Father Time may never let up, but Mother Nature can be a real you-know-what, can’t she? I am hoping she is a little nicer this week to allow my 2022 PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Prop Bets Picks to succeed.
But she wasn’t so nice last week and I put up a big fat donut with my printed recommendations. I did personally eke out a profit with some fourth-round bets and some great DFS plays. But I’m excluding those for our running tab.
Here’s what that looks like:
- Balance Coming Into Week: +17.42 Units
- Units Wagered Last Week: 2.25 Units
- Units Won Last Week (gross winnings): ZERO Units
- Net Profit YTD: +15.17 Units
Bit of a rough week last week and I admittedly spread myself thin: I invested quite a lot into the NCAA basketball tourney. Therefore I think I’m going to to a little more conservative than I usually might. If you want to go with some more aggressive options, I wouldn’t advise against it. I’ll be probably making some very aggressive small wagers myself.
But for now, we start our 2022 PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Prop Bets Picks with someone gambling on themselves.
2022 PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Prop Bets Picks
Wesley Bryan Top 40 (+500) – One Unit
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When a player needs to be very selective in what tournaments they enter and they still choose to play the difficult Copperhead Course at Innisbrook, that grabs my attention.
Wesley Bryan is on his last tournament of a medical extension. He has to finish in the top 5 to get his exemption. I’m not Pollyanna–that’s not happening. However, if Bryan finishes in the top 50, he’ll gain conditional status. I do like his chance to do so and in his efforts to do so, I suspect he will land in the top 40.
This course fits him really well. He’s has a T7 and T48 in two attempts at the Valspar. Bryan is 26th in sand save percentage, which also helps explain why he is 23rd in Shots Gained: Approach the Green. Will he finish in the top 25 this week? I’m not confident enough to bet on that, but I feel like Bryan’s chances are at least 30% to finish in the top 40. We are getting five to one here, and I’ll gladly take that edge.
Jason Kokrak Top 5 +700 – Half Unit
Copperhead features five par-3s and Kokrak is a master of exploiting those. He is first on tour in Par-3 scoring average. But wait, there are plenty more reasons to like Kokrak this week as well.
He also has three top 20 finishes in his last three trips here. The only reason I’m not taking him to win is I’d like to see him coming in a little hotter. However, he’s still been pretty steady, having three top-30 finishes in five starts this year. He is currently 19th in FedEx standing and 27th in OWGR. I’m only betting half a unit, but the 3.5 units we are going to win on this will easily put on back on the plus side. Furthermore, I wanted to be a little conservative to balance things out as I feel morally obligated to give you some kind of aggressive bet. And I might even make the next type of bet a regular feature here.
The “3TP”: Dean Burminster Top 5 (+410), Anna Nordqvist to win (+550), and Victor Hovland Top 5 (+250) – (+11502) – Quarter Unit
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The “3TP” is short for Three Tour Parlay. Truth be told, I try to make one of these every week, but sometimes the gambling sites don’t cooperate. And that’s assuming that there are a) three tours all having tourneys in one week that I b) feel comfortable betting on the options. But I like this bet a lot.
Nordqvist is the shakiest part of this parlay. But currently 16th in the Rolex Ranking with nine career victories and 75 Top 10s, she’s the favored for a reason. Happy to eat the chalk on that one. Dean Burminster is off to a strong start again this season on the European tour. He’s made the cut in all five of his European Tour events. He’s finished T-26 or better, including a second-place finish at the Dimension Data Pro-Am. It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see him finishing in the top five again this week.
And that brings us to Hovland. I really like him to win the Valspar Championship this week. But this is a case where we don’t need to be greedy on the third leg. Let’s give ourselves just a little wiggle room, just in case. Hovland might not be the favorite to win, but he is a very popular pick this week and with good reason. As my compatriot, Tyler, mentioned in his DFS preview, Hovland finished third here last year. He is also third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained. Three is apparently the magic number for Hovland as he is also third in the OWGR. Magic or not, if he finishes third this week to complete this three-leg parlay, I’ll be dancing a post-St. Patty’s Day jig!
That will do it for the 2022 PGA Tour: Valspare Championship Prop Bets Picks for now, but follow me on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) where I will likely post additional golf bet thoughts closer to tee time. Good luck and let’s get that green!
Check out Tyler’s 2022 PGA DFS Valspar Championship FanDuel Picks!