The PGA Florida swing continues with a stop off at “Arnie’s tourney”. One bet I’m willing to bet the house on is that we will not have a repeat champion this upcoming weekend at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Although I will likely have no one to field that bet as last year’s winner Bryson DeChambeau has withdrawn due to injuries to his hand. However, before we get into my actual Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets, let’s take a look at where I stand on the season.
Despite not hitting on Straka last week, I came out with a big week again:
- Balance Coming Into Week: +6.71 Units
- Units Wagered Last Week: 3.75 Units
- Units Won Last Week (gross winnings): 15.91 Units [hitting both trips and quads of my 5 leg round-robin] resulting in a 12.16 units profit
- Net Profit YTD: +18.87 Units
Again, that’s far better than I expected it to be at this point. Maybe I underestimated my ability. But either way, if you’ve been tailing me, you have to be happy with the results so far!
Let’s see if I can keep it going with my 2022 PGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets recommendations.
2022 PGA Tour: Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+5500) to win and Will Zalatoris (+2900) to win each at .1 Units
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 15, 2021
What we have here is two long-shot winners who have had some success at the API. And I can’t ignore the potential value. Zalatoris is currently 30th in OWGR (overall world golf ranking). He is number one on tour in SG: Tee to Green, which has helped lead to finishes of T26, 2, and T6 this calendar year, along with three other top 15 finishes this season before the calendar flipped. And he had a T10 here last year.
Bezuidenhout’s odds are nearly double, but he might be an even better value. He finished 7th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year. Yet, he is playing even better golf now than he was last year at this time. He cracked the Top 25 last week at the Honda Classic, which was his fourth Top-25 finish this season already. I actually think he might fall short again, but he opened last year with three straight rounds of 70.
If he does that again, take the cash-out offer for a profit. I don’t like the value of him finishing say top 20 at +260, but if you decide to bet the top 5 or top 10, let it ride as I think he can definitely do that. However, I do generally like Bezuidenhout this week. My favorite nationality bet is Bezuidenhout as the top South African Player at +200.
But if even that is too aggressive for you, let me give you something a little more conservative…
Erik Van Rooyen Top 40 +135 – One Unit
Embed from Getty Images
Van Rooyen, or “EVR” as so often ascribed, is one of the better younger talents on the European Tour. Don’t let his barbershop quartet mustache distract you from the fact we are getting plus odds for a player of tremendous talent. We have to go back to October 10th to find a cut he failed to make anywhere. He is having one of his better years overseas, but he’s had a number of strong performances here on the PGA tour as well. EVR has finished in the top 40 in all three of his PGA tournaments this year, including two Top 25 finishes.
Van Rooyen made the cut at Bay Hill last year as well. The South African should easily make the cut again here this week. And if he plays even close to how he did at the Emirates Golf Club when he snagged a fourth place at the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic he should easily payout on this.
With a couple of long shots to win it and a top 40 bet, I have sort of ignored that “middle” of the board come Sunday. Allow me to rectify that.
Paul Casey, Marc Leishman, Tyrrel Hatton, and Matthew Fitzpatrick all Top 20 finish +4400 – Quarter Unit
I could easily see the chalk (Jon Rham or Rory McIlroy) running away with this tourney. I could also see them and some of the other popular options being complete non-factors. Bottom line, I’m more nervous about this tournament than the Will E. Coyote on the edge of a cliff. So I’m keeping my weekly article recommendations to less than two units total this week.
And despite winning off of my round robins two weeks in a row, I’m not pushing my luck. But I wanted to let you know about some golfers I like this week to do well who are in the middle tier. And that’s when I saw this very aggressive but very attractive FanDuel special bet. This bet likely won’t hit, but I do like each one of these four golfers to finish in the top 20, so I’m willing to place a small wager at 44 to 1 that I’m right on all four.
Let’s start with Leishman, who my fellow F6P golf compadre Tyler Marling and I both really like. Tyler already made a strong case for Leishman in his weekly FanDuel picks column. With so little for me to add to that, let’s move on to Paul Casey. Casey has over 15 tournament wins on his resume already but continues to play quality golf at age 44. He most recently finished T15 at the Genesis during the recent West Coast swing but he also had a T10 at the API last year.
Hatton meanwhile has yet to play in a PGA tournament in 2022. But he’s coming off three straight top tens overseas and is one of the better iron players in the world. He’s 23 in the OWGR and I like his chances to improve on that ranking this week. He did after all win this tournament two years ago.
Tyrell Hatton wins the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
And he did it in "Larry Bird walking off while the ball is in the air during his last shot at the 1988 3-point shooting contest" style.pic.twitter.com/BI8pw4M41E
— Nitrogen Sports (@NitrogenSports) March 8, 2020
That leaves us with Fitzpatrick who withdrew from the Genesis a few weeks ago and hasn’t played since. However, he was playing some phenomenal golf up to that point. That includes two top-ten finishes in the two PGA tournaments he’s played in 2022. He is a great statistical fit for this course. The weakest part of his game might be his driving distance, but he is one of the more accurate golfers on tour. He is 2nd on tour in SG: Total and assuming he’s 100% healthy I like him to finish in the top 20 easily.
That will do it for the Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let’s get that green!
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