2022 PGA Tour: Mexico Open Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2022 PGA Tour Mexico Open Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2022 PGA Tour Mexico Open Prop Bets! Or perhaps we should rename it "All the ways you can fade Jon Rham". It's not like he has a strong history here. In fact, no one has a strong history here, since the PGA just recently rewarded Vidanta a three-year contract. Other tours have played here, but it has been ages since the PGA tour has had a sanctioned event here.

So there is a lot of pressure on Vidanta to prove its worth. Kind of like Rham I suppose. But we'll get back to him in a moment. Let's get our running totals out of the way first.

After a couple of down weeks, we returned to our winning ways:

  • Balance Coming Into Week:  +18.2 Units
  • Units Wagered on Zurich: 2.25 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings):  3 Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +18.95 Units

Fading Jon Rham This Week?

So back to Rham. I'm not saying that Rham doesn't have the talent to win this week. I'm not even saying he won't win. But given how heavily he is favored, he pretty much has to win to be worth the wager. It reminds me of once upon a time when Tiger Woods was heavily favored in any week that he teed it up. I actually won mucho dinero betting against Tiger. The talent gap between Rham and those behind him is much smaller than the current odds indicate. And Tiger won so much, that it made sense what the books were doing. But Tiger was not only #1 on the PGA Tour, he was the clear #1 in the world. Rham is only #2 in the world right now and #23 in the FedEx Rankings. That's good, but not Tiger good.

99% of the players on Tour would love to have a "down year" that looks like Rham's. But he does not even have a victory yet this season and has just one top 10 finish in his last five tournaments. Does that really sound like a prohibitive favorite? If I had to guess, I think Rham finishes in the top 10. But I will generally fade him this week in favor of all the other values on the board.

What does that look like? Well, I'm glad you asked as here are my 2022 PGA Tour: Mexico Open Prop Bets Picks for this week.

2022 PGA Tour: Mexico Open Prop Bets Picks

Any of Abraham Ancer, Sebastian Munoz, or Carlos Ortiz to Win (+900 on DK) - Half Unit

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And one of the best ways to fade Rham is to take a couple of the other top ten options in a bundle this week. Ancer and Ortiz are both Mexicans, so expect them to have plenty of support from the fans here. Los Gringos might think Munoz is too, but he's from Bogota, Colombia. But he too should have some success here given his strong form coming into this tournament. He's made six of his last cuts in a row.

Carlos Oritz meanwhile has shot a combined 53 under in his last three starts in Mexico. Do you think he likes playing in his home country? A 2nd at the Mayakoba earlier this year underscores that.

But the best piece of this bet is Abraham Ancer. He's 8th in fairways hit. He's rested having not played since the Masters. And he has four top dozen finishes at the Mayakoba. Plus this bet is a perfect complement with our next one.

Matt Jones Top Rest of the World (+900 on DK) - Quarter Unit

Three of the top four options for this bet are the trifecta above. The fourth is Matt Jones. In some ways, this is a hedge bet. But I also like Jones this week in a weaker field independent of other bets. As my compadre Tyler Marling points out in his Fanduel preview this week, Jones has a great short game and is 5th in SG: Around the Green. He has three top 10 finishes already this season and I wouldn't be surprised if he adds a fourth.

Aaron Rai Top 40 Finish (+110 on DK) - One Unit

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We didn't get real wild this week, but I wanted to finish up with something a little more conservative. Yes, we are only betting 1.75 units total this week. But with no course history and a much weaker field, this is a good week to "go light". This is also a reminder that gambling success is just about what bets you make, but which ones you don't. And given that I have a hard time having zero action, these three bets will have to do.

Don't let my little preamble however downplay how much I like this bet. Rai has spent most of his short career playing internationally far more than he has over here. He has never played more than four PGA Tour events in any year and is technically a PGA rookie. Rai is playing a full PGA Tour schedule this season with ten tournaments played this calendar year already. He seems to have taken to the PGA Tour fairly well. The Englishman has three top 30 finishes already, including a T-4 at last week's Zurich Open.  I like Rai's game a ton. I am thus very tempted to be aggressive with him this week. Perhaps that is even more so given the weaker field. But with us getting plus payout to finish in the top 40, I'm happy to wager a whole unit on Rai.

Given the small scope of bets I have discussed this week, I will likely post some more 2022 PGA Tour Mexico Open Prop Bets later in the week on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg). Look for that, but for now, good luck and let's get that green!

Check out Tyler's 2022 PGA DFS: Mexico Open at Vidanta FanDuel Picks

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