2022 PGA Tour: Valero Texas Open Prop Bets Picks

by Mark Strausberg
2020 WGC-Mexico Championship Tiers

Before getting into my 2022 PGA Tour Valero Texas Open Prop Bets Picks, let’s get the ledger out of the way quickly because my printed picks stunk it up. Wesley Bryan failed to crack the top 40 and Jason Kokrak wasn’t even that close, failing to make the cut.

But at least we are still up on the year and here’s where we are right now.

  • Balance Coming Into Week:  +15.17 Units
  • Units Wagered for Valspar: 1.75 Units
  • Units Won (gross winnings): ZERO Units
  • Net Profit YTD: +13.42 Units

Between the donut at the Valspar and the matchplay format at the WGC last week, I took a week off. Slumps are gonna happen. I’m just going to keep riding through it and I look forward to the Masters, where I typically do well. So I am looking to build up my stake so I can invest heavily next week.

In the meantime, however, we have the Valero Texas Open, which is going to be a tough tournament to handicap. The reasoning is simple. Most of the talented players are already in the field for the Masters and will treat this as a tune-up for the Masters. In a vacuum, I’d take Rory McIlroy for example, but I’m sure he’s looking ahead to next week so he can win the one major he hasn’t. Last year’s winner, Jordan Spieth, meanwhile would love to add another green jacket to his collection. Yet I like him this week playing in his home state. It’s hard to win back-to-back on the PGA tour, so his win equity is not as high as I would like.

My two favorite golfers this week might be Chris Kirk and Corey Connors. Are they worth betting on? Let’s dive into that and the rest of my 2022 PGA Tour: Valero Texas Open Prop Bets Picks.

2022 PGA Tour: Valero Texas Open Prop Bets Picks

Any 3 of Corey Connors, Gary Woodland, Chris Kirk, and Abraham Ancer top 10 finish +1700 – Quarter Unit


I absolutely love this bet under the specials on FanDuel. I have both Connors and Kirk in my top ten this week, so I am pretty confident they both can end up there and that’s assuming neither hoists the trophy.  Conners is top five in tee to green, good drives, and 6th in bogey avoidance over the last three months. He won here not long ago, but also finished T-14 here last year. Kirk finished T-6 here last year and seems to absolutely love this course as he’s 5-for-7 here with three top 10s.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see either Woodland or Ancer crash the front page of the leaderboard as well. Woodland also finished T-6 here last year and is coming in hot with a pair of T-5s to open the Florida swing and T21 at Copperhead. Ancer meanwhile is four-for-four here having never missed a cut and is 16th in OWGR (overall world golf ranking). I wouldn’t bet on all four cracking the top ten, but I like the chances of three of them doing so, especially at +1700.

Rasmus Hojgaard, Top Continental European (+250 on DK, +260 on FD) – One Unit

We know that I like the nationality bets and I need something on the more conservative side. This is my favorite. Hojgaard has made eight straight cuts worldwide and his solo 6th last week helped him gain entry to this tourney. Simply put, he’s ranked higher in the OWGR (Overall World Golf Rankings) than the other seven options and I don’t see any of them doing better.

FYI, I do think Hojgaard may see some tough competition from Guido Magliozi, but I’ll likely just bet him separately to be in the Top 40 (+400 on FD, +250 on DK). But I’m confident enough in Hojgaard to bet a whole unit on him.

Matsuyama to miss the cut (+320 FD, +330 on DK) – Half Unit

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I feel like lately, I’ve been pretty good at picking top golfers to fade, so Matsuyama is my pick this week. After an opening round of 67 last year, Matsuyama proceeded to shoot 74, 73, 71. I’m not so sure he gets the first-round lift this year, as accuracy and putting are not his strengths. As I mentioned earlier, some of the top players view this just as a “tune-up”.

Matsuyama hasn’t played a Tour event in over three weeks, so this is a chance for him to shake the rust off. Therefore, I put his chances of making the cut around maybe 60%, thereby giving us some value on this bet.

Spieth First Round Leader (+2500 on FD, +2600 on FD ) – Quarter Unit

I might still put a fraction of a fraction of a unit on Camillo Villegas, who was last year’s Valero Texas Open’s first-round leader. He is currently getting +11000 odds to be the FRL, but I’m gonna pass for now. I’m going to go instead with a fairly “conservative” as you can go with an FRL bet, and take Spieth at +2600.

Spieth was obviously behind Villegas last year, but he still managed to shoot an opening round of 66. I think he once again starts hot. He definitely has at least a 5% chance of being our first-round leader, possibly an even higher percentage, so at +2600, I love the value.

Select Tournament Matchups Round Robin on DraftKings: 7-legger parlay (.2 units at +6811), 6-legger (.1 units each), and 5-legger (.1 units each) – Three Units Total

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Many of my bets this week are on FanDuel because of the slightly higher odds, but that site won’t let us parlay a bunch of tournament matchup legs. So I’m doing this on DraftKings. If all the legs of this bet hit, it will pay out nearly 84 units. To be honest, I’m not really banking on that happening. Yet I would not be surprised to see us hit five or six legs, which would certainly make us a profit. The matchups I’m betting as part of this round-robin include the following:

  • Kirk (-110 over Ancer)
  • Hadwin (-120 over Finau)
  • Kizzire (-130 over K.H. Lee)
  • Luke List (-110 over Pereira)
  • McIlroy (-180 over Matsuyama)
  • Woodland (-120 over McNealy)
  • Lanto Griffin (+105 over Ghim)

I’ve already talked about Kirk and Woodland. I’ve also mentioned that I am fading Matsuyama this week. Let’s take a quick look at the other matchups.

Hadwin is coming in strong with back-to-back top tens and had a Top-25 finish here last year. Finau meanwhile is struggling a bit this year, having last notched a Top 25 back in January. Finau missed the cut here last year as well. The trends are just too much in favor of Hadwin. Next, Pereira is playing this course for the first time while List finished in the top 20 last year, already has a win this year, and is currently 11th in the FedEx Rankings.

Griffin meanwhile finished ten spots ahead of Ghim here last year. I suspect the reason Ghim is favored here is because of his recent T6 at the Players Championship. However, Griffen has a far better statistical profile, including a higher ranking in both the FedEx and OWGR. I wanted to include at least one plus odds pick in this round-robin, and Griffen over Ghim was the choice.

And I like K.H. Lee a lot in general, so it is tempting to go the other way. However, I really like Kizzire this week. He finished T9 here last year with a field-low 65 in the final round. He is having a decent year, having cashed in seven of eight starts in 2022. Three have been top 25s, including the extremely deep field at the Players Championship. Definitely one of my favorite legs in this bet.

 



That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: Valero Texas Open Prop Bets Picks for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let’s get that green!


Check out Tyler’s 2022 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open FanDuel Picks!

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