2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check

by Malcolm McMillan
2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Waiver Wire Stashes

Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season is here! This means it's time for the 2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check!

Week 3 is a significant point for this column because now we officially have a three-week sample size to look at. No more speculating based on last season's performances. We now definitely know some things. Like that Curtis Samuel is going to get targeted a lot this year. Or that Davis Mills is not the answer (something readers of this column have known for some time).

However, we are still trying to figure out the unexpected wrinkles that this season has thrown our way. Like, is Mack Hollins the real deal (more on that later)? Could Jacksonville actually be good? Or are the Jaguars just bouncing back from maybe the worst coaching hire of all time?

Well, if we want to find out, we need to get into the Heat Check.

2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check

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Week 3 Heat Check Recap

In the Fantasy Football Sleepers Heat Check: Week 3 2022 I told you to grab Noah Brown, to possibly pass on Greg Dortch and to stay away from O.J. Howard. Dortch exceeded expectations yet again, though I maintain that the issue with him is simply that Rondale Moore will replace him when healthy. But until then, you can definitely roster him. I was a bit too cautious on Dortch.

The other two guys I feel I still got right. After a 0.0-point performance, admittedly nobody is questioning my advice on O.J. Howard, but Noah Brown is a bit more complicated. While he underwhelmed in terms of points scored, he still saw seven targets, and you want that volume on your bench, if not in your FLEX. Brown is still an add for me.

Finally, I covered my methodology for the Heat Check in the Week 1 article, so read that if you want to know how the Heat Check is done. As mentioned, we finally get a three-week sample size for the 2022 NFL season this week. So that's all we're using — nothing else.

2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check Quarterback

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Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

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This is what I get for calling my shot. When I recorded The Lateral Show: 2022 NFL Fantasy Football Week 4 Storylines I said I was going to highlight Jared Goff in this article. Since then, the Detroit Lions quarterback has risen to 50% rostership in Yahoo leagues, making him normally ineligible for this column. But since the ESPN rostership is below 50% we're rolling with it.

Besides, Goff does merit consideration. After three weeks he is currently QB11 and on a surprisingly high-scoring Lions offense. Despite this Goff is outside the Top 12 for FantasyPros Week 4 ECR and all the way down at QB18 in rest of season ECR. He's definitely not a total snub, but clearly, people are not quite ready to trust him as a starter yet. Are they wrong?

Jared Goff Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check

So the big flaw with Jared Goff is he can't run. At all. So that means he has to be lights out to rack up the points as he did in Week 2 against the Washington Commanders. Goff threw four touchdowns in that game to get to 26.0 points, but the next week fell back to average with just 14.9 points.

Ultimately, there are worse options than Goff out there. The Detroit Lions offense seems surprisingly good, though the injuries are starting to stack up. Plus throwing less than 40 times a game just isn't going to cut it for a pocket passer quarterback. I expect Goff to probably sit just outside the Top 12 by the season's end, but if you're in a pinch, you can stream him.

2022 Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check Wide Receivers

Mack Hollins, Las Vegas Raiders

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Mack Hollins has probably been one of the bigger surprises this year. This offseason, plenty of fantasy football analysts were debating who would be behind Davante Adams in the Las Vegas Raiders pecking order: Hunter Renfrow or Darren Waller. After three weeks though, the answer is Mack Hollins. He's currently performing at a Top 20 wide receiver pace despite having just one target in Week 1.

You wouldn't know that Hollins was killing it though if you just looked at the rankings. Hollins is WR56 in half-PPR ECR for Week 4 and a shocking WR93 in the rest of season ECR. Keep in mind, we are talking about the guy who was the WR2 overall in half-PPR scoring in Week 3. But apparently, people seem to agree with the experts. Hollins is still available in 74% of Yahoo leagues and even more in ESPN. Is the consensus right?

Mack Hollins Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check

Most of the debate around Mack Hollins at this point is: what happens when Hunter Renfrow is healthy? Renfrow suffered a concussion during Week 2 and is now out for the second consecutive week. So, first of all, pick up Hollins and play him this week if you need the FLEX/WR3 option. Hollins saw 97% of snaps with Renfrow absent last week. Even if he doesn't see 11 targets again, the opportunity is clearly there.

The other thing, is I think Hollins has a chance to be the second receiver even with Renfrow healthy, or a valuable third one. Week 1 seems to be an anomaly, but even then Hollins was on the field for 88% of snaps. That is more than Renfrow, who has seen noticeably fewer snaps; less than 70% in Week 2. The Raiders clearly plan to use three wide receiver sets a lot, and that means opportunity for Hollins. Get him on your roster now.

Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars

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This Jacksonville Jaguars offense looks night and day from the abomination we saw last year. A big part of that has been Zay Jones and Christian Kirk providing quarterback Trevor Lawrence with significant upgrades at wide receiver. Admittedly, even though I had been talking about Jones going into this season as someone to look at, even I am surprised to see him currently sitting at WR31 in half-PPR scoring through three weeks. Then again, I am also surprised to see the Jaguars leading the AFC South.

Apparently, the experts and fantasy football managers still haven't been sold on the new look Jags — though admittedly they're more realistic on Jones than they were on Mack Hollins. Jones is currently WR43 in Week 4 ECR and WR64 in rest of season rankings. Given that the gap isn't so egregious this time, could the experts be right?

Zay Jones Fantasy Football Week 4 Sleepers Heat Check

Rostering Zay Jones comes down to your roster construction. Do you have three wide receiver slots or two FLEX slots and a deep bench? You should probably have him on your roster. Even with shallower benches that type of lineup could merit having the Jacksonville Jaguars' second target.

But if you only need two wide receivers and have smaller benches? Then maybe leave Jones in the free agent pool. The target share is great, but his snap share is a little more concerning than guys like Mack Hollins. To me, that is a tiebreaker that makes me want Hollins anywhere I can get him, but less interested in Jones. Still, if you're comparing him against guys like Devin Duvernay, Isaiah McKenzie or even Jahan Dotson, I'd rather have Jones on my roster. He's definitely at least worth considering.


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