Welcome to the 2022 PGA DFS: John Deere Classic FanDuel Picks article here at F6P!
I was so close to having a monster week for the Travelers Championship. Despite two picks missing the cut, I still won three times my entry fee thanks to picking the winner, Xander Schauffele. I also got insane value out of Kevin Kisner after he finished T-6th, a T-8th from Brian Harman, and despite an implosion on Sunday, a T-13th from Patrick Cantlay.
This week's 2022 PGA DFS: John Deere Classic FanDuel picks won't feature any picks with the name recognition of those four guys. Because, well, the field is probably the worst we'll see all year.
The John Deere Classic gets hosed with when the tournament is actually held. The Open is typically the week after the John Deere Classic and the winner of the JDC is given a spot in The Open.
Well, this year, The Open is two weeks after the JDC, and the Scottish Open is now a co-sanctioned event for the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour.
It makes perfect sense for the big-name guys who have already earned their spots in The Open to use this week as a travel week to prepare for the Scottish Open next week to get a week of links golf under their belts before The Open.
Now that Daniel Berger has withdrawn, the top names left in the field are Webb Simpson, Adam Hadwin, Brendan Todd, Jason Day, and last year's JDC champion Lucas Glover.
Needless to say, my 2022 PGA DFS: John Deere Classic FanDuel picks are going to be a crap-shoot.
2022 PGA DFS: John Deere Classic FanDuel Picks
Course and Key Indicators
The John Deere Classic will take place at TPC Deere Run, a 7,268 yard, par-71 layout. TPC Deere Run features eight holes measuring in the 350-450 yard range, meaning birdies will be there for the taking.
It also means players will be in closer proximity to the hole this week, having shorter approach shots.
With this being such a weak field, I'm going a little off the cuff on my key indicators for this week. The first one I'm looking at is birdie average. I think there will be a lot of birdies and of the last seven winners of this event, -18 was the worst winning score.
Next up will be birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards as I think a lot of approach shots will come from this range this week.
Lastly, I'm going with total one-putts from five-to-ten feet. I think whoever putts it best inside ten feet has a chance to win this week.
Matthias Schwab - $8,500
For my first, and cheapest pick, I'm going with Matthias Schwab. Schwab has had a solid PGA Tour season up to this point as he's made 12 out of 16 cuts and has an SG: total ranking of 69th.
Of those 12 made cuts, Schwab has finished inside the top-10 three times with two T-7th finishes and a T-8th finish.
Schwab shows pretty well in our three key indicators, especially when you take into consideration the depth of the field this week. Most of the guys ranked in front of him aren't teeing it up in Illinois for the JDC.
He currently sits in a tie for 122nd in birdie average, making 3.61 birdies per round.
He is elite at making birdie or better from 125 to 150 yards, currently ranking 13th, converting nearly a quarter of the time at 24.82%. His showing in this key indicator is the main reason I'm selecting him this week, especially at just $8,500.
Lastly, he shows around average in one putts from five-to-ten feet, currently ranking T-105th.
Nate Lashley - $8,900
Next up is a guy who would get consideration this week in a strong field based on where he sits in our key indicators, especially considering he would be even cheaper in a strong field.
Nate Lashley has had a decent 2022 season, although it's kind of feast or famine with him. He's made the cut in just over half of the events he's played in, 12 out of 22. However, he's only finished outside of the top 30 twice in events where he's made the cut and has seven top-20 finishes.
The former Arizona Wildcat shows extremely well in our key indicators. He is currently 24th in birdie average, making 4.06 birdies per round.
He's also among the PGA Tour's best in birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards. Lashley currently ranks 28th, converting 22.08% of the time.
Lastly, he's close to ranking in the top quarter of the PGA Tour in one-putts from five-to-ten feet, ranking in a tie for 53rd. If I've nailed my key indicators for this week, Nate Lashley looks like a pick-to-click.
Lanto Griffin - $9,400
Next up is another guy like Lashley that I may have selected this week even in a strong field. Lanto Griffin has been rock solid this year. He's made the cut 16 out of 22 attempts. Although he's missed the cut in his last two events, I expect him to make the cut this week.
Griffin has six top 20 finishes this season, with four of those being top-tens.
His rankings in my key indicators for the week also match up well. Griffin currently sits in a tie for 4th in birdie average, making 3.87 per round.
His worst ranking this week of our criteria is his birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards, where he currently ranks 76th. He's cashing in on those opportunities 19.19% of the time.
Lastly, Griffin shows elite in one-putts from five-to-ten feet, ranking T-9th. I like Griffin to threaten for a top-ten this week.
Charles Howell III - $10,800
As I start to ascend into higher salary selections, I'm going the steady route again with Charles Howell III. While CH3 is only 181st in the official world golf rankings, he routinely seems to make cuts to finish in the top 40. Now, in a weak field, I expect him to contend for a top-ten finish this week.
While Howell has only teed it up in 15 events this season, he has made the cut ten times. He has finished in the top 20, four times, including two top-ten finishes.
Howell shows well in my three key indicators this week. He makes quite a few birdies on a round-by-round basis. He currently ranks in a tie for 20th in this statistic, making 4.08 per round.
His 63rd ranked position in birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards was better entering last week, where he ranked T-32nd before the Travelers Championship. He has converted 19.86% of his chances from this range.
The one shaky area this week for Howell is in my last key indicator. He is in a tie for 126th in one-putts from five-to-ten feet. He will need a hot putter this week to have a chance at winning, although I still see a top-ten finish for Howell.
Maverick McNealy - $11,100
Maverick McNealy is in the midst of a breakout season. He has made the cut in 15 of the 18 tournaments he's teed it up in and has two top tens, and five top 20s. McNealy is also a very impressive 46th in SG: Total for the season.
Just based on the year the OWGR's 86th-ranked player is having, I'd consider betting him for the win this week. Then when you look at his standing in my key indicators for this week, it further strengthens that bet.
Like Howell, McNealy is T-20th in birdie average, at 4.08 per round, making him among the PGA Tour's elite in this category.
He shows pretty poorly in birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards, ranking T-147th. He will need to be better here to win this week.
McNealy also shows very well in one-putts from five-to-ten feet. The former Standford Cardinal is T-31st in this category. Again, better short iron and wedge play will be key for McNealy this week, but I think he has a strong case to win at TPC Deere Run.
Denny McCarthy - $11,200
No disrespect to Denny McCarthy is meant by this, but when he's your top dog for the week, you know it's a weak field.
Make no mistake about it, however, McCarthy is a solid player and is having an excellent year, however, he is just 93rd in the OWGR. In a typical field, McCarthy is typically your cheapest or second cheapest option.
Having said all of that, I like McCarthy to also compete for a win this week. He shows well in my key indicators and has been a solid performer all season long. Coming into this week, McCarthy has made the cut 19 times in 23 tries, a really respectable percentage.
He also has three top 10s, including a T-5th at the Memorial Tournament and a T-7th at the U.S. Open.
McCarthy's worst showing in my key indicators for the week is in birdie average. He is just T-122nd in this category, making 3.61 birdies per round on average.
However, get McCarthy in the 125 to 150-yard range, and he's converting those chances into birdies more often than nearly everyone on the PGA Tour. He is currently 12th in birdie or better percentage from 125-150 yards, converting 25.48% of the time.
Needing a one-putt from five-to-ten feet? Denny McCarthy is THE guy. He currently ranks first in this category. I look for McCarthy's birdie average per round to go up as this course has a lot of short approach shot opportunities. He can lean on his elite wedge, short iron, and close-range putting to carry him into contention in Illinois this week.
Check out Mark's John Deere Classic Prop Bets!