Greetings, readers. Welcome back to Fantasy Six Pack. If you do not already, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@HermsNFL). This article will look at 2022 NFL Week 2 ThriveFantasy Picks.
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If you've never played on ThriveFantasy before, or you've never played prop bets, it's a pretty simple practice. Users choose to take either the over or under on a certain line (for example, Christian McCaffrey over/under 0.5 touchdowns). Taking the over means you think McCaffrey scores; inversely, taking the under means you believe he will not. Easy as pie.
In this article, I've outlined three solid props to get you started in building your parlays.
2022 NFL Week 2 ThriveFantasy Picks
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Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns - 36.5 Rushing Yards
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In 33 career games with the Browns, Hunt has carried the ball at least ten or more times in 19 of them (or 57.5%); should we remove the half a season he played in 2019 due to suspension, Hunt has surpassed this carries total in 76% of his games with the team.
Since 2020, the Cleveland running back only failed to surpass 36.5 yards twice, and both instances occurred in that same season.
In essence, when Hunt is given the requisite amount of work, he smashes this total easily.
Going up against the New York Jets this week, a team that ranked third-worst in run defense grading per PFF and seventh-worst in Rush DVOA per Football Outsiders in 2021, you can safely take the over on this prop.
While the 63 total yards and three yards per carry by the Baltimore Ravens in this past Sunday's game against the Jets might look good, I wouldn't say that is particularly indicative of how tough the New York run defense is. Remember, the Ravens were still without J.K. Dobbins last week.
The Pick: Over 36.5 rushing yards
Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants - 108.5 Total Yards
Early results would indicate the Giants' offense will largely run through Barkley as it has in the past when healthy. Since 2018, Barkley ranks seventh in targets (267) and 15th in rushing attempts (677) among all running backs per Stathead; these totals are even crazier to consider when factoring in that he has only participated in 68.2% of a possible 66 games played in his career to date.
While the Carolina Panthers maintained a relatively average run defense last season, Week 1 saw a performance from their front that graded second-worst in PFF's run grading and resulted in whopping 217 total rushing yards allowed to the Cleveland Browns.
Much like the Hunt prop, all Barkley seemingly has to do in Sunday's game against Carolina to hit the over is not get hurt.
The volume will assuredly be there given that Barkley's role is fairly game script agnostic with his varied usage as a weapon. This feels like easy money.
The Pick: Over 108.5 total yards
Devin Duvernay, WR, Baltimore Ravens - 30.5 Receiving Yards
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Duvernay concluded Week 1's showdown against the Jets with two touchdowns, one of which went for 25 yards and accounted for nearly half of his 54 total receiving yards for the game. Per 4for4, Duvernay ranked 60th in air yards (47) and held a nearly identical route participation percentage as his teammate Demarcus Robinson (52.9% and 50%, respectively) in the contest in an aerial attack that almost runs exclusively through the WR1 and tight end Mark Andrews as referenced in research I conducted for this article over at FantasyPros in late August.
The repeatability of consistent production from the seemingly part-time WR2 is already schematically limited in the Baltimore offense; going up against PPF's eighth-highest graded defense in terms of pass coverage versus receivers in 2021, I just have a hard time seeing Duvernay returning good on his performance from last week.
The Pick: Under 30.5 receiving yards
Check out our Fantasy Football Week 2 rankings!