2022 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

by Michael Tomlin
2022 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

For people drafting with the “Great or Late” philosophy, the 2022 Fantasy Football tight end busts are invaluable.

If you are using a high capital draft pick on a tight end you are creating a hole at running back or wide receiver already and cannot afford for that pick to bust.

You will see a couple of themes with the 2022 Fantasy Football tight end busts. I do not like tight ends that are touchdown dependent to give you value. I also do not like tight ends with new all-world receivers on their team to cut severely into their targetshares.

For the purposes of the 2022 Fantasy Football tight end busts, I am only using tight ends currently being drafted in the top twelve at the position in half-PPR scoring. I know, it is tough to call Pick 119 a “bust” but there just are not a lot of highly drafted tight ends.

All of the information for the 2022 Fantasy Football tight end busts is up to date as of August 7th. The Average Draft Position (ADP) information is per Fantasy Pros.

2022 Fantasy Football Tight End Busts

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George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers, ADP: TE4, 42.8

Trey Lance has taken over at quarterback for the 49ers. While this has 99% of the Fantasy Football analyst community salivating so that they can be “first” to “like” Lance, I think this is bad news for George Kittle.

In games in which George Kittle played and Trey Lance threw passes, Kittle received just a 5.7% target share. I know it is a tiny sample size, but it is still extremely worrisome.

Usually, a young quarterback leans on his tight end to bail him out of jams. However, because of Lance’s elite running ability, he would rather take off than find Kittle.

The other factor is Kittle’s injury history. I am far from someone who drafts with possible injury in mind (I have been touting Christian McCaffrey as the 1.01 all summer) but Kittle is a different story. The way he plays, with the physicality and zero regard for his own well-being, will naturally lead to more injuries.

So a combination of likely injury and severely diminished target share is something I want nothing to do with in the middle of Round Four.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles, ADP: TE8, 78.9

First off, if you were going to bet on the team that would have the fewest pass attempts in the league, how high is Philadelphia on your list? Probably at the top as they had the fewest passes last year, right?

Okay, well they added A.J. Brown, giving up valuable draft capital. You know that they will feature him with well over 100 targets. Devonta Smith, a former Heisman Trophy winner will get his 100+ targets as well.

When you give the running backs their 100+ targets, you are left with less than 200 targets for the rest of the team. I am not seeing Goedert come close to 50% of that remaining amount, leaving him with not enough workload to have a high ceiling.

His overall floor is lowered too with the chance that Jalen Hurts crumbles under pressure. I mean the guy was TE10 last year, with Waller and Kittle busting with injuries and no A.J. Brown on his team.
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Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills, ADP: TE9, 91.8

I mean I can almost sum this one up with two words: touchdown regression. Knox pulled in nine touchdowns on only 71 targets last season. Do you think that is repeatable?

No one in the league had as many touchdowns with as few targets. His touchdown percentage was a 20% increase from Adam Thielen’s. Travis Kelce had almost twice as many targets and the same amount of scores.

If Knox is not scoring, he does not get enough targets to produce. Stefon Diggs is still there and will be a Top-3 target getter in the league. If this Gabe Davis breakout is going to happen, then he has to be a target hog as well.

There is just no ceiling for Knox unless he catches double-digit touchdowns. Give me Aaron Rodgers or Tyler Lockett going right after him.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins, ADP: TE11, 113.1

Should I just copy and paste the Dallas Goedert information here?

Tyreek Hill is the A.J. Brown. Jaylen Waddle is the Devonta Smith. Tua Tagovailoa is the Jalen Hurts. (Ironic that the last four were all on the same team at the same time at Alabama.)

Hill is going to command 125 targets and Waddle proved that he is worth the 140 targets he received last season.

The Dolphins made it a point to add running backs and want to throw less in general. I also still am not a believer in Tua. So where is the Gesicki production coming from?

He was TE11 last season on 112 targets. He definitely is not getting more than that this season. So you are drafting him at his ceiling with a floor that is cavernous.
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Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers, ADP: TE12, 119.3

How many games last season did Freiermuth score just SIX half-PPR Fantasy Points without scoring a touchdown? That answer is two. Just twice could he get you six Fantasy points without reaching the end zone.

How many times did Freiermuth get 45 yards receiving? That would be twice as well. Freiermuth is the most touchdown-dependent tight end, even more than Dawson Knox.

Will the touchdowns be there this year? With one of Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky, or Kenny Pickett starting, I would argue the quarterback play is even at best, with a chance to be worse than last season.

Najee Harris is still there to gobble up any goal line opportunities too. I just think the offense in general will be near the bottom of the league. A bad offense is not a productive situation for a touchdown-dependent tight end.


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