Welcome back Fantasy nerds, this is the Fantasy Six Pack 2022 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List. This list will consist of players who I will struggle to draft this Fantasy Football season for a multitude of reasons.
Whether it’s because their ADP is too high, their situation might have gotten worse, or a player had such a good year the previous season, that it could be nearly impossible to repeat it.
Now let's get into some of those wide receivers who I believe will disappoint if you draft them at their current ADP, in the 2022 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List.
2022 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Do Not Draft List
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A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles, ADP WR9, Overall 26
A.J. Brown being traded to the Philadelphia Eagles was one of the biggest off-season moves in all of fantasy football. Brown is coming off a disappointing season in which he battled with injuries. He only played in 13 games last season, but still saw 105 targets on a 27% target share which ranked 9th in the NFL. Brown caught 63 balls for 869 yards and only five touchdowns, after a season in which he caught 11.
A.J. Brown finished as WR24 on a point per game basis in half-point PPR formats with 11.5. That was a disappointing finish after he was drafted as a WR1 last draft season. That was behind guys like Brandin Cooks, Michael Pittman Jr., and Hunter Renfrow. Those are all guys going at least 17 picks later than him.
Brown moves from a team that threw it the seventh-fewest times in the NFL last season to a team that threw it the fewest times. He also has more target competition with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert stealing targets from Brown.
In order for Brown to return WR9 value, Jalen Hurts will need to take a huge step forward as a passer, or there will need to be more passing volume. I'm not sure either of those things will happen. The Eagles were far more effective as a run-first team last season.
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks, ADP WR15, Overall 42
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D.K. Metcalf finished as the WR12 overall last season as he split time with Russell Wilson and Geno Smith as his quarterbacks. He also finished as the WR18 on a point-per-game basis with 12.2, so it wasn't an absolutely awful season. Metcalf finished with more than 14 fantasy points in seven of those games. Unfortunately, he also had nine games in which he finished with 10 or fewer points.
Heading into this season, Metcalf is in the worst quarterback situation that he has had in his career. Russell Wilson has moved on to Denver which means Quarterbacks Drew Lock and Geno Smith will be battling it out to see who will be QB1 for the Seahawks.
We saw what D.K. can do with Smith as his quarterback last season, as we saw them play four games together. During that span, Metcalf finished with games of, 24.3, 8.8, 16.6, and 19.3 half-point PPR points. He was WR4 during those four games. Everything we have heard is that the Seahawks love Drew Lock. That is not good for Metcalf from a fantasy standpoint. Lock killed the fantasy production of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Metcalf and Sutton are similar players and Sutton only averaged a little more than five fantasy points per game in Locks starts.
If Lock is the starter, I have zero interest in any wideout in this offense. In 2020, the last time Lock was a full-time starter, he was terrible. According to playerprofiler.com Lock ranked 34th in accuracy rating, 37th in true completion percentage, and 34th in deep-ball completion percentage. Metcalf is a big play-type guy, but I just don't see that happening with Lock. I'd rather draft Michael Pittman Jr., Terry Mclaurin, and DJ Moore over D.K. this season.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints, ADP WR29, Overall 69
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We haven't seen Michael Thomas play a game of football since the second round of the playoffs during the 2020 season, but yet he is still going as a top-30 wide receiver? I don't really understand what's going on here. His quarterback is no longer Drew Brees, and his head coach is no longer Sean Payton. His mysterious ankle injury still seems to be an issue as well.
The last time we saw Thomas on the field he was still an elite wide receiver. All the way back in 2019 when Thomas was healthy he averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game and was the over WR1 in all of fantasy football. Now, he is 29 years old and Jameis Winston is his QB1, compared to Drew Brees.
Winston has produced a WR1 with Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, but that was a much pass happier offense than what we have seen from the Saints recently. The Saints defense is really good, so I believe they are going to want to lean on the defense and running game. They could be one of the slower-paced offenses in the NFL this season.
With everything going on around Thomas, I want nothing to do with him. There is just too much risk there as a mid-teir WR3. He is going around guys like Gabriel Davis, Hunter Renfrow, and Allen Robinson. I am taking all three of those guys over Thomas, at least I know they will play this upcoming season.
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