In fantasy football, each year has its busts. With the 2022 Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts, we’ll be taking a look at some of the players you should avoid like the plague.
JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, and Akili Smith.
When NFL fans hear those names, only one thing comes to mind—total busts.
Lofty expectations, undue pressure, and a myriad of other factors come together to create some of the poorest selections in NFL draft history.
Every team has had its share of busts over the years, but quarterbacks, in particular, take the most heat because of their position. They’re usually the most important player on the field and either lead their team to success or dismay.
We're going after some big names with this list, so buckle up.
2022 Fantasy Football Quarterback Busts
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Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
I don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to be a bust per se, but regression is sure to rear its ugly head.
Last season, Rodgers was a top-six fantasy quarterback, averaging 21 fantasy points per contest. Last season, the California kid was the NFL’s offensive MVP for a second consecutive season, throwing for 4,114 yards with 37 passing touchdowns.
In 2020, Rodgers was even better. Leading the Packers to a 13-3 record with 4,299 passing yards and a career-high 48 touchdowns, Rodgers ranked third in fantasy points.
It seems like the 38-year-old is aging like fine wine, so why the red flags heading into 2022?
For starters, Rodgers is bound to be hindered without his favorite target, Davante Adams.
Adams, now with the Las Vegas Raiders, is an elite NFL receiver and commanded a heavy target share while in Green Bay. Targeted 169 times in 2021, Adams was clearly the number one option in cheese country. Last season Adams’ 31.6 percent target share was second in the league.
Over the last two seasons, Adams operated near a touchdown per game rate. In 30 games played, he scored 29 touchdowns. He also brought in 238 catches and 2,927 yards.
Without Adams, Rodgers will be hard-pressed to find a consistent target, especially in the redzone. Since 2016, Rodgers and Adams connected for 64 touchdowns in or near the redzone.
With Adams in the black and silver, Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard will fight for targets.
Last season, Watkins accumulated 394 yards and a single touchdown. Lazard fared better with 513 yards and eight scores, but we’re comparing apples and oranges if Adams is in the conversation.
Expect Rodgers to live in the QB2 realm from week to week with a top-12 upside.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
After signing a five-year, $230 .5 million contract extension, Kyler Murray finally secured the bag – and he’s earned it. Murray has transformed the Arizona Cardinals from a perennial bottom feeder to a serious Super Bowl contender.
The independent study clause in Murray’s contract raised numerous red flags about his film study habits and immediately sent media outlets into a frenzy.
As a result of the heavy media attention and negative publicity, the Cardinals opted to eliminate the controversial study addendum.
While the clause is somewhat concerning, the storyline is peak NFL offseason jibber jabber. Without much to report on, things often get blown out of proportion.
For me, Murray’s issue is the lack of DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, who battled through injuries throughout 2021, will again be out for at least six games to begin the season.
The five-time Pro Bowl receiver is set to serve a six-game suspension for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy. As a result, Murray will be without one of the NFL’s premier receivers until Week 7.
Without Hopkins as the No. 1 option for a significant portion of the season and Arizona’s former WR2 Christian Kirk now in a Jaguars uniform, Murray’s outlook as a passer looks bleak.
The Cardinals did however sign Marquise Brown in the offseason. The speedy receiver coupled with an aging A.J. Green will be forced to carry the load in Hopkins’ absence.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I usually don’t bet against Tom Brady. In the past I have, and when I do, I typically get burned.
This season, however, seems different.
The retiring of Rob Gronkowski is a big strike against Brady and poses challenges for football’s most decorated quarterback.
Gronk, even as a shell of his former self, showed he was still a dynamic playmaker. In 12 games last year, he brought in 55 catches for 802 yards and six touchdowns. Surprisingly, Gronkowski ranked third among tight ends in average fantasy production across all mainstream league formats.
Last season, Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin suffered a torn ACL in Week 15. While the Bucs are hopeful for a Week 1 return for the Pro Bowler, his health remains in question.
Bruce Arians was known for being aggressive and gave Brady the opportunity to air it out to his many offensive targets. Now with former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles as head coach, it’s likely a more conservative approach will be taken.
Brady currently has an ADP of 88 according to Fantasy Pros. In this range, fantasy managers should target Super Bowl winner Matthew Stafford instead of a 45-year-old on his way out of the league.
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