You think last week's Waste Management Pheonix Open had a talented field, wait until you check out this week's Genesis Invitational! Therefore, I'm more inclined to make even more 2022 PGA Tour: Genesis Invitational Prop Bets this week. Upping the total bets does make me a little nervous. But admittedly, I was a little nervous last week too.
Speaking of last week, we did get off to a good start. I did shank it on my two suggested aggressive picks, costing us three-quarters of a unit. However, I did hit on Adam Scott to be the top Australian at +170. That brought back 2.7 units total, for a total profit of 1.95 units. Not too shabby!
Perhaps feeling a little emboldened, I am definitely going more aggressive this week. If you want something conservative, take Jon Rham as the top Spanish player. All he has to do is beat out Sergio Garcia. But there is nothing conservative this week that strikes me as a decent play. However, I'll give you at least four different bets this week instead of the three I gave you last week. I'll leave it up to you if you want to bet all of them.
But do recall this is an extremely deep field. There are plenty of "aggressive" bets you can make with the top tier of golfers. This is not the week to bet longshots to win outright. If I could bet against the winner of the tournament coming from outside the OWGR Top 100 I would. It's your money, bet how you wish. But you'll see that all my recommendations are either elite golfer bets or lesser golfer bets to do better than expected.
With that out of the way, let's tee up my 2022 PGA Tour: Genesis Invitational Prop Bets recommendations, starting with one of the most inconsistent golfers around, Kevin Na.
2022 PGA Tour: Genesis Invitational Prop Bets
Kevin Na to finish Top 10 +500 - Half Unit
Usually, when my friends ask me about betting or playing Kevin Na in DFS, my response is some sort of juvenile extension of "Nah on Na". It's not that I don't think he is a good golfer. The issue with Na is that the only thing we can depend on is his inconsistency. He will sandwich a win between two vicious missed cuts. That can be absolutely maddening. So take this recommendation within that context.
But I feel like I'm in a good place with Na this week. I know he could disappoint me. And that's why I'm refusing to bet him to win. But I feel like he has top ten potential this week. And that potential is based upon a stat Na is actually quite consistent in: Shots Gained Around the Green. He finished number one on Tour in that stat last season and is off to a good start again this year. According to DataGolf, that stat alone factored more than 20% into the scores last year. He's also currently 9th in Driving Accuracy, another key statistic given the penal rough and number of sharp doglegs that Riviera features.
Furthermore, Na has four Top 10s at Riviera, including a T2 in 2018. He's going under the radar this week and I think he can have a big week. I just can't pick him to win, but I might bet him to be in the top five later in the week and I'll gladly bet him to be in the top 10 now.
Patrick Cantlay First Round Leader +2000 - Half Unit
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Any FRL bet, especially in a field this deep, is an aggressive bet. Therefore, it is why I am wagering just half a unit. But 20 to 1 on a bet that I feel like has far more than a 5% chance of hitting is a bet I'm willing to make. Why do I think this has a better than 5% chance of hitting? Well, it might have something to do with the fact that Cantlay has shot an opening round of 68 or better each of the four years here at the Genesis, including a first-round leading 66 in 2018!
Don't get too confident with this bet as we all know past results are not a guarantee of future events. But we are getting incredible value and it is not one I would fade.
Round Robin of pairs (.1 Units x 6), trips (.1 Units x 4), and 4-legger (.2 Units) Will Zalatoris Group D; Viktor Hovland Group C; Colin Morikawa Group B, Patrick Cantalay Group A (payout of > +45000 on FanDuel) - 1.2 Units
If you haven't done Round Robins before or made a Group prop parlay the above probably looks like hieroglyphics to you at best. But I'll try to explain this to you. All the betting sites do this, but FanDuel has put most of the golfers into "Groups" or clusters of four. Within each group, I'm picking the golfer whom finishes the highest of those.
For example, I am picking Will Zalatoris at odds of +240 to beat out the other three members in his group which include Cameron Smith, Sam Burns, and Sungjae Im. And I am picking the "winner" of four different groups, each at various odds. However, by doing pairs, trips, and the quad in a RR, I am raising the floor of my bet. So if I only pick two winners, I will still get money back and in this, but in this particular case a small profit. If I pick three, I will win even more. And if I get all four right, I'll see a payout of over 45x my bet.
Make sense?
So many reasons I like Cantlay this week. They include his previous success here, playing extremely well right now, and his local ties. Morikawa is one of the most precise golfers on tour and he's a great fit for Riviera. Hovland got tripped up last week, but I think he rebounds this week and can definitely score higher than Scott Scheffler (a letdown is inevitable, right?), Brooks Koepka, and Hideki Matsuyama. Willy Z is coming in rested and finished 15th here last year, but is playing even better now, having three top 10s in each of his last tournaments.
As long as you understand what this bet entails, make the bet.
Bubba Watson, Russell Henley, or Tony Finau to Win +1600 - Quarter Unit
So one of my favorite bets to make every week is the "Triple Chances to Win". And in any given week, you are better off betting each one individually. But this is a way to get three underdogs for the price of one, and still have a decent payout. As I mentioned, this is not a week to bet the longshots and/or expect a first-time winner to break through. This is about the tier of golfers I'm willing to drop down to bet to win. For one, all three of these golfers have won on tour.
Watson has not just won but also won a major. He's got the talent and seems to be having a bounceback season so far. And I know I buried the lead, but he also has won three times here. Finau also has played well on this course, having shot a final round 64 last year to force a playoff. He lost that playoff to Max Homa last year, but Finau will win another tourney this year and why not a place where he finished in 2nd? Henley meanwhile not only has made the cut here each of the last three years but is having one of his best seasons yet. He is currently third in scoring average and it shouldn't be a surprise to see him on the first page of the leaderboard to start Sunday.
That will do it for the 2022 Genesis Invitational Prop Bets for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let's get that green!
Check out Tyler's Genesis Invitational FanDuel Picks!
