a big question about his hit tool coming into the year. I noted on 4-30 that Ruiz’s strikeout to walk was much better this year.

Reply
Timothy July 16, 2022 - 12:05 pm

These two are deep picks but STL OF Joshua Baez and a future STL Cardinals closer P Think Hence🔥

Reply
Mike Schneider July 16, 2022 - 3:42 pm

Hence has been very impressive the last month for so. He is 355 on the prospect rankings. Baez has a lot of potential but got hurt after only one at bat this year and ended up having wrist surgery.

Reply
chilly July 31, 2022 - 4:08 am

great content. that is all. only feedback is need to promo this better for ease of find.

Reply
Joe July 31, 2022 - 9:43 am

Glad you enjoy it. The rankings article is in the main baseball rankings men, it gets moved to the top of the site every couple of months when updated and also in the sidebar “best of” section.

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