2022 PGA Tour: BMW Championship Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2022 BMW Championship DFS Picks

Here is a tissue to wipe your eyes as the 2022 PGA Tour BMW Championship Picks will likely be my last PGA article of the season. I will definitely tweet out a little next week for East Lake. But, alas, all good things must come to an end.

I love putting together PGA DFS lineups and various PGA prop bets. But my first love is football and I fear that my mind, whether I want it to or not, has already transitioned over to that sport. My top 5/top 10/top 20 bet came awfully close to hitting. And that might be the best we can say about last week. I'm also investing my usual share of funds this week on PGA lineups/bets. But, unfortunately, I'm feeling no more confident than I did last week.

However, I've still had decent weeks when my confidence was low. Therefore, tail/ignore my picks at your risk. Like last week, we will combine the DFS picks and the prop bet picks into one article.

The Tour heads to Wilmington, DE for the BMW Championship week. I didn't even realize that until about a week ago. It's kind of surprising given I live just a few hours from there. My amazing and beautiful wife went to the University of Deleware, so I proposed we head there this weekend and she could decide if she wanted to join me or not at the Wilmington Country Club.

Let's just say the proposal went over like a stone balloon. Ironically, that's one of the names of the bars she used to go to at UD! But that's a whole other story. And I should add it wasn't for lack of interest on her part. Her arguments of both time and money were hard to overcome, especially the former!

Given the shortage of time in my life, let's move quickly to my suggestions for the 2022 PGA Tour: BMW Championship Picks.

2022 PGA Tour: BMW Championship Picks and Players I Like This Week

We were so close last week to our Top 5/Top 10/Top 20 pick, that I want to try it again, so let's start there.

Rory McIlroy ($10500 DK, $11800 FD) Top 5 finish; Jon Rham ($10300 DK, $11400 FD) Top 10 finish; & Justin Thomas ($10100 DK, $11200 FD) Top 20 finish; (+1200)

This one is little more conservative than last week's bet which was +3200, but I'm willing to go a quarter of a unit on it. I will also have at least one share of each of these players in my DFS lineups. I think each of one of them has a decent shot to win this week, but let's break it down piece by piece.

Rory McIlroy

It seems almost silly to discuss McIlroy who is currently the third best golfer in the world according to the OWGR (Overall World Golf Ranking). But a missed cut last week might scare a few away. Don't be one of those few. McIlroy is fifth in shots gained off the tee, on the strength of being second in distance off the tee. He's also 21st in GIR and 11th in SG: Putting, which might explain why he is 5th in birdie average and second in shots gained total. No way I'm fading Rory this week.

Jon Rham

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Meanwhile, I'd like to extend a hearty welcome back to Jon Rham as he notched his first top ten last week since the Memorial. I don't think he will win this week, even though he does have a BMW Championship victory under his belt already. But he always seems to play strong at this tournament. In addition to his win in 2020, he also has a T-9 here last year. He also finished T-5 in 2019 and 2017. And we just need him to finish in the top ten for this bet. Lock and load.

Justin Thomas

And that brings us to Justin Thomas. He could have definitely played a little crisper last week, but he did gain strokes in each of the key non-putting stats. Of particular note was his driver that helped him pick up three shots and could be very useful on this course this week. He is also the only golfer with top ten rankings in both scrambling metrics and weighted tee-to-green. It almost doesn't even matter as he is seventh in OWGR and is always a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. Also, this course will look different than it did when JT competed in the Palmer Cup back in 2013, but I do like that Thomas probably has more familiarity with it than anyone else in the field. A top 20 finish should be coming easily.

But wait, we're not done with these three-leg parlays and here's a more aggressive one I like even more, but also reflects more of my DFS picks this week:

Tony Finau ($9700 DK, $11000 FD) Top 5 finish; Sam Burns ($9300 DK, $10500 FD) Top 10 finish; & Cameron Young ($8900 DK, $10400 FD) Top 20 finish; (+2400)

This one is a little aggressive, so I'm going to bet just a fifth of a unit on this one. Again, we'll break it down. And let's start with one of my favorites, Tony Finau.

Besides his charming personality, Finau has definitely taken his game to the next level. He did not even the ball too well last week and still finished in the top five. He has now finished inside the top five in four of his past eight starts. Let's just say that is pretty good. Over Finau's past 48 rounds, he ranks atop this field in SG: Tee-to-Green and third on approach. Furthermore, he's number one on the PGA Tour right now in bogey avoidance. Finally, I will remind you that this tourney moves around a lot, but his worst BMW finish in the last five years was T-15. His other four are top tens, including two top fives. Finau has a warm heart, but his play right now is absolutely ablaze.

There is a bad segue pun to be made here with Sam and his surname, but I'll pass on that. But don't pass on Burns as he is 7th in Birdie or Better percentage. After a nice start to the season, he struggled much of the summer. However, Burns seems to be rebounding just in time as he finished with a T-20 at Southwind last week. He did so by gaining over four strokes with his irons.  Even more enticing is that with a return to bentgrass this week, we like Burns even more. Burns has four top 5s in his last 13 events on bentgrass greens, including a win at Colonial earlier this year. He's currently fourth in the FedEx Rankings, he finished 8th here last year. Fire up Burns. (haha)
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And we wrap it up with your likely ROY winner. Young has been sensational during his rookie campaign but has really turned it up a notch lately. In his last nine tourneys played, he has three seconds (two were T-2s) and two-thirds (one was a T-3). He gained nine strokes ball-striking last week but unfortunately ruined that by losing 5.5 strokes on the greens. He's second in shots gained off tee and 13th in shots gained tee to green. If he can simply stay even with the field once he's on the green, he is currently 13th in the FedEx Rankings, he should definitely finish in the top 20 this week and punch his ticket to East Lake.

Denny McCarthy (DK $7000 FD $8100): Top 30 Finish (+135)

Willing to put a unit down on this one. McCarthy is sometimes a danger to miss the cut. He's missed three of his last seven starts. However, there's no cut this week, making him a very strong play given that in those other four he has four top 20s, including three top tens. I wouldn't fault you for betting him to finish in the top 20 obviously, but I'm going to hedge a little bit. He currently sits 35th in the FedEx Rankings, so a Top 30 seems like a smarter bet. However, he's third on Tour in SG: Putting. And having grown up in nearby Maryland, I think he will feel very comfortable on these bentgrass greens. This might be the smartest bet I'm making this week.

Cam Davis +175 (DK $7600 FD $8900) and Lucas Glover (DK $6100 FD $7300) +360 (330 on DK) Top 20 Half Unit on Each and Quarter Unit on Combined on FD (+1165)

I like each of these two to round out my DFS entries. Let's start with Davis, who has been on fire lately. He has recorded five consecutive finishes in the top 16 or better, including a duo of top-10s. He is a very strong fifth in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green. All reports are that Wilmington Country Club will favor power, which suits Davis just fine. However, he's been a bit of a sharp-shooter of the tee lately as well, currently 22nd in driving accuracy in this field and 19th in greens-in-regulation.

This tourney could turn into a birdie fest, which also fits Davis as well as he currently sits 26th in Birdie or Better. Given his cheap DFS price and plus odds to finish in the Top 20, I definitely like him this week. I like Glover a little less, but he too has good value.

Lucas Glover

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Glover is peaking at just the right time. He came into last week ranked 121st and jumped all the way to 34th. Wilmington CC is a good match for his game, led by 11th on Tour in Driving Accuracy and 31st in Greens in Regulation. He has two Top-20s in the BMW the last five years, including a T-12 and a T-7. I put him right around 50/50 to finish in the Top 20, so at better than three to one odds, this is a very attractive bet.

We probably need one more mid to lower-salary play. So let's make it a bit of a lottery ticket play and go with....

First Round Leader: Aaron Wise (DK $8100 FD$9000) +4500 (DK) and then +850 Top 5 finish First Round

So I almost went Trey Mullinax (+8000 DK) and KH Lee (+8500 on FD, +8000 on DK) here as I love both as relative long shots this week. But I couldn't resist Wise. I love the fact that Wise is in the top 25 in Stroke Differential Average, but an even better 6th in First Round Average! And one of the few names ahead of Wise is Cameron Smith, whom we know won't be playing this week.

Wise is a bit of a long shot to be your FRL, but I definitely like him this week. For one, three of the four par 3s this week are longer than 200 yards. And Wise is 2nd in Par 3s over 200 yards. Most of his other stats might not be as sparkling as that, but they're all far better than average. He is 28th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 23rd in SG: Approach, 40th in scrambling, and 23rd in birdie average. Those are some nice stats for a "long shot".

That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: BMW Championship Picks. Follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) to see what other bets or DFS plays I might be contemplating. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!


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