So much NFL action this week that F6P brought this grizzled veteran, yours truly, in order to break down this weekend's 2022 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday slate. Hopefully, I perform a lot more like Brock Purdy with the 2022 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings Picks than I do the current version of Tom Brady! Although those of you who read my SNF prop picks know, I do kind of know what I"m talking about, right? RIGHT?!?!?
Anyway, moving on, we got a three-game slate for Saturday. We start with Indy visiting the Vikes, followed by two divisional matchups. The Ravens fly into Cleveland and then in the nightcap, Buffalo hopes to freeze out their divisional rival from Miami.
One thing to be clear about is that most of my picks below are with an eye toward GPPs rather than cash. If you don't understand the differences, feel free to hit me up Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) for an explanation, but given that we are talking about week 15 already, my guess is you do.
So who do I like in the NFL Week 15 Saturday slate on DraftKings? Since you asked, here's my answer.
2022 NFL DFS Week 15 Saturday DraftKings Picks
Matt Ryan - $5200 (@ MIN)
Let's get a couple of things out of the way. First off, I'm pretty much staying away from the Miami and Buffalo passing attacks. The weather forecast does not look promising. If it improves, I will likely pivot to one of those passing attacks. But for now, I'm staying away. And the easy cash pick here is Kirk Cousins. But he's going to be so heavily owned, and I want a little leverage. Enter Matt Ryan.
I know, I know. Ryan looked bad against Dallas. But Dallas makes a lot of QBs look bad. The Vikings defense? Not so much. In the Vikings' last three games they have allowed more than 353 passing yards per game, which is the most in the league. There is obviously risk with Ryan, but I think we see more of a ceiling game from Ryan this week. And we know what the ceiling is: 350+ passing yards and a pair of TDs, maybe three. That's what he did against the Titans in week 4 and the Jags again in week 6.
Ryan is not a good enough quarterback right now to play regardless of matchup, but when he has a plush match-up, I'll take my chances. Throw in the savings we get by selecting Ryan, I'm willing to give him a go.
J.K. Dobbins - $5200 (@ Cle)
WELCOME BACK JK DOBBINS ?
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 11, 2022
Again, I'm trying to save a little money. But I love this pick. Because the Cleveland run defense, simply put, is not good. The Browns are the third-most generous team when it comes to allowing fantasy points to running backs. Dobbins still looks a little gimpy to me. However, in two games against Cleveland in his career, Dobbins has three TDs. I'm willing to bank on him finding the end zone again Saturday.
Michael Pittman Jr. - $5800 (@ MIN)
As I mentioned previously, the Vikings pass defense is not good. They have allowed 545 PPR points to WRs this season, the second most in the league. I expect all Indy pass catchers to be heavily involved in the Colts' game plan. Which is great, because it makes for a nice stacking option with the aforementioned Ryan.
We might as well select the Colts best WR option, Pittman. He leads the team with 76 catches for 755 yards and two touchdowns. He has three games with double-digit targets and I would be surprised if he doesn't add a fourth on Saturday.
Justin Jefferson - $9100 (vs IND)
Justin Jefferson gets the feet down for the TD ?
— NFL (@NFL) December 4, 2022
Yes, I heavily weigh the match-up when considering my DFS options. And the fact that Colts DB Kenny Moore II has been ruled out makes the Indy secondary a little more susceptible. But sometimes the talent far outweighs the match-up. And such is the case with Justin Jefferson, who might be the best WR in the league. There is a reason he's seen double-digit targets the last three weeks and I'd bet on him seeing close to that on Saturday. He has half a dozen TDs on the season already and I suspect he makes it seven before the game is over on Saturday.
Dawson Knox - $3900 (vs MIA)
I suspect I will use my Flex spot and go double-TE in many of my Saturday slate entries. But Knox is definitely one of my favorite plays for Saturday.
And yes, I know I said the weather scares me. And it does. But that means a limit on the long 40-yard bombs. I suspect that Buffalo especially will continue to pass, but on much shorter routes, which plays right into Knox's wheelhouse.
Furthermore, the Dolphins' defense has been atrocious against tight ends. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position this season. Add in the savings we get on Knox and he's a fixture in nearly all of my lineups.
Ravens - $3000 (@ CLE)
I honestly don't get the DST pricing on DraftKings this week. I get the Dolphins and Colts being the bottom two by salary. But in this scribe's humble opinion, I think they got the other four defenses in reverse order. But that's fine by me. I will happily take the defense averaging the second most DKFPs on the slate for the fourth-highest salary.
Because guess what--the weather ain't gonna be too grand in Cleveland this weekend either. And that plays into the Ravens defensive strength of stopping the run versus their weakness of shutting down the pass game. Furthermore, unlike some of the other games on Saturday, this should be a relatively low-scoring game. And we know the Browns are going to want to try to run, but the Ravens are allowing just 81.2 rushing yards per game, the second lowest in the league behind San Fransisco.
Even if we take game forecast out of the equation, I still like the Ravens defense. They have 39 sacks, tied for the fifth most in the league. That gives us a very nice floor. They are also tied for 14 interceptions, the second most in the league. They are also tied for seventh in fumbles recovered. So, let's what we got here. Turnovers? Check. Sacks? Check. Low amount of points? Check. Special Teams touchdown? Hmmm. Oh, look at that, the Ravens are just one of three teams to have a kick return for a TD.
Lock in the Ravens.
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