My regular readers know I often like to play the local angle. But if there's one little nugget you should take away from my 2022 PGA Tour: RBC Candian Open Prop Bets Picks is this: No Canadian has won the Canadian Open since 1954.
I know some of you will argue, that "trends are often broken" and that a Canadian "is due to win". I understand that. But we can still pick Canadians to do well, without needing to pick them to win. Which is what I will be doing this week.
Although, before jumping into this week, we should look at last week quickly. Here is our up to date ledger:
- Balance Coming Into Last Week: +15.83 Units
- Units Wagered on Memorial: 3.25 Units
- Units Won (gross winnings): 1.35 Units
- Net Profit YTD: +13.93 Units
Kind of a "meh" week, but I'll take it given the aggressive nature of my bets last week. I will be aggressive again this week. If you want a conservative bet that I am extremely confident about it hitting, take Cameron Smith at -310 to be the top Australian. But things have been tight in the Strausberg household lately, so I'm really not looking to wager more than three units just to win one. But what other bets do I like? I'm glad you asked.
2022 PGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open Prop Bets Picks
FanDuel Golf Specials 3 Bet - All Top Ten Finish
Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith, and Corey Connors +3000 - Tenth of a Unit
These three golfers along with Shane Lowry are my four favorite golfers this week. So this was a way for me to get three of my picks to win in, and yes, I do think all three can finish in the top ten.
Let's start with McIlroy, who happens to be the defending champion. He's currently eighth in the OWGR (Overall World Golf Ranking) and second in scoring on Tour. Um...yeah, he's pretty good. Cameron Smith is an even better fourth in the OWGR. He has four Top 15 finishes in his last six, including a T-3 at the Masters and a victory at the Players Championship, i.e. "the fifth major". Smith is an impressive nearly two shots on Tour in SG: Total, ranking him second in that category. He's also second in Shots Gained: Approaching the Green. And when he arrives at the green, he can finish it off nicely, ranking 8th in SG: Putting.
Connors meanwhile will have all of Canada rooting for him. However, he has more than just the intangibles to support this pick. He's 27th in Driving Accuracy and 8th in SG: Off the Tee, which has helped him land fourth in Greens in Regulation. He's not bad at the chip-in either:
Corey Connors Chip-In 😮 pic.twitter.com/HIWRO3p77r
— Run Pure Sports (@RunPureSports) April 8, 2022
He has nine Top 25s this season but often falls just outside of the Top 10. This week he crashes the Top 10.
While we are discussing aggressive bets, let's take a quick dip into a first-round leader bet.
Sebastian Munoz FRL (+4500) - Tenth of a Unit
I'll restate it again--not a big fan of FRL bets, but I know they're popular so here is my obligatory bet for that category. I should add that I can't get the bottom half of this tweet out of my head:
If you blindly bet $100 on Sebastian Muñoz FRL since 2021, you'd be up $8,300
+8500 Byron Nelson
— John Haslbauer (@PGATout) May 13, 2022
The books seem to have caught on, as Munoz is now only +4500. But given that Munoz shot an opening-round 65 each of the last two RBCs played (on way to Top 30 finishes), I'll take the chance.
Now that we have the FRL bet out of the way, we can discuss one of my preferred bets to make--the nationality bets.
Rasmus Hojgaard (+340) Top Continental European Player- One Unit and CT Pan (+150) Top Asian Player Parlay (+1000) - Half Unit
To clarify, I am wagering a total of 1.5 units here. One-half unit on the whole parlay, which will pay 10 to 1, and a whole unit just on Hojgaard which pays +340. I want the payout to be a little higher on Pan to take him alone, but I do like him to be the top Asian player this week. The diminutive (5'6 145-pound) Pan's length off the tee is his biggest weakness but with a course this week that rewards accuracy over power, that will be muted. And he's one of the better players on link-styles courses, ranking 26th in Sand Saves Percentage. He's got an active streak of seven straight cuts made on Tour this year already. That's not something any of the other Asian players this week at St. Georges can say.
Hojgaard meanwhile has played 11 events worldwide this year and made the cut in every one of them. On the DP World Tour, he has Top 20 finishes in two of his last three starts. His PGA Tour experience is a relatively small sample. Yet in his two events this year, he has a T-18 at the Valero Texas Open and a sixth-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship. As mentioned, he only has eight rounds, so he fails to qualify for any statistical ranking. But he's one of the more accurate hitters. His 69.44% Greens-in-Regulation would tie him with Sam Burns in the top dozen on tour.
Hojgaard is under most folks' radar right now, but I'd put him on yours.
Tyler Duncan Top 40 +175 - One Unit
Embed from Getty Images
This is probably our most conservative bet this week of all of my 2022 PGA Tour: RBC Canadian Open Prop Bets Picks. But I like the match between Duncan and St. George's Golf Course this week. It should be no surprise that I'm pretty confident this hits.
"T-Dunks" will likely never be an elite golfer. He is far more representative of the regular "grinder" who has to shoot well each week he tees it up in order to keep his card. He's not going to impress anyone with his driving distance (153rd), but he is one of the most accurate off the tee (9th in Driving Accuracy). On a course that rewards accuracy, I like Duncan to crack the top 40, maybe even the top 30. He's got eight Top 40 finishes already this year and I like him to get a ninth this week.
That will do it for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open Prop Bets Picks. I'm wagering 2.7 units total this week. However, I will likely make some additional bets as the week progresses, so follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask any questions. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!
Check out Tyler's RBC Canadian Open FanDuel Picks!