Another winner in the books with the Tom Hoge selection last week. I also replaced Daniel Berger, who withdrew, with Jordan Spieth, who finished second.
Two issues kept my lineup from simply winning (which I did), to winning big. First, Chez Reavie had a bad week but looked to be making a charge on Saturday before fading outside the cut.
Secondly, Matthew NeSmith completely imploded on the back nine on Saturday. He was hovering between 20th and 40th for the first 45 holes before missing the cut.
This week's 2022 PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open FanDuel Picks will look to turn our luck around and we will be focusing on the ball striking stat. Typically, at this event, top finishers are near the top of the board in ball striking for the week.
I'm going to be supplementing the ball striking stat with strokes gained: putting. Putting is simply the best indicator for success on the PGA Tour.
Make sure you check out Mark's Waste Management Phoenix Open Prop Bets Picks!
2022 PGA DFS: Waste Management Phoenix Open FanDuel Picks
Lucas Glover - $8,200
I'm nervous about Lucas Glover's putting, as he checks in at 202nd and his lack of recent success at this tournament. He finished T58th last season and didn't play the season before.
However, it's hard to turn down the seventh-best ball-striker, to this point, on tour for $8,200.
Glover is coming off a missed cut at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and only has one top-20 finish this season, when he finished T5th at the Sony Open.
The hope here is that my key indicator for the week, ball striking, propels Glover to a good week. Combine that with a gut feeling that he plays well this week and he feels like a must-pick at his price point.
Kevin Kisner - $9,400
Although Kevin Kisner hasn't played in this event in either of the last two seasons, his ball-striking and putting counter that. Kisner is currently sitting 17th in ball striking this season and 24th in putting. Which, believe it or not, is disappointing for him.
Another side piece to this pick is that Kisner has become one of the most likable players on tour so he's easy to root for. He is very down to Earth in his interviews and he feels like "one of us" on a golf course when he has a giant chaw in his cheek.
I love @K_Kisner.
— Gunnar Davis (@Gunnar57Davis) January 13, 2021
Gems like the one above are what make him so relatable, he's honest and straightforward. How can you not root for him?
Billy Horschel - $9,600
The price tag on steady Billy Horschel could lead to a potentially great value pick. Horschel has only played in five events in the 2022 season but has made all five cuts, has a runner-up, and a T11th on the season.
The key indicators that I'm looking towards for this week also back up the Horschel pick. He is 40th in ball striking and a fantastic 10th in putting.
Horschel also has some recent success in this event. He has made the cut in each of the last two seasons and finished T53rd last season and T9th in 2020. I like Horschel this week to finish in the top-20 so it may be a good prop bet to look at.
Russell Henley - $9,900
I am basing the Russell Henley pick solely off of his form this season and his ball-striking. His putting is average, sitting at T88th. His recent performance in this event has been less than stellar with a missed cut in 2020 and T30th last season.
However, Henley's ball-striking is 11th and his form this season has been impeccable. He has made the cut in all seven tournaments he's entered, and had the following finishes:
Since his missed cut in this event in 2020, Henley's game has improved drastically. His ball-striking matches up perfectly with this golf course and I think he could be a good top-10 prop bet.
Sam Burns - $10,800
I debated heavily on this spot between Webb Simpson and Sam Burns but ultimately fell on Burns because this season's statistics back him up over Simpson.
Burns missed the cut in 2020, but like Henley, his game has improved leaps and bounds since. Last season, he finished T22nd. This season, he is off to the best start of his career.
Although he hasn't rolled it great this season, checking in at 93rd, his ball-striking has been splendid, checking in at sixth.
Burns did miss the cut in the last event he played in but prior to that, his finishes were almost unrealistic:
I like Burns as a potential winner this season and to see him continuing his upward trend in the official world golf rankings where he currently sits 14th.
Jon Rahm - $12,100
I'm going from the 14th ranked player in the world to the number one-ranked player in the world for my final pick. Jon Rahm, the former Arizona State Sun Devil, is returning back to his roots, in a tournament that he has played extremely well in, but hasn't raised the hardware in yet.
Last season, Rahm, finished T13th and he was T9th the season prior.
Rahm also doesn't have a weakness in his game, he is elite in every aspect, and it is why he has vaulted to number one in the world. He is 22nd in putting and third in ball-striking. Odds make it tough to bet Rahm but I am really high on him winning this week.
The tournament environment also suits Rahm as he is a fireball of emotion and will feed off of the rowdy crowd in Phoenix.