2022 PGA DFS: 3M Open FanDuel Picks

by Tyler Marling

Welcome to my 2022 PGA DFS: 3M Open FanDuel picks!

Last week's picks were a hit and a bad day on Saturday cost me a huge payday. Despite the poor Saturday, I still cashed with ease on the backs of Cam Smith, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, and Billy Horschel. The hope is to continue to hand out winners as I've been on a bit of a heater if you ignore my picks for the Genesis Scottish Open, oof.

The field this week is weak; on the heels of a major and with LIV Golf starting to pluck more and more talent from the PGA Tour. Weak fields are always tough to predict in DFS as consistency is usually the main culprit for some of the weaker players on Tour.

This week, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. TPC Twin Cities is a par-71, 7,431-yard track. Last year's champ, Cameron Champ, proved that good tee shots are key here.

I have picked out three key indicators for the 3M Open. First, SG: Off-the-Tee. Secondly, SG: approach. Lastly, I think par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards will be important.

2022 PGA DFS: 3M Open FanDuel Picks

Matthias Schwab - $8,600

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Before we get into the details of this pick, let's keep in mind how weak of a field it is this week. For instance, Matthias Schwab only hits on one of my three key indicators, but I'm still rolling with him at his value price point.

Schwab has had his best season as a touring pro. The 27-year-old has three top-10 finishes this season and has made the cut in 13-of-18 events he's teed it up in. Schwab also has some experience at TPC Twin Cities when he finishes T-32nd in 2020.

I'm going against the grain with this selection in relation to my key indicators for this week. Schwab is currently 174th in SG: Off-the-Tee, where he has lost an average of .290 shots per round on the field. Although he shows better in SG: approach, it's still just an average aspect for him. He currently sits in a tie for 88th picking up a measly .121 shots on the field per round.

Schwab does, however, rank among the elite on Tour in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards thanks to his splendid short game. He currently ranks in a tie for 18th in this statistic, with a scoring average of 4.044.

Michael Thompson - $8,700

I'm going with another pick in Michael Thompson that is against my key indicators this week. However, this pick is based on the fact that Thompson is $8,700 and has performed well here in the past. He won this tournament in 2020 and finished T-39th in 2021.

Thompson is also known to pop up at the top of the leaderboard from time to time, especially with a weaker field. I think he does that this week.

Coming off of his second top-10 of the season last week at the Barracuda Championship, I like Thompson to keep the momentum rolling in Minnesota and compete for another top-10.

Thompson shows poorly in two of three key indicators this week. First, he is just 170th in SG: Off-the-Tee where he loses .278 shots per round on the field. He's also been very poor in the approach game. He currently sits in 161st and has lost .198 shots on the field on average. Thompson shows solidly in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards, however. He is currently 57th with a scoring average of 4.104.

Adam Svensson - $9,700

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Adam Svennson is another guy who is having a solid season and he's currently on a bit of a heater. He has made the cut in seven consecutive tournaments and has finished in the top 25 in four straight, which includes a sixth place finish in his last event, the Barbasol Championship.

Like our first two selections, Svennson doesn't show necessarily well in our three key indicators. However, I think he is a good longshot bet to win this week. Remember, this field is on the weaker side so guys likely won't show well in our key indicators, but a lot will show well compared to other guys in their specific price points. That is the case with Svensson.

Svensson ranks T-105th in SG: Off-the-Tee where he picks up a measly .012 shots on the field per round. His best showing out of our key indicators this week is SG: Approach the green. He currently sits in a tie for 46th, picking up .384 shots per round on the field. Svensson's worst showing is in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards. He is currently T-146th with a scoring average of 4.170.


Brendan Steele - $10,000

The biggest reason I'm selecting Brendan Steele is due to the fact that he is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on the entire PGA Tour. He's also playing as solid as anyone on the PGA Tour at the moment.

After a horrid start to the 2022 year where he missed five consecutive cuts, Steele has turned it around. He has made eight straight cuts and has three top-10 finishes in that stretch. I really like Steele this week to compete for a win.

Unlike our first three picks, Steele actually shows solidly in our three key indicators. He is an elite driver of the golf ball and ranks fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, where he picks up .776 strokes on the field per round.

His approach game is also solid. Steele currently ranks 58th in SG: approach the green. He picks up .293 shots per round on the field.

Lastly, Steele is comfortably inside the top 100 in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards, ranking in a tie for 73rd. He has a scoring average of 4.116.

Steele's bugaboo, typically, is his putter. If he putts it average this week, he has a good shot to win.

Cameron Davis - $10,900

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Another guy I like as a potential winner this week is Cameron Davis. Davis doesn't do any one thing great. He's solid in most areas of the game. He's also on a bit of a hot streak at the moment. In weaker fields, I often like to find guys who are in good form and ride that a bit. Davis certainly fits that criteria as he made eight out of nine cuts and has four top 10s in that stretch.

Davis also has had success in this tournament. He finished T-12th in 2020 and T-28th last season. I think he cracks the top 10 this week, which would be his third consecutive tournament finishing in the top 10.

When looking at the key indicators this week, Davis shows just OK. He is currently 71st in SG: Off-the-Tee, picking up .156 shots per round on the field. He is 72nd in SG: Approach the green, where he picks up .215 shots per round on the field.

His worst showing, by far, of my key indicators, is in par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards. He currently ranks T-174th with a scoring average of 4.198. If he can play the long par 4s well this week, he will be in contention.

Tony Finau - $12,000

I'm going with the top-priced player on FanDuel, Tony Finau, with my final pick. I was on the fence with Finau and Hideki Matsuyama here, but Finau's recent form and driving numbers swayed me towards him. Finau started off pretty slow this season but has kicked it into gear as the year has progressed. Since missing the cut at THE PLAYERS Championship, Finau has made nine of 10 cuts and has finished in the top five three times in that stretch.

He's also had some success in this tournament. He finished T-3rd in 2020 and T-28th last season.

Finau also shows better, overall, than Matsuyama in my three key indicators. He is currently 21st in SG: Off-the-Tee compared to 66th for Matsuyama. Finau is picking up, on average, 1.148 for the tournament on Matsuyama in this statistic.

Matsuyama does show slightly better in SG: Approach the green, however. He is currently third compared to 17th for Finau. Being ranked the 17th is still among the Tour's elite players in this category.

The big difference in my key indicators between these two players comes by way of par 4 efficiency from 450-500 yards. Finau currently ranks 15th in this category, while Matsuyama is all the way down in 102nd.


This will be a fun one to track this week, but numbers and recent form say the pick should be Finau.


Check our Mark's 3M Open Prop Bets PIcks!

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