Ooof! Bad week for me last week as not a single one of my recommendations published in this space hit. I kind of had a bad feeling, which is why I only recommended bets totaling 1.45 units. And I am looking to get to the 2022 PGA Tour: THE PLAYERS Championship Prop Bets Picks as quickly as I can.
I am being very transparent with this column, so let’s get the ledger update out of the way.
- Balance Coming Into Week: +18.87 Units
- Units Wagered Last Week: 1.45 Units
- Units Won Last Week (gross winnings): ZERO Units
- Net Profit YTD: +17.42 Units
Despite the rough week last week, I’m not “laying up” at all this week. And I will continue to recommend an assortment of bets, but more so on the aggressive side than the conservative side.
I did recommend Tyrell Hatton last week and he had quite a tournament. And yes, I do like him again this week. However, this is an absolutely loaded field and I could make an argument for anyone this week. Which is part of the reason I am loath to pick a single winner this week.
But there are still plenty of bets to make. And as I said, I’m not going to suddenly go conservative, so we begin our 2022 PGA Tour: THE PLAYERS Championship Prop Bets Picks with quite an aggressive bet.
2022 PGA Tour: THE PLAYERS Championship Prop Bets Picks
Billy Horschel (+6000 on DraftKings) First Round Leader – Quarter Unit
This is aggressive, but it might be a pretty popular pick this week. Horschel always plays well during the Florida swing and this year is no exception. I’m not quite ready to bet him to win outright, but he has been scorching hot to start lately.
He finished last week in second place in the opening round. He is also second in opening round average, second only to Patrick Cantalay (whose payout is not even half of Horschel’s current odds).
Horschel has shot in the 60’s in all but one of his seven opening rounds this season, including five straight. (I told you he loves the Florida swing!). He’s also gained over 20 shots tee-to-green in the last three tournaments. Good enough for me to risk a quarter unit, especially one that would pay us 15 units!
Brooks Koepka Top 10 +450 (FanDuel) – One Unit
I’ll be honest, I bet Koepka to win as well. The value he presents is just too great. But that’s going to be a far tougher bet to hit, so I tapped the brakes a little here and will simply recommend you bet him to finish in the top ten.
Yes, it feels like Koepka has been kind of quiet lately, but he is still within the Top 20 OWGR (Overall World Golf Ranking). He gained 5.3 strokes at the Honda Classic, including 3.3 on approach, a key stat for this week. In his last three starts, he has two top 20 or better finishes. We know that Koepka sometimes dogs it in lesser tournaments, but the Players Championship is often called the “fifth major”. And it is one of the bigger tournaments Koepka has yet to win. There are early signs that the weather could make this even a tougher course, and that plays in Koepka’s favor.
2-Pick Parlay Group Picks: Chris Kirk (+300) and Si Woo Kim (+300) combined (+1500) – Half Unit
I wanted to do another round-robin this week, but too many groups had at least two golfers I really liked in them. But I really like both Chris Kirk and Si Woo Kim this week and I think the least they can do is beat the other four golfers in their respective groups.
Kim has a sparkling history here, having won the Players Championship back in 2017. He also finished in the Top 10 last year and is a great “horse for the course” this week.
Kirk meanwhile has three top 15 finishes here at Sawgrass but has been playing some of his best golf lately. Take a look at this:
Chris Kirk’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last Twelve Rounds
|Around-The-Green||Total||Short Game||Tee-To-Green||Ball Striking||Off-The-Tee||Putting|
Those strokes gained have allowed Kirk to post some strong finishes lately including a T-14 at the Phoenix Open, a T-7 at the Honda Classic, and a T-5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Those last two events have seen him squarely in contention in the final round on Sunday.
Taking either of these golfers to win their group is a strong bet, but I told you I’m going aggressive. I’ll take both to do so, please.
Daniel Berger or Will Zalatoris to Win +1900 (DK) – Half Unit
The Players Championship is a great tournament to take a chance on a “long shot” as even those in the bottom quarter of the field are extremely talented. And let’s be clear, neither Zalatoris nor Berger are in the bottom quarter. But we essentially taking a 25% reduction on Berger’s payout in exchange to add Zalatoris to the ticket. And I really like Zalatoris this week.
But let’s start with Berger. He has shown an affinity for this course and has two top tens already at the Players Championship, including one last year. He’s coming in strong after a fourth-place finish at the Honda. He’s fourth in driving accuracy and sixth or better in three different shots gained categories: SG Approaching the Green, SG Tee to Green, and SG Total.
One of the things about TPC Sawgrass is that it tests all aspects of your game. So even if Berger ends up in a bunker, I am not worried as he happens to be first on tour in sand save percentage as well. I might like the chalk more (yes, I have a bet on Morikawa to win), but I don’t love the value we’re getting on any of them. Berger, however, is my favorite bet to win it outside of the Top Five and I like the value we are getting.
Meanwhile, Zalatoris is no slouch either. He doesn’t get overwhelmed by the magnitude of the course or the situation. All he did in his rookie appearance last year was put up four rounds of red numbers. That landed him in 21st place, one of the many impressive feats in Zalatoris’ young career. Meanwhile, all he has done this year is top the TOUR in SG: Approach-the-Green so far this season and rank a piddly third in SG: Tee-to-Green.
That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: THE PLAYERS Championship Prop Bets Picks for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let’s get that green!
Check out Tyler’s 2022 PGA DFS THE PLAYERS Championship FanDuel Picks!