2022 PGA Tour: U.S. Open Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg

The 2022 PGA Tour: U.S. Open Prop Bets Picks will be chock full of bets this week. My suggestion is you take your favorites and not bet all of them. However, I always bet heavier during Major weeks, and this week is no exception.

It doesn't hurt that we are coming off a profitable week either. Although last week was kind of a strange week with all the late withdrawals. For example, I really liked C.T. Pan, but his withdrawal voided one of the suggested bets I made. So for those of you following me on Twitter, you know I pivoted:

Just another reason to follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg). But that of course helped get into the profit zone. With that small profit, here is what our ledger looks like coming into the US Open.

  • Balance Coming Into Last Week:  +13.93 Units
  • Units Wagered on RBC Canadian Open: 2.2 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings): 3 Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +14.73 Units

The U.S. Open is always one of my favorite majors of the season and fortunately, it typically coincides with Fathers Day. So as my family lets me relax on Sunday evening, see below for the bets I will be following.

2022 PGA Tour: U.S. Open Open Prop Bets Picks

We start with one to help us cover the chalk:

DraftKings "Big Guns" Bet:

Rory McIlory, Justin Thomas, John Rham, Scottie Scheffler, or Xander Schaufele to Win: +275 - One Unit

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This might actually be my "hedge bet". I don't really like the value on most of the golfers above to win. But they all have the potential to win this week at Brookline Country Club. However, rather than fade a few of them, I'm going to simply lump them into one bucket, just in case the chalk hits this week. There are far dumber bets you can make this week.

Of course finding winners is always a challenge, but even predicting those to make the cut can be difficult.

To Make The Cut Parlay: 1.25 Units Total (+468 Total for Half Unit and +269 Total for Quarter Unit each for RR Triplet):

Corey Connors (-260); Seamus Power (-192); Davis Riley (-180); & Abraham Ancer (-136)

This bet looks more complicated than it is. We are betting on the four golfers above to all make the cut and giving ourselves a little insurance in case just three make the cut. This kind of bet unfortunately cannot be made on DraftKings, so the odds listed above are FanDuel sports betting odds. You may be able to find better odds on other sites. But in the meantime, I really like all four of these golfers this week.

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Connors is 26th in Driving Accuracy and 4th in Greens in Regulation (GIR). Coming in hot with two Top 20 finishes in his last two tourneys, I think he has a shot of winning this thing, let alone making the cut.

Power is 26th in the FedEx Rankings. He should avoid the penal rough so common in a U.S. Open due to being 9th in GIR, plus he's 4th in Bogey Avoidance. He might be custom-made for a U.S Open.  Riley meanwhile is on an absolute tear, having last missed the cut in mid-April. Oh, and his last six finishes have all been Top 20s. He has missed the cut in his last two U.S. Opens. His game is so much stronger now.

Ancer is third in Overall Driving Accuracy which helps explain how he is currently 20th in the OWGR (Overall World Golf Rankings). He missed the U.S. Open cut in 2021 but made it in the two previous editions. This week he proves last year was the aberration.

So who do I like to win it this week?

A Tenth of a Unit on Each of the Below to Win - One Unit Total

If just one of these bets hit, we will make a profit on this set of bets and possibly for the whole week. You might need to hunt around as the odds listed beside the golfer I found on either DraftKings or Fan Duel. Three that I like, I also mentioned above: Ancer (+9000), Connors (+6000), and Power (+10000).  But for the other seven, we'll start with the shortest odds and work our way up, giving you a reason or two why I like each of these.

Patrick Cantalay (+2400)

Cantalay is fourth in the OWGR.  Despite just a dozen tourneys this season, he has seven top-ten finishes including a victory. And we're getting that at 24 to 1? Yes, please.

Will Zalatoris (+3000)

Can you imagine if the 14th in the OWGR could simply putt a little better? If he simply putts even with the field, his 6th in GIR, 1st in SG: Approaching the Green, and 2nd in SG: Tee to Green can do the rest.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3000)

He doesn't have a win on Tour this year, but he's been knocking on the door. Fitzpatrick has a T-5 at the PGA Championship and a T-14 at the Masters already this year. Could the return to Brookline Country Club, where he won the U.S. Amateur Title in 2013, be all he needs to finally get his win at a major?

Keegan Bradley (+10000)

The Native New Englander often plays well in the North East and is playing some of the best golf he's played in years.  He already has a PGA Championship on his resume, wouldn't be surprised to see him in the hunt come Sunday.

Gary Woodland (+16000)

Woodland is probably the shakiest of all these bets, given that he has missed four of his last six cuts. But he's not having a bad year, as he still has six top 25s, four of which were top tens. But he won the U.S. Open as recently as 2019 and there is no reason he should be 160-1. Probably won't happen, but the value is insane.

Luke List (+21000)

List is currently 25th in the FedEx Rankings, but he's an even better 15th in GIR and 6th in SG: Tee to Green. Known for his length off the tee, he's a surprising 23rd in SG: Approaching the Green. This is more of a hunch, but I think he's going to surprise some folks this week.

Scott Stallings (+37000)

You can't win a U.S. Open while putting poorly. And Stallings is one of the better putters on tour (41st in One-Putt Percentage and 38th in SG: Putting). But when taking a 370-1 shot, it's usually because of the intangibles. Stallings was born in Worchester, Massachusetts. He still roots for the Patriots, Red Sox, and Celtics. And yes, everyone wants to win at a U.S. Open. But few are motivated more to delight the Boston crowd than Stallings:

First Round Leader: Joaquin Niemann (+5000) - Quarter Unit Total

Time for the obligatory first-round leader bet. Yes, I'm only betting a quarter unit because I generally don't like them, but I'm a little more confident this week than usual. For one, Niemann has been an FRL already this season, when he shot a 63 at the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational back in February.  And the reason that's particularly noteworthy is that Riviera and Brookline are both very difficult courses that boast similar traits.

Furthermore, Niemann also has the lowest first-round scoring average on tour this season. Since he last finished as an FRL, he has been one of the top ten finishers after the first round four times. And he's started well in majors too, having opened with a 68 most recently at the PGA Championship. If I make any FRL bets this week, this is the one I'm making.

That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: U.S. Open Prop Bets Picks. For those scoring at home, I'm wagering 3.5 units total this week. However, I will likely make some additional bets as the week progresses, so follow me on Twitter and feel free to ask any questions. In the meantime, good luck with your bets, and let's get that green!

Check out Tyler's U.S. Open PGA DFS FanDuel Picks and Favorites to Fade!

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