2022 PGA Tour: The 3M Open Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2022 PGA Tour: The 3M Open Prop Bets Picks

It's going to be a quick 2022 PGA Tour: The 3M Open Prop Bets Picks article.

That might be a positive thing given the beating I took last week. Had Rory not been beaten out by Cam, things might have been different. Coulda woulda shoulda. I still think my process was good, but things just didn't break right. That's how gambling works sometimes. So it goes. I'll lick my wounds and move on, but not without updating our ledger:

  • Balance Coming Into Last Week:¬† +24.5175 Units
  • Units Wagered on Scottish Open: 10.25 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings): 4.8 Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +19.0675 Units

This week the Tour stops off in Minnesota and unfortunately, the field is very weak. It's a great week to take some chances on long shots, but my published bets are going to be pretty basic this week.

I'll be spending a total of three units this week. Here is where those bets will be placed.

2022 PGA Tour: The 3M Open Prop Bets Picks

DK Promoted Parlay: Tony Finau Top 10/Sungjae Im Top 20/Hideki Matsuyama Top 40 (+544) - Half Unit

Anytime the sites promote a parlay that forces an eyebrow raise. And because of that, I am only wagering a half unit. But I do like the odds of this hitting. Matsuyama is -285 to finish in the top 40 and I don't think we need to go into a ton of detail about why the 14th-ranked player in the OWGR (overall world Golf Ranking) might be a good bet to finish in the top 40 in this field this week.

Im is -110 to finish in the top 20. He is 12th in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Total. That's for the Tour overall, not just this watered-down field. Im already has a T-15 here back in 2019 as well. No need to overthink this.

The toughest leg is Finau finishing in the top ten. But he's played well here before, having made the cut each of the three times he's played. And one of those includes a T-3 in 2020. He's coming in strong after a final round of 66 in The Open, but I'm far more encouraged by his three top ten finishes since May. Finau is actually the favorite for this tournament at +1100. I don't like him at those odds to win the whole thing, but we just need him to finish in the top 10. I think he does.

Adam Svensson - Top 5 (+850 FD) - Half Unit

I actually like Svensson a lot this week and I am currently leaning toward him as my winner this week. However, I'm going to be a little conservative and I like the value we are getting on FanDuel here (DK has this at only +600, a difference of nearly 30%). Svensson is coming in hot with seven made cuts in a row, including his recent 6th place finish in The Barbasol.

Svensson often tears it up at these weaker tournaments and this week should be no different. The Canadian should be used to the similar conditions found in Minnesota this week and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get his first PGA Tour win this week. The good news is doesn't even have to win for this bet to hit, as all we need is a Top 5 finish. The bad news is he hasn't had a top-five finish yet this year, but I'm optimistic that fact changes after this week.

Make the Cut Parlay: Joohyung Kim (-260), Cameron Davis (-280), and Davis Riley (-320) at +146 - One Unit

Yes, I typically prefer the longshots and going "big". But sometimes we simply need to go with the easier bets and take the smaller payout. And after last week's beating, I'm going a little more conservative this week. And it's hard not to like all three of these golfers to make the cut this week. Fortunately, we can combine them all into a parlay on FanDuel.

I was all aboard the Kim train last week and he came through last week with a made cut, which has granted him Special Temporary Membership on the PGA. Expect him to continue to build on that momentum.

The case for Cameron Davis is a little more concrete. Davis had a T-8 in the John Deere Classic to start the month and followed that up with a 6th place finish at the Barracuda Championship last week. He had a T-12 at the 3M in 2020. Davis could easily finish in the Top 20 this week. Making the cut should be even easier.

Riley is a little more rested than most of the rookies playing this week since he hasn't played since last June. However, he's 17-for-24 cuts made this year and has made eight in a row. He's ranked 23rd in the FedEx Rankings. Anyone in the top 25 of the FedEx should absolutely make the cut this week.

Nationality Prop: Top South African - Dylan Frittelli (-120) and Top Australian Player - Cameron Davis (+115) at +294 Total - One Unit

Well, my regular readers had to expect a nationality bet was coming sooner or later. And there's not a lot that really thrills me, but at nearly 3-1 payout, I like the possibilities here.

I've already discussed Cameron Davis, but I'll lay out the argument quickly for Frittelli. He seems to like the Mid-West and its bentgrass greens. His lone PGA win came at TPC Deere Run and even here at the 3M he already has a Top 20 finish in 2020. His scoring average in ten rounds at TPC Twin Cities is a solid 69. He's coming in off a T-28 at The Open, thanks to some very strong putting.

Meanwhile, one of the other South African options is Dawie Van Der Walt, who is not even in the top 600 in OWGR (compared to Frittelli's 139th). That should not be much of a challenge to beat him out. That leaves Garrick Higgo, who is no pushover but has far less experience than Frittelli. And that includes Higgo having never played TPC Twin Cities. Maybe I'm being a little aggressive still, but I like this bet.

That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: The 3M Open Prop Bets Picks. Follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) to see what other bets I might be contemplating, as I still got at least another day to make more bets. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!

Check out Tyler's FanDuel Picks for this week!

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