2022 Masters Tournament: Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2024 Masters DraftKings Deep Sleepers

A flood of emotions before we get into the meat of my 2022 Masters Tournament: Prop Bets Picks.

First off, it's Masters week! Despite liking the US Open more, this week is my favorite week of the season. To quote Jim Nantz, it really is a "tradition unlike any other."

I also come into this week with a sense of optimism as The Masters is one of the few events I can truly "see". What do I mean by that? I used to go to the track with some friends when I was a much younger man. And one of my buddies could always picture a race in his mind from start to finish. He could "see" which horses would break out early, which ones would close the gap, and what it would look like down the stretch. My friend could envision the whole race, start to finish in his mind.

He wasn't always right. But even if say he envisioned the number two horse breaking out early, I would ask him, "Got it. But what if he doesn't?" And he would reply with something like "Then he has no shot and I expect the number six horse to stake the early lead and finish at least in the money."

That's how I see the Masters. I might envision it for example being a two-man competition between Golfers X and Y, but if Golfer X can't make a putt and Golfer Y sprays his drives, then Golfer Z is gonna win it if he can avoid bunkers.

Or even more like a horse race, I might say if this golfer can reach Amen Corner at Augusta within two strokes of the lead, he's going to win. It sounds simple. But it's not.

Golf is hard. Golf betting is even harder. And that brings us back to last week. The early WDs by Ancer ended up voiding a lot of my bets, whether I was betting for or against him. Matthias Schwab beat Rasmus Hojgaard to put that top continental Euro bet in the loss column, but Hojgaard had a decent tournament and still finished in the top 20.

We also lost the quarter unit we bet on Spieth to be the FRL. However, we did hit on our bet for Matsuyama to miss the cut at +330. Plus, we hit on some of the later bets I tweeted out like the Dylan Frittelli top 20, so we are coming in after a mildly profitable weekend.

Here's where we are for the year:

  • Balance Coming Into Week:  +13.42 Units
  • Units Wagered on Valero: 1.75 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings): 1.65 Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +13.32 Units

2022 Masters Tournament: Prop Bets Picks

So I have probably placed at least dozen different bets already. And my guess is I place another dozen more before Thursday morning. But here are some of my favorites so far.

Tyrell Hatton, Top English Player (+380 on FD) - Half Unit

We know that I like the nationality bets and might as well start with that. I put a few down already (hint: I like Cameron Smith) besides this, but Hatton is one of my favorite golfers this week.

This is not an easy bet. Fitzpatrick is the favored for this bet at +270, followed by Hatton, then Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and finally Lee Westwood tipping in at +1000. I would not be surprised to see any of these gentlemen in the top 20. Whomever you choose to win this group bet, you had better be thinking at least a top ten.

But as I said, I like Hatton this week. Hatton is 18th in OWGR (overall world golf ranking) for a reason. He is 7th on the PGA Tour in SG: Total, which is obviously key this week. You can't win the Masters without bringing a complete game to the Masters. And that includes putting obviously. And where is Hatton when it comes to putting? Oh, will you look at that...he's number one on Tour with SG: Putting!

Hatton has five straight top 25s and is coming in rested and ready. I will have tons of exposure to Hatton this week. This will be one of the easier bets I will have on him this week.

Scott Scheffler to Win Betting W/O Dustin Johnson, Jon Rham, Cameron Smith, and Justin Thomas (+1100 on FD) - Quarter Unit

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The "without" bets is another type of bet I love to make. They take away a bunch of the top dogs as if they didn't exist and you start betting from there. So if any of the four "without" options wins or finishes ahead of Scheffler, it doesn't make a difference. I still win. And there is a ton of value in this bet.

How much value? DraftKings has Jon Rham as the favorite to win outright at +900. Right behind Rham and in front of anyone else is Scheffler at +1200 and that includes every golfer.

FanDuel meanwhile is giving us Scheffler at +1100 and we don't have to worry about any of those four popular choices to win it all getting in our way. And recall that Scheffler leads the PGA tour in top 10 finishes and is #1 in the FedEx Cup Standings. Just way too much value to not make this bet!

On a related note to this one, consider this next bet found on DraftKings.

Scottie Scheffler, Dustin Johnson, or Jordan Spieth to Win (+450 on DK) - Half Unit

I've already given you a couple of reasons to grab Scheffler already. Spieth and DJ meanwhile already have a green jacket hanging in their closet and always play well here. Yes, I'm giving up a bit to get the "3 for 1" bet, but I'll take it.

Justin Rose, First Round Leader (+4200 FD, +6000 DK) - Tenth of a Unit

I'm not a big fan of first-round leader bets, but I know that many of you readers are. So here is my top pick for that bet.

Remember when I said any of the Englishmen could finish in the top 20? Well...Justin Rose finished 7th last year, thanks much in part to his first-round leading 65 last year.  Can lightning strike twice? At +6000, I'd be willing to find out.

Cameron Young to Miss the Cut (+160 on DK) - One Unit

Cameron Young is a very good golfer. He is currently 19th in the FedEx Ranking. There is a reason that despite his youth and relative inexperience, he's already played in two US Opens. So he already has Majors experience. I don't think the pressure of the major is what will get to him.

What will however is that Augusta is typically unkind to first-timers.  Maybe he surprises us all. But the easiest holes at ANGC are the four par-fives. You miss out on scoring on those, and you're likely slamming your trunk come Friday evening. And Young is a middling 64th in Par 5 Scoring. I've also already mentioned the importance of putting and Young is a horrendous 174th in three-putt avoidance.

My "golfer to fade" streak is alive and very much crushing it this year. The payout here is lower than it was last week with Matsuyama, but I'm going a full unit on Young to miss the cut.

I got a feeling the streak keeps going.

Round Robin on DraftKings Trio Match-Ups: 4-legger parlay (quarter unit) and trips (quarter units each) - 1.25 Units Total

And here's the "big bet", because if all four legs hit we are looking at over 33 units! I was hoping to list a big Round 1 round robin here or something pretty detailed. However, I will keep it relatively simple given what the sites currently have listed. I'm making a quad and trips round robin with Woodland (+160), Gooch (+185), DJ (+170), and Bubba (+165) all to win their "trio".

Here's the quick rationale for each:

Gary Woodland over Cameron Young and Jason Kokrak

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I've already discussed my concerns with Young. Kokrak is trending in the right direction with a 49th place finish at Augusta after missing the cut in the 2020 edition. But Woodland has a better track record at The Masters than both Young or Kokrak and is playing the best of this trio lately with two top 25s in a row, including a T8 at the Valero last week.

Talor Gooch over Kevin Na and Webb Simpson

Let's keep this simple: Gooch is having a better year than the other two. Gooch is 6th in the FedEx, Na is 133rd, and Simpson is 127th. 'Nuff said.

Dustin Johnson over Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy

This one's even simpler. Augusta is a course where experience counts and yes, Johnson has won The Masters. Neither JT nor Rory has.

Bubba Watson over Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau

Finau fans like myself will point out that he's still 22 in OWGR and the final round 69 on Sunday shows he is out of the slump. And much of the tour would love to have a "slump" like his. But he still has yet to finish in the top ten in 2022 and has three missed cuts in his last six tournaments. Fleetwood meanwhile is even worse than Finau 49th in OWGR. But like Finau, he too has yet to finish in the top 10 in 2022. Watson has been very up (T14 at the Phoenix Open) and down (missed cut at the Valspar) this season. But he loves playing here. He has three top-5 finishes in the last ten years and yeah, two of them are green jackets. At plus odds, I'll gladly roll with Bubba over the other two.

That will do it for the 2022 Masters Tournament Prop Bets Picks for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let's get that green!

Check out Tyler's 2022 Masters Favorites to Fade!

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