A number of golfers are taking this week off as the 2022 PGA Tour hits the Florida swing. However, a more average field doesn’t make betting any easier. And that brings us to our 2022 PGA Tour: Honda Classic Prop Bets.
I feel like I can improve on getting the winner this week. I’ll admit it – I totally missed out on Joaquin Niemann last week.
Despite not hitting on Nieman, I’m still doing pretty well. Let’s take a quick look:
- Balance Coming Into Week: +1.95 Units
- Units Wagered Last Week: 2.45 Units
- Units Won Last Week (gross winnings): 7.21 Units [hitting three legs out of four on our 4 leg round-robin]
- Net Profit YTD: +6.71 Units
That’s pretty good. Not amazing, but at least 20% greater than I had originally figured to be at this point.
With the math out of the way, let’s get down to figuring out some winning 2022 PGA Tour: Honda Classic Prop Bets recommendations.
2022 PGA Tour: Honda Classic Prop Bets
Round Robin of trips (.1 Units x 10), quads (.1 Units x 5), and 5-legger (.25 Units) Daniel Berger (Group A), Keith Mitchell (Group B), Tommy Fleetwood (Group C), Shane Lowry (Group D), Jhonattan Vegas (Group E) (payout of > +18000 on FanDuel) – 1.75 Units
A hit on a round-robin saved us last week and gave us a nice little profit, so might as well go for it again! You can check out last week for an explanation of what a round-robin is. Or hit me up on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) for an additional explanation if necessary. But I love this bet as it includes nearly every golfer I like this week for one reason or another.
Berger was born in Florida and attended Florida State, so it should be little surprise he’s played well here, having captured two Top-5s here already. Keith Mitchell is a UGA Bulldog and doesn’t have the local connections that Berger has. But I like the value on Mitchell even more than Berger this week.
Keith Mitchell needed a birdie on the last hole to win the Honda Classic …
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 (@sportingnews) March 3, 2019
Mitchell won here back in 2019 but is playing even better golf now this year. He’s notched three top-dozen finishes in four of 2022 appearances. Furthermore, in this field, he’s first in SG: Ball Striking over the last 12 rounds. Shane Lowry however is making his first appearance on this side of the Atlantic this year with his entrance into the Honda Classic. But he has two top-25s already overseas and often excels on difficult courses like this one. He’s a little under the radar, but I’ll gladly take a chance on him this week.
And if you’re gonna take a chance, why not finish up with the money man, Jhonny V. Perhaps it is the Bermuda greens, which he does seem to have an affinity for, having gained nearly .22 strokes a round versus all others. Whatever it is, he’s played this event nine out of the last ten years and made the cut eight of those times. Of those eight times, he’s finished 16th or better three times. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s ninth in this field in SG: Tee to Green, 13th on approach, and a very impressive sixth off the tee.
You’ll notice I didn’t mention Fleetwood. That’s because we’ll discuss him with another more conservative bet I’m going to make below.
Tommy Fleetwood Top Englishman +160 – One Unit
You’ll recall from my article two weeks ago that I love the Nationality Bets, and this is my favorite this week.
I like Fleetwood period, let alone as the top Englishman. There are eight options, so from a purely mathematical perspective, this bet has about 12% chance of hitting. But look at the other seven options. David Skimms and Callum Tarren we can safely ignore. Luke Donald has always been one of the more accurate golfers out there, but he is definitely past the peak of his career. Danny Willet is maddingly inconsistent and I don’t see him making a lot of noise here. The next three are the ones I am most worried about: Aaron Rai, Lee Westwood, and Ian Poulter. Each one has the potential to be the top Englishman.
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 8, 2021
But none of those three can claim the multiple recent successes that Fleetwood has at the Honda. He finished in fourth back in 2018 and third in 2020. He was the 54-hole leader back in 2020 only to see that slip away. I think he makes another great run this week, and I’ll happily wager better than even money that he doesn’t allow any of his fellow countrymen to finish ahead of him.
Greyson Sigg Top 40/Top 20 +140/+280 – Half Unit each
Embed from Getty Images
So I think you got a pretty good idea of who I like atop the leaderboard this week, but one of the things I mentioned previously is that I’m pretty good at picking longshots who do well. And Greyson Sigg is a long shot.
He’s a long shot, despite having been pretty consistent. He’s made eight of 11 cuts, but despite two top-25s, hasn’t made his arrival known. In this field, he’s 5th in Bogey Avoidance and 19th Par 4 Scoring, a pretty good combo for the challenging course that is PGA National.
That will do it for the 2022 Honda Classic Prop Bets for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let’s get that green!
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