Welcome everybody to my 2022 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers article!
This is my second segment of underrated and overrated players in Best Ball formats. My last segment was the quarterbacks, and I will now be covering the Wide Receiver position.
Let's get started on what you are here for. I will give you some 2022 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Wide Receiver that I feel are over-drafted.
This article pains me as some of these players I enjoyed drafting last year were great values. But, unfortunately, this time around, they are inflated to the point that I wouldn't recommend overexposing your rosters.
2022 Fantasy Football Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers
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Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Underdog ADP - 19 .4(WR8)
RTSports ADP - 20.5 (WR7)
This one pains me more than I like to admit, but I am not in on Deebo Samuel this year. He is being drafted way too high and had a breakout season that is unlikely to be repeated. This doesn't give me much confidence with Samuel himself not wanting to reprise the role that made him a breakout. Going as a top 8 wide receiver in both formats, I would much rather draft other players with stable situations and longer bodies of work.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Samuel
There are three layers as to why I am not buying Samuel, with the first being the fact that there is off-season drama in the 49ers camp. The 49ers have been trying to resign Samuel to a contract all off-season, and the rumblings of him requesting a trade and cutting off contract talks. The reasonings haven't been concrete, but this isn't a good look for someone being taken this early. Samuel is under his rookie contract, and it is possible he doesn't resign and plays for the 49ers in 2022. But given what has occurred in the past with other receivers who didn't get extensions done. Stories such as the 2021 Allen Robinsons "injury" situation.
Secondly, even if Samuel was to be extended, he has made it clear that he doesn't want to reprise the running back role. The exact role that accounts for 84 points out of his 300+ points last season. That is 28% of his production that Samuel wants nothing to do with.
Last but not least, the quarterback change from Jimmy Garoppolo to Trey Lance is a huge deal. Not because I believe that Garoppolo is better than Lance, but rather the unknown of what Lance will be and how it will affect the overall offense of the 49ers. From last year's small sample size, Garoppolo only attempted 40-yard or longer passes eight times out of his 441 passes attempted. Lance, on the other hand, had three attempts on his 71 attempts. This doesn't even include Lance's rushing capabilities and how that may open up the offense.
Samuel is currently under many unknowns, and with his current fantasy ADP, I am not comfortable drafting him. Even if the news all swings in favor of Samuel in these next few weeks, how much can his ADP change? Does Samuel break into the first round? I find that unlikely. He's slowly trending closer to the third round, and if he were to rise back up, you would be buying him at his original price of round two. This is an avoid for now until more news breaks out.
Alternatives to Samuel
The alternatives are simple. I am drafting nearly anybody else going in the 2nd or early 3rd rounds before I consider taking Samuel. Guys like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb are players I would much rather prefer in both formats.
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Underdog ADP - 79.4 (WR38)
RTSports ADP - 97 (WR37)
One of the biggest fantasy sleepers of the 2021 season and arguably a season winner in all formats last season. He was putting up at least one touchdown from Week 15 to Week 17. It's easy to love Hunter Renfrow and hope that he can repeat. Renfrow also received a contract to stay with the Las Vegas Raiders. Sadly though, the fantasy Cinderella story will end, and I want off this carriage before it becomes a pumpkin.
Why I'm Hesitant On Buying Renfrow
Let's start with the obvious items and get mathematical at the end. Renfrow's principal benefactor last season was the lack of receiving options for the Raiders. This time around, he won't be in a plus situation. Elite wide receiver and former Derek Carr teammate Davante Adams has joined the roster. He will be the primary target for this team and eat into Renfrow's target share and red zone targets.
Renfrow 2021 numbers end of season stats were great. He had 103 receptions, 1038 yards, and nine touchdowns. The ending numbers are tremendous, but underlying numbers are unsuitable for fantasy football production, especially Best Ball formats. Renfrow's role is check downs and underneath routes. His 6.1 ADOT average and 4.4 YAC make this clear.
Assuming Renfrow can replicate his league-high 80% catch percentage. If Adams eats into 30 of the 128, Renfrow will be under 800 yards, 78 receptions, and closer to 5 touchdowns. This isn't even factoring if Darren Waller returns healthy and repeats an elite tight end season. That means on most weeks, Renfrow will contribute zero points to your Best Ball team and will ride the bench. But Renfrow's ADP is higher than possible QB1s, other team WR1s, and RB1s. Renfrow fits the category of better for real-life football/home leagues. Renfrow is not a Best Ball guy.
Alternatives to Renfrow
Here are players on Underdog that are currently going in the same range as Renfrow that I would rather draft. Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Dak Prescott, Trey Lance, Damien Harris, and Rashad Penny all go after Renfrow.
Here are players on RTsports that are currently going in the same range as Renfrow that I would rather draft. Trey Lance, Kirk Cousins, Elijah Moore, Devonta Smith, Tyler Lockett, Jerry Jeudy, Chase Edmonds, and Dallas Goedert.
Questionable WR situations
There are a few players who have suffered injuries last year or previously who are currently in a negative situation. Yet, they are drafted ahead of capable players in favorable conditions. I wouldn't say anything if these players were trending upward or going very late. That isn't the case, though. We have players who may not return till November and are unlikely to be 100% upon return being taken earlier than they should be. This capital could be spent elsewhere and will likely be better for your roster.
In the 2022 season, you got a ton of unknown situations:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chris Godwin ACL tear Week 15 - Estimated return October/November
- Underdog WR30 - ADP 64
- RTS WR27 - ADP 73
- Dallas Cowboys- Michael Gallup ACL tear Week 17 - Estimated return October/November
- Underdog WR58 - ADP 128
- RTS WR46 - ADP 118
- Detroit Lions - Jameson Williams ACL tear (Jan 10th Week 18) - Estimated return November/December
- Underdog WR61 - ADP 135
- RTS WR64 - ADP 190
- New Orleans Saints - Michael Thomas ankle injury 2020 - No clear timetable
- Underdog WR40 - ADP 80
- RTS WR33 - ADP 88
These guys are currently all in adverse situations and cost a good amount of capital, with the likelihood that they won't contribute to the team for months or maybe even the entire season. Actively drafting these players will hurt your portfolio more than help. Pivot in another direction and your wallet will thank you for it.
Check out the rest of our 2022 Fantasy Football Team Previews!