This week is a bear for my "other job", so it will be a very simple week for my 2022 PGA Tour: Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets Picks article.
I'll have one top 10 finish, one nationality bet, and one "special". I will only be spending 2.25 units this week in fact.
Speaking of units, I was able to salvage a positive week on my published bet thanks to the RR bet I tweeted later in the week. Thanks to Brooke Henderson on the PGA Ladies side and Tony Finau easily giving up a Top 5 finish, we were able to salvage 1.62 units
For those following along, our updated ledger now looks like this:
- Balance Coming Into Last Week: +19.0675 Units
- Units Wagered on 3M: 4 Units
- Units Won (gross winnings): 5.62 Units
- Net Profit YTD: +20.6875 Units
This week the Tour stops off in Michigan and the field is a little stronger than last week. It's a great week to take some chances on long shots, but this week's bets are still going to be fairly conservative.
I'll be spending a total of 2.25 units this week. Here is where those bets will be placed.
2022 PGA Tour: Rocket Mortgage Classic Prop Bets Picks
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Cameron Young - Top 10 (+250, DK, +210 FD) - One Unit
There's clutch, and then there's THIS.
An incredible finish from Cameron Young to finish solo second @TheOpen 👏 pic.twitter.com/T5BPfE7zVJ
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 18, 2022
Young is on absolute fire right now, including a runner-up finish at The Open. His stats are strong too. He is second in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in putts per round and ninth in birdie average. On top of that, I found this little nugget of a stat: He’s one of just four golfers in this field who have gained at least 10 yards of distance per round and gained strokes with their putter.
Young actually seems to be pretty divisive this week as he is both a popular pick to win it all, but also a popular pick to fade. I'm in the former camp, but I see enough of what the latter is seeing that I'll keep it conservative.
Callum Tarren - Top Great Britain and Irish Player (+250) - One Unit
Callum Tarren joined Tom Hoge (R1) and Lee Hodges (R2) as players to hit 18 of 18 greens in regulation this week at TPC Twin Cities. In the first three years of the 3M Open (2019-2021), just seven players hit every green in regulation in a round at this event (1,361 rounds). https://t.co/Jj1r4p3b5b
— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) July 22, 2022
Tarren is on a tear right now. Last week's 7th place finish at the 3M Open gives him three Top 25s in his last four starts. Last week he gained nearly 10 strokes with his ball striking. He also seems to have upped his game on the greens, where he has gained strokes in seven of his last eight events. Russel Knox is the only golfer I'm worried about ruining this bet and this course is not exactly his wheelhouse.
Why not make this bet this week?
FanDuel Golf Special:
Any 3 of Tony Finau, Cameron Davis, Keegan Bradley and Patrick Cantalay - Top Ten Finish (+1000) - Quarter Unit
Prepped and ready for the @RocketClassic - it should be a great week of golf here in Detroit! pic.twitter.com/iCFIcnXeLC
— Patrick Cantlay (@patrick_cantlay) July 27, 2022
So before I figure out what I am planning to bet, I usually do my research and then rank my top 5 or 10 golfers for the week and circle a few other names farther down I like to pop. Well, all four of these players were in my top ten this week. Here's just a little bit of the reasoning for each one.
No one is hotter than Finau, given he won last week. He didn't just win though, he gained 4.9 strokes off the tee. Yes, after last's week win, we run the risk of him taking it just a little too easy this upcoming week. But given that he has top tens in half of his last six tournaments, I'm willing to take that risk.
Cameron Davis won here last year, so he obviously has the credentials to do it again. Additionally, he was third at Harbour Town and seventh at the Colonial. Both those tournaments had deeper fields than this one. I might be jinxing it, but I'm not overstating it that a top ten is practically a slam dunk.
Keegan Bradley meanwhile is 16th in SG: total on Tour, which easily puts him in the top ten for this week's field. He has six top tens this year already, including a T-7 at the US Open. That was obviously a much deeper field. So unless he "goes full Keegan" on us, I think he easily improves on last year's T-14 here.
Cantley meanwhile is the favored this week. Should be of little surprise given he has top-15 finishes in seven of his last eight starts. Furthermore, Cantlay is 19th in both SG: Off-the-Tee and 19th in SG: Putting; fourth in birdie average, and tops in par-5 scoring average on the season.
That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: Rocket Mortgage Prop Bets Picks. Follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) to see what other bets I might be contemplating, as my schedule gets a little lighter this evening. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!
Check out Tyler's FanDuel Picks for this week!
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